Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

It' means that a Democrat actually represents a sliver of Waukesha County. Not sure the last time that happened in the state legislature.

[Gass3268]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

It' means that a Democrat actually represents a sliver of Waukesha County. Not sure the last time that happened in the state legislature.

The suburban erosion is going to turn WI really ugly for Republicans. Western WI doesn't show any notable signs of movement, while Dane and MKE keep growing. If Republicans lose a significant share of their WOW support, which is what keeps them afloat and competitive, I don't see them doing well in the future.

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

[Gass3268]

^^^ Curious what happened in Langlade...

Haha yeah, Langade makes no sense.

[Gass3268]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

#realignment

You have to wonder if a Madison/Milwaukee/WOW coalition represents the distant future of the Wisconsin Democrats.

It really is. We nationally we are really heading towards urban/suburban vs rural split or a college educated vs non-college educated split, then Wisconsin will go from being generally split East to West to being split North to South.

[Gass3268]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Looks like some of that Trump WOW erosion was permanent. Baldwin's numbers in WOW were simply stunning as well. RIP hofoid.

Washington looks like it hold on for a while but Ozaukee will vote democrat statewide in a non landslide election by 2036 atleast.

Evers won Ozaukee last year in a non-partisan race.

[Gass3268]

I'm looking right now at the municipal data in Waukesha County, here are the %'s in some of the biggest cities/villages in the county in the Senate Race:

Brookfield (Vukmir's hometown): 59.60%-40.31% (19.30%)
Menomonee Falls: 57.45%-42.41% (15.04%)
Muskego: 65.90%-33.99% (31.91%)
New Berlin: 59.16%-40.70% (18.46%)
Waukesha: 52.38%-47.51% (4.81%)

That City of Waukesha number is nuts.

[Gass3268]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Looks like some of that Trump WOW erosion was permanent. Baldwin's numbers in WOW were simply stunning as well. RIP hofoid.

Washington looks like it hold on for a while but Ozaukee will vote democrat statewide in a non landslide election by 2036 atleast.

Evers won Ozaukee last year in a non-partisan race.

Mind you that was a landslide election, but the point is still somewhat true. Traditional D landslides always swept everything but WOW+a few SW counties, so Ozaukee breaking that historical alignment was noticeable. I'm interested in seeing how firmly Ozaukee voted for Grothman, considering that race was somewhat competitive.

Grothman won Ozaukee County 60.28%-39.64%.

[Gass3268]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

Want to know the best part about this? This is the seat that Walker used to represent in the State Assembly.

[Gass3268]

^^^ Curious what happened in Langlade...

Haha yeah, Langade makes no sense.

I looked directly at Langade, I think it swung to Walker by about 1 point.

[Gass3268]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

It' means that a Democrat actually represents a sliver of Waukesha County. Not sure the last time that happened in the state legislature.

The suburban erosion is going to turn WI really ugly for Republicans. Western WI doesn't show any notable signs of movement, while Dane and MKE keep growing. If Republicans lose a significant share of their WOW support, which is what keeps them afloat and competitive, I don't see them doing well in the future.

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Here we go, looks like there was some correlation between population growth and the swing in the Governor's race:

[Gass3268]

County   Residual
ADAMS   -5.37%
ASHLAND   -2.52%
BARRON   0.21%
BAYFIELD   -5.18%
BROWN   1.96%
BUFFALO   -0.44%
BURNETT   -7.47%
CALUMET   5.04%
CHIPPEWA   -3.89%
CLARK   -0.28%
COLUMBIA   1.18%
CRAWFORD   -2.84%
DANE   -0.62%
DODGE   2.67%
DOOR   5.60%
DOUGLAS   -2.59%
DUNN   0.63%
EAU CLAIRE   3.26%
FLORENCE   -4.15%
FOND DU LAC   0.88%
FOREST   -3.94%
GRANT   -1.70%
GREEN   5.17%
GREEN LAKE   2.14%
IOWA   5.61%
IRON   8.47%
JACKSON   -4.99%
JEFFERSON   3.74%
JUNEAU   -7.64%
KENOSHA   3.14%
KEWAUNEE   0.48%
LA CROSSE   3.70%
LAFAYETTE   -0.79%
LANGLADE   1.03%
LINCOLN   -3.02%
MANITOWOC   3.66%
MARATHON   -0.20%
MARINETTE   -2.98%
MARQUETTE   -2.86%
MENOMINEE   -8.47%
MILWAUKEE   5.97%
MONROE   -5.15%
OCONTO   -4.85%
ONEIDA   -1.83%
OUTAGAMIE   2.29%
OZAUKEE   9.83%
PEPIN   2.31%
PIERCE   0.43%
POLK   -1.95%
PORTAGE   1.32%
PRICE   -2.39%
RACINE   1.94%
RICHLAND   7.45%
ROCK   2.78%
RUSK   -3.77%
SAUK   0.43%
SAWYER   -7.86%
SHAWANO   0.05%
SHEBOYGAN   7.74%
ST. CROIX   5.08%
TAYLOR   -1.67%
TREMPEALEAU   -8.16%
VERNON   -4.90%
VILAS   -5.50%
WALWORTH   5.25%
WASHBURN   -3.43%
WASHINGTON   2.59%
WAUKESHA   7.54%
WAUPACA   1.90%
WAUSHARA   -4.00%
WINNEBAGO   3.58%
WOOD   0.35%

[Gass3268]

Some of the discussions about what restrictions they might place on the Governor

Most of these are about restricting some of the rule making ability of the execurtive branch and preventing Evers from doing anything to alter the voter ID law or Act 10 plus proecting Wisconsin Economic Development Corp, as Evers wanted to bring back the state's Commerce Department. The legislature is clearly not showing good faith here, but I don't think we are looking at North Carolina style awfulness. Still have to wait and see for the lame duck to be sure.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/banditelli/status/1060375618041212928

[Gass3268]

^^^ Curious what happened in Langlade...

Haha yeah, Langade makes no sense.

I looked directly at Langade, I think it swung to Walker by about 1 point.

Atlas shows Walker won Langlade by 30.1 in 2014; NYT is showing Walker won it by 18.5 in 2018.

I got Walker 61.66% | Evers 30.50% for a 31.17% margin and a 1.03% Swing to Walker.

You can see the results here

[Gass3268]

Do you see Highway-29 down there? It connects Green Bay to Wausau to Chippewa Falls to then I-94 near Menomonee. By many it is the defining line between Central and Northern (Northwoods) Wisconsin.



Compare that to the swing map that AG created:



You can see that road line almost clear as day on the map.

[Gass3268]

Here is the differences in how much better Baldwin did than Evers in each county:

FOREST   18.75%
CLARK   18.54%
TAYLOR   17.69%
BUFFALO   17.54%
CRAWFORD   16.98%
TREMPEALEAU   16.59%
LANGLADE   16.41%
MANITOWOC   15.70%
PRICE   15.44%
LINCOLN   15.40%
MARATHON   14.86%
JACKSON   14.67%
RUSK   14.44%
MARINETTE   14.33%
KEWAUNEE   14.20%
DOOR   13.76%
CALUMET   13.62%
VERNON   13.52%
CHIPPEWA   13.51%
LAFAYETTE   13.48%
GREEN LAKE   13.38%
ONEIDA   13.35%
WOOD   13.06%
SHAWANO   12.93%
OCONTO   12.79%
MONROE   12.36%
WAUSHARA   12.18%
IRON   12.15%
DODGE   11.75%
SHEBOYGAN   11.64%
VILAS   11.52%
WASHINGTON   11.51%
PEPIN   11.49%
BURNETT   11.44%
BROWN   11.33%
WALWORTH   11.27%
OUTAGAMIE   11.18%
FOND DU LAC   11.04%
OZAUKEE   11.01%
WAUPACA   10.91%
ADAMS   10.81%
MARQUETTE   10.77%
LA CROSSE   10.57%
PORTAGE   10.44%
SAWYER   10.31%
WINNEBAGO   10.13%
WAUKESHA   10.03%
EAU CLAIRE   9.80%
RICHLAND   9.75%
JUNEAU   9.73%
RACINE   9.73%
JEFFERSON   9.69%
GRANT   9.53%
IOWA   9.38%
DUNN   9.28%
KENOSHA   9.12%
BARRON   9.09%
GREEN   8.94%
POLK   8.86%
PIERCE   8.68%
ASHLAND   8.43%
WASHBURN   8.02%
MILWAUKEE   7.90%
ST. CROIX   7.73%
SAUK   7.24%
BAYFIELD   7.07%
ROCK   6.74%
FLORENCE   6.72%
COLUMBIA   6.69%
DOUGLAS   5.42%
MENOMINEE   4.66%
DANE   4.09%

[Gass3268]

Democrats are gonna make sure the Republicans can't gerrymander:

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1062070477441679363

[Gass3268]

So Wisconsin Republicans are going full North Carolina? Shocker. I'm sure Michigan and Kansas Republicans will follow suit

As of right now, nothing that has been floated has been to the horrid level of the NC GOP. Yet we need to remain vigilant.

[Gass3268]

Apparently Evers called former moderate Republican governor Tommy Thompson to counsel him. I say, good move! https://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2018/11/14/governor-elect-evers-seeks-bipartisan-counsel-from.html

So, he's gonna govern like a Reaganite Republican. Yikes.

Tommy Thompson had to deal with a Dem legislature for many years... and his solution, generally, was to throw money at popular projects, scream "Go Pack Go!" a lot, and be drunk most of the time.

I don't think Evers will go down that road.

The Great State of Wiscons!

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin lawmakers are about to go full North Carolina. Walker is supposedly in agreement with limiting Evers' power. Republican corruption just never ends, does it? Dealing with them, we're going to feel like we're still being governed by the Walker administration.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/15/gop-lawmakers-considering-helping-conservative-justice-before-tony-evers-sworn/2015150002/

These aren't great, but by no means are they on the level of North Carolina.

[Gass3268]

Lame duck sessions should be abolished.

Agreed, baring like a 3/4ths vote for emergencies.

[Gass3268]

Do they think this will help them? They do realize that low turnout special/local elections have been favoring Democrats under Trump, right? And Wisconsin stands out in this regard.

I guess they think they would have a slightly better shot when it's not during the Democratic Presidential Primary. Pretty funny how they are for this even with the additional costs, but not for the special elections because they are too costly.

[Gass3268]

Off topic, but Dane is the only village in Dane County that voted for Walker.

Town of Dane voted for Walker, Village voted for Evers.

[Gass3268]

Off topic, but Dane is the only village in Dane County that voted for Walker.

Town of Dane voted for Walker, Village voted for Evers.

You have both a Town of Dane and a Village of Dane in Dane County?  And I thought Georgia place names were confusing.

It makes sense in that he Town of Dane surrounds the village of Dane. The village being the main settlement in the town, before then deciding to incorporate way back when. What’s even more confusing is that there are still random pockets of the Town of Madison. Madison and Fitchburg are finally annexing the final remains early this next decade.

[Gass3268]

It's best to think of Wisconsin "towns" as townships. Basically, the city of Verona exists inside Verona town(ship). City of Madison has annexed all the available nearby town space and can grow no more once they finish annexing what remains of the town of Madison. Fitchburg was a town, but they made the entire "town" into a city so that Madison couldn't continue annexing it. Cities and villages are set municipalities, whereas towns can be annexed. I really wish they should call them townships instead because town has its own, different connotation, but so it goes.

Cities can annex areas outside of their original township. Madison within the next 20-30 years will have annexed all of the townships of Blooming Grove, Burke, Madison and probably Middleton in coordination with the neighboring suburbs (DeForest, Fitchburg, McFarland, Middleton and Sun Prairie).