Wisconsin Legislature Ratings

[Gass3268]

Going to do my best to provide ratings for the Wisconsin State Legislature. Plan is to start with the hard part, which is the State Assembly. To inform my ratings I am using the 2016 Assembly results, 2016 Presidential results, 2012 Presidential results, Presidential swing, average results of the 2014 Secretary of State and State Treasurer races (ends up being essentially a tie), 2017 State Supreme Court, most recent fundraising results, cash on hand and recent special elections results.

To see the maps of the districts that I am discussing, view the links that are here.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 1

Counties: Brown, Door, Kewaunee & Manitowoc
Largest City: Sturgen Bay
Republican: Joel Kitchens (Incumbent)
Independent: Roberta Thelen

Clinton: 40.19%
Trump: 55.31%

Swing: 15.02% Republican

Democratic Average: 44.92%
Republican Average: 50.64%

Dallet: 55.58%
Screnock: 44.42%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 39.85%
2016 Assembly Republican: 60.11%

Likely Republican

Notes: I would have rated this race at Lean Republican or maybe even Toss Up if the Democrats actually nominated a candidate here. Roberta Thelen reached out the party but never heard anything back, so she decided to run as an Independent. A real own goal by the Wisconsin Democratic Party. State Senator Caleb Frostman dominated this district in his special election victory and will probably do quite well here in his rematch in November. That's the only reason I'm keeping this off of Safe Republican.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 2

Counties: Brown & Manitowoc
Largest City: Two Rivers
Democrat: Mark Grams  
Republican: Shae Sortwell

Clinton: 35.98%
Trump: 58.55%

Swing: 13.75% Republican

Democratic Average: 40.41%
Republican Average: 54.17%

Dallet: 50.37%
Screnock: 49.63%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 30.56%
2016 Assembly Republican: 69.29%

Safe Republican

Notes: This is Andre Jacque's district who is seeking a rematch against the aforementioned Caleb Frostman. Even if Jacque was off the ticket, this is an extreamly Republican district. I have to imagine he'll help Sortwell. Plus Grams has raised zero money.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 3

Counties: Calumet & Outagamie
Largest City: Kimberly
Democrat: Scott Gavin
Republican: Ron Tusler (Incumbent)

Clinton: 39.25%
Trump: 54.77%

Swing: 9.51% Republican

Democratic Average: 40.17%
Republican Average: 54.80%

Dallet: 53.06%
Screnock: 46.94%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 39.46%
2016 Assembly Republican: 60.54%

Likely Republican

Notes: Frostman narrowly won this district in his special election victory, but it's a pretty strong Republican district in partisan elections. Dallet winning here by 7 and Obama only losing by 6 convinced me to at least push this off of Safe Republican.

[Gass3268]

I’m worrried about Caleb Frostman winning the full term in a higher turnout race. Baldwin might carry this seat, but Walker almost certainly will too.

Yeah, the fear I have is Democrats pick up 17 and either 5 or 19, but lose 1 and therefore don't take the chamber.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 4

Counties: Brown
Largest City: Ashwaubenon
Democrat: Terry Lee
Republican: David Steffen (Incumbent)

Clinton: 42.82%
Trump: 51.96%

Swing: 6.08% Republican

Democratic Average: 43.83%
Republican Average: 51.30%

Dallet: 56.46%
Screnock: 43.54%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 40.23%
2016 Assembly Republican: 59.65%

Lean Republican

Notes: This is a very compact Green Bay suburban district. It typically leans to the Republicans as visible in the data. However it actually trended to the Democrats compared to the rest of the state in 2016 and Dallet won big here in the Supreme Court race. The polling has been all over the place as to what party is doing the best in the Northeast part of the state, but if the Democratic suburban surge happens, this could be a place to watch. However, the Democrat here has raised almost no money, which could matter in a close contest.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 5

Counties: Brown & Outagamie
Largest City: Kaukauna
Democrat: Matt Lederer
Republican: Jim Steineke (Incumbent)

Clinton: 5.60%
Trump: 58.94%

Swing: 16.17% Republican

Democratic Average: 38.70%
Republican Average: 55.87%

Dallet: 50.40%
Screnock: 49.60%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 35.40%  
2016 Assembly Republican: 64.58%

Safe Republican

Notes: Represented by the current Assembly Majority Leader, this district is pretty rural with some suburban areas at the north and the south. It's another district, like AD-03, that helps chop the Fox Cities into pieces. Really can't see a way this district becomes competitive.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 6

Counties: Brown, Outagamie, Shawano & Waupaca
Largest City: Shawano
Democrat: Richard Sarnwick
Republican: Gary Tauchen (Incumbent)

Clinton: 30.90%
Trump: 64.34%

Swing: 22.84% Republican

Democratic Average: 37.00%
Republican Average: 57.54%

Dallet: 45.36%
Screnock: 4.64%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 29.82.%  
2016 Assembly Republican: 70.15%

Safe Republican

Notes: This is a very conservative, rural, and German district centered around Shawano County. There is zero chance of a flip here.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 7

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee - Southwest
Democrat: Daniel Riemer (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested (Matthew Bughman - Libertarian)

Clinton: 55.20%
Trump: 39.20%

Swing: 0.60% Democratic

Democratic Average: 52.31%
Republican Average: 42.76%

Dallet: 57.23%
Screnock: 42.77%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 56.14%
2016 Assembly Republican:38.27%

Safe Democrat

Notes: This is a white district in the Southwest part of the City of Milwaukee, plus West Milwaukee and Eastern West Allis. In a really horrible year for the Democrats, like worse than 2014 or 2016, this seat could get competative. However, the Republicans do not even have anyone running here this cycle.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 8

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee - Milwaukee - Southeast Central
Democrat: JoCasta Zamarripa (Incumbent)
Republican: Angel Sanchez

Clinton: 82.43%
Trump: 14.14%

Swing: 5.44% Republican

Democratic Average: 76.84%
Republican Average: 17.64%

Dallet: 76.78%
Screnock: 23.22%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.45%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This is the most Hispanic district in the state at 65.8%. Some districts had over 35,000 total votes in the Presidential election in 2016. This district only had 11,595. Still, this is obviously a safe Democratic district.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 9

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee - Southwest Central
Democrat: Marisabel Cabrera (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 71.60%
Trump: 23.86%

Swing: 2.54% Republican

Democratic Average: 67.69%
Republican Average: 27.01%

Dallet: 66.42%
Screnock: 33.58%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 97.97%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This is the other Hispanic opportunity district at 47.8% Hispanic. Another low turnout district, with only 16,790 voters in the 2016 Presidential election. No Republican is running here, which is the case for almost all of these Milwaukee seats.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 10

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City:
Democrat: David Bowen (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 89.09%
Trump: 8.09%

Swing: 0.87% Democratic

Democratic Average: 85.95%
Republican Average: 10.54%

Dallet: 87.54%
Screnock: 12.46%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 99.11%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: The first of 6 majority African American districts in Milwaukee, all of which are uncontested. This one helps the Republicans gerrymander SD-8 and their corresponding Assembly districts by pulling out the very rich, white, and liberal suburb of Shorewood and putting in with very black precincts. If you were going by community of interests, they would fit better with the other Northeast Milwaukee County suburbs or the City of Milwaukee lakeshore.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 11

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee - North
Democrat: Jason Fields (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 85.40%
Trump: 12.20%

Swing: 1.11% Republican

Democratic Average: 83.26%
Republican Average: 13.73%

Dallet: 75.64%
Screnock: 24.36%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.76%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: Another African-American district in Milwaukee. Nothing majorly interesting here, except you can see how much better Democrats/Liberals do in these districts in the Presidential contests compared to midterms and non-partisan elections.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 12

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee - Northwest
Democrat: LaKeshia Meyers
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 79.28%
Trump: 17.84%

Swing: 0.97% Democratic

Democratic Average: 75.87%
Republican Average: 20.89%

Dallet: 69.02%
Screnock: 30.98%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.42%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: All the action in this district came in the Democratic Primary as LaKeshia Meyers was able to knock off long time Representative Fred Kessler. Kessler served the Assembly from 1961-1972, before running again in 2004. Was an example of a white Democrat representing an increasingly African American district.

[Gass3268]

I love this. Thank you.

Thank you for the kind words! I was wondering if anyone was actually reading this. A few of the upcoming seats will be more interesting.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 13

Counties: Milwaukee & Waukesha
Largest City: Wauwatosa - South
Democrat: Dennis Raymond McBride
Republican: Rob Hutton (Incumbent)

Clinton: 46.60%
Trump: 48.01%

Swing: 14.41% Democratic

Democratic Average: 38.03%
Republican Average: 57.38%

Dallet: 49.00%
Screnock: 51.00%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 96.99%

Lean Republican

Notes: Holy Baconmandering Batman! This the first of three districts that broke the relatively Democratic western Milwaukee County suburbs into three and attached them to very Republican suburbs in Waukesha. Problem for Republicans is that 2016 elections might have shown that this could be a dangerous mix as the Democrats surged in the some of the western Milwaukee County and the Republican margins plummeted in Waukesha County. It's really tough to predict this seat because I don't know what Wisconsin is going to show up in November. This is a district in Leah Vukmir's Senate district, so you could see more Republican loyalty and turnout here than you'd expect. However, Supreme Court results and the fact the Democrat raised more money in the last reporting period also gives me pause. I feel like Lean Republican is fair.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 14

Counties: Milwaukee & Waukesha
Largest City: Wauwatosa - North
Democrat: Robyn Vining
Republican: Matt Adamczyk

Clinton: 49.36%
Trump: 45.05%

Swing: 18.48% Democratic

Democratic Average: 39.16%
Republican Average: 56.85%

Dallet: 51.00%
Screnock: 49.00%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 42.70%
2016 Assembly Republican: 57.19%

Toss Up

Notes: Of the three baconmandered seats, this was the one where Hillary Clinton did the best, actually winning it by over 4 points and almost getting a majority of the vote. Dale Kooyenga currently represents this district and is running to replace Leah Vukmir in the State Senate, so this is an open seat. The Democrat has also raised more money in the last reporting cycle and has more in the bank than the Republican.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 15

Counties: Milwaukee & Waukesha
Largest City: West Allis - Southwest
Democrat: Lillian Cheesman
Republican: Joe Sanfelippo (Incumbent)

Clinton: 43.63%
Trump: 50.53%

Swing: 2.27% Democratic

Democratic Average: 40.19%
Republican Average: 55.38%

Dallet: 45.03%
Screnock: 54.97%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 97.54%

Safe Republican

Notes: Funny enough, of the three baconmandered districts, this one traditionally had the smaller margins. However, it only swung to the by a little over 2 points in 2016 and Dallet did not perform well here unlike the other two. West Allis as a suburb is pretty blue collar working class community, which has trended a bit away from the Democrats, plus this district does not have it's most Democratic areas, which are in Assembly District 7.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 16

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee - Northeast Central
Democrat: Kalan Haywood (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 88.16%
Trump: 8.20%

Swing: 1.25% Republican

Democratic Average:
Republican Average:

Dallet: 86.73%
Screnock: 9.06%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.43%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: Back into the City of Milwaukee, specifically the African American Northside with part of Downtown. One of the most Democratic districts in the state.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 17

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee - North Cenral
Democrat: David Crowley (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 85.53%
Trump: 11.96%

Swing: 1.06% Democratic

Democratic Average: 83.29%
Republican Average: 13.82%

Dallet: 77.52%
Screnock: 22.48%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 99.07%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: Another very African American district in Milwaukee's Northside. Not much else to say.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 18

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee - Northwest Central
Democrat: Evan Goyke (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 87.03%
Trump: 9.71%

Swing: 1.71% Republican

Democratic Average:
Republican Average:

Dallet: 85.22%
Screnock: 11.01%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 85.09%
2016 Assembly Republican: 14.91%

Safe Democrat

Notes: The final African American district and actually the finally non-white majority district in the state. Interesting enough it is represented by a white Democrat.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 19

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee - East
Democrat: Jonathan Brostoff (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 72.67%
Trump: 20.16%

Swing: 10.68% Democratic

Democratic Average: 66.13%
Republican Average: 27.07%

Dallet: 84.74%
Screnock: 15.26%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 97.54%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This is the City of Milwaukee lakeshore district. It's a mix of pretty well off white liberals in the North along with the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee campus, part of Downtown Milwaukee in the center, and bit more industrial blue collar areas in the south. As you can see this area did not respond well to Trump and it appears with the Supreme Court race continued to move left. Will be interesting to see if these margins hold across the ballot for all the other races.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 20

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee - South
Democrat: Christine Sinicki (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 55.33%
Trump: 39.27%

Swing: 1.92 Republican

Democratic Average: 54.86%
Republican Average: 39.82%

Dallet: 63.30%
Screnock: 36.70%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 97.02%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: Incorporating most of far Southern Milwaukee, including the airport, plus the blue collar suburbs of Cudahy and St. Francis, I actually thought this district would have been a bit more receptive to Trump. Also interesting to see the Trump backlash here as Dallet outran even Obama 2012 here.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 21

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Oak Creek
Democrat: Gabriel Gomez
Republican: Jessie Rodriguez (Incumbent)

Clinton: 44.81%
Trump: 50.06%

Swing: 2.11% Republican

Democratic Average: 43.02%
Republican Average: 52.59%

Dallet: 49.56%
Screnock: 50.44%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 40.53%
2016 Assembly Republican: 59.30%

Likely Republican

Notes: Never been a huge fan of the composition of this district or with it being connected with the two prior. Oak Creek is more similar to Franklin and should be with them, while South Milwaukee is more similar to Cudahy and St. Francis. The Supreme Court race was close here, but it's hard to see anything other than a Republican win here.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 22

Counties: Milwaukee, Washington & Waukesha
Largest City: Menomonee Falls - Southwest
Democrat: Aaron Matteson
Republican: Janel Brandtjen (Incumbent)

Clinton: 35.41%
Trump: 60.15%

Swing: 5.25% Democraic

Democratic Average: 30.35%
Republican Average: 66.30%

Dallet: 35.01%
Screnock: 64.99%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 97.82%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district is half suburban and half exurban, but 100% Republican. There was a decent swing towards Clinton in the Presidential election, but most of it went away in the Supreme Court race. This won't be competative.