Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Gass3268]

Kenosha, Rock, Marathon, Dodge, (EDIT) and St. Croixare the counties closest to finishing counting at both the AP and DDHQ. They therefore should be the focus of any serious analysis.

Karofsky is doing 2% better than Neubauer in Kenosha.

Kelly is doing 1% better than Hagedorn in Rock.

Karofsky is doing 7%(!) better in Marathon.

Kelly is doing 3% better in Dodge.

(EDIT) Karofsky doing 4% better in St. Croix.

Beloit, Milton and Edgerton are all 100% out in Rock County.

[Gass3268]

Milwaukee County is a 25% swing to the left compared to the average State Supreme Court race.

[Gass3268]

These are judges Walker appointed for Milwaukee County:

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1249837663970111488?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1249850340909953025?s=20

[Gass3268]

What happened in Rock County that made it look bad for Karofsky earlier this evening?

All that reported where the rurals and Janesville. Beloit and a lot of the other medium sized Democratic cities were still out.

[Gass3268]

yes, but its ancestrally Democratic. Lots of dairy farmers and union workers here, who tend to be non-college white voters. Trump did very well here, but this is the tipping-point district for WI

Actually, this area was pretty Republican up until Bill Clinton and they loved Obama. Northwest Wisconsin was the more ancestral Democratic area.

[Gass3268]

Mayor-Elect of Wausau

https://twitter.com/katierosenberg/status/1249817824689881090?s=20

[Gass3268]

This is the east Isthmus of Madison (Atwood, Marquette, Willy Street, etc.)

https://twitter.com/jjoyce/status/1249886731501002752?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/bcburden/status/1249897031386177536?s=20

[Gass3268]

Dane County hit 80% and still an outside chance it outvotes Milwaukee County.

[Gass3268]

Thank God!!!!


BTW, is Kelly from racine or something?

Racine County is a good bellwether county during Presidential years, but leans pretty strong towards the right in any other year. The western part of the county is like the most Republican areas of the WOW counties (Extremely Republican), the suburbs around the city are a lot like Franklin or Oak Creek (Moderately Republican) and then the City of Racine itself is very Democratic, but the turnout can fluctuate a lot as it's a pretty diverse city, especially by Wisconsin standards.

[Gass3268]

Currently the second largest number of voters in Wisconsin State Supreme Court history, only 2016 had more people vote.

[Gass3268]

Dane County has outvoted Milwaukee County. Currently by 1,563 votes

[Gass3268]

The villages of Bayside and Whitefish Bay both mailed out ballots to every registered voter and had the highest turnout % of any locality in the state. Hopefully other municipalities do the same on their own for the November election. Looking at you Milwaukee and Madison.

[Gass3268]

Supreme Court Map for Dane County:



Karofsky got 89% of the vote in Madison! There were some wards where she was getting over 97% of the vote.

[Gass3268]

Is there anything stopping the local governments of Madison and Milwaukee from mailing ballots to every registered voter the way those other cities did? If no, seems like a no-brainer.

$$$

[Gass3268]

I think absentee ballot request forms were mailed, not actual ballots. Might be wrong, though. If it was request forms, that would be extra processing costs vs just sending them a ballot.

Sounds like you are correct, looks like Milwaukee is going to follow suit for November:

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1250505402854375425?s=20

[Gass3268]

^^ That is one way for states to mitigate turnout/safety issues without relying on changes to the law from Congress or the state legislature. It might even encourage Republicans to make the process easier because if all the major cities do it, they won't want to be left out. On the other hand, they could just as easily seek to prevent cities from doing this.

In some states, it might not be a viable option if the absentee request rules are too onerous. For instance, I'm not sure if Texas has any plans to make fear of getting COVID-19 a valid excuse in requesting an absentee ballot. For TX, these are the only excuses listed:

https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/voter/reqabbm.shtml

To be eligible to vote early by mail in Texas, you must:

    be 65 years or older;
    be disabled;
    be out of the county on election day and during the period for early voting by personal appearance; or
    be confined in jail, but otherwise eligible.

The bare minimum compromise in Congress should be to at least force states to allow people to request absentee ballots if they fear getting sick. Most states already allow this, so it's really just for the holdouts .

https://www.austinmonitor.com/stories/2020/04/texas-officials-try-to-clarify-who-can-vote-by-mail-but-they-might-not-be-able-to-just-say-everyone/

In their advisory, state officials said, "the Election Code defines ‘disability’ to include ‘a sickness or physical condition that prevents the voter from appearing at the polling place on election day without a likelihood of needing personal assistance or of injuring the voter’s health.’ (Sec. 82.002).”

Officials said any voter who meets that definition must be able to apply for ballot by mail.

AG Paxton disagrees and might arrest/charge anyone that says otherwise.

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1250508771190849536?s=20

[Gass3268]

Fast changing story:

https://twitter.com/ACLU/status/1250514460399321094?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1252724969387315201?s=20

[Gass3268]

Here is the Presidential Primary party turnout trend map:

[Gass3268]

It looks like the state supreme court is going to throw out Governor Evers' current coronavirus public health orders, either 5/2 or 4/3.  Hagedorn seemed undecided, maybe mildly supporting the governor/public health office.  The other 4 conservatives all seemed adamantly opposed.  One even compared it to Korematsu.

Aren't there now three Democrats since we just picked up a WI SC seat?  If Hagedorn also ends up supporting it then that would be 4-3 in favor of the public health orders, no?

Term starts July 1st.

Yeah, lame duck period unfortunately. No reason there couldn't be instant replacement.

[Gass3268]

And it gets struck down 4/3, with Hagedorn writing the dissent.

Finally!!! About time! Evers is a sure GONER in 2022 if it's a Biden Midterm.

Hopefully Evers will reinstate the popular and reasonable restrictions once Kelly is booted from the court in August. I'm going back to Wisconsin this weekend and I will boycott any business that recklessly opens up.

[Gass3268]

And it gets struck down 4/3, with Hagedorn writing the dissent.

Finally!!! About time! Evers is a sure GONER in 2022 if it's a Biden Midterm.

Hopefully Evers will reinstate the popular and reasonable restrictions once Kelly is booted from the court in August. I'm going back to Wisconsin this weekend and I will boycott any business that recklessly opens up.

So you won't go to any businesses that you wouldn't have bene able to go to anyway? Good for you.

Thank you!

[Gass3268]

Huge news from the Wisconsin Elections Commission:

https://twitter.com/SJohnsonWPR/status/1265774487427039232?s=20