2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please (user search)
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please  (Read 145318 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #25 on: July 19, 2018, 03:17:44 PM »
No internal poll is going to push this seat off of Lean D.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #26 on: July 23, 2018, 10:14:35 AM »
It's on, like Donkey Kong:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #27 on: July 24, 2018, 09:48:29 AM »
Cook moved PA-17 to Lean D, I'm guessing Dave got a preview of the poll.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #28 on: July 24, 2018, 10:24:02 AM »
They break it down geographically by who represents what area under the old lines and Lamb is winning all three areas:

CD-12 (Rothfus):
Lamb 46%
Rothfus 45%

CD-18 (Lamb):
Lamb 54%
Rothfus 37%

CD-03 & 14:
Lamb 58%
Rothfus 25%
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Gass3268
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« Reply #29 on: July 24, 2018, 10:40:53 AM »
Quote from: Bagel23 on July 24, 2018, 10:40:03 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 24, 2018, 10:39:03 AM
Nice.

... but how did the new district vote on 2016 (Trump vs. Hillary) for comparison ?


Trump edged out the new district by like 2-3 points and actually narrowly lost the Allegheny county part of the district.

Trump +3
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Gass3268
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« Reply #30 on: July 24, 2018, 12:06:13 PM »
Latino Decisions Battleground Poll (61 most competitive seats):

Democrats 51%
Republicans 38%
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Gass3268
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« Reply #31 on: July 24, 2018, 12:35:52 PM »
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on July 24, 2018, 12:34:19 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on July 24, 2018, 12:20:45 PM
Quote from: Solid4096 on July 24, 2018, 12:07:34 PM
Junk poll. Minority numbers seem far more Republican in that poll than they could realistically be.

The Black and Native American numbers seem really off, especially the latter.

Don't Natives in the Oklahoma/Texas part of the nation skew GOP?

Yes, but they wouldn't be included in this as these are battleground districts.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #32 on: July 24, 2018, 12:43:24 PM »

"2,045 registered voters were interviewed in the 61 congressional districts deemed most competitive by Cook, CNN and Crystal Ball"
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Gass3268
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« Reply #33 on: July 25, 2018, 07:00:06 AM »
NPR-PBS-Marist (Changes since April):

Democrats 47% (+3)
Republicans 40% (+1)

Source
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Gass3268
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« Reply #34 on: July 25, 2018, 08:47:05 AM »
Quote from: KingSweden on July 25, 2018, 08:45:50 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 25, 2018, 07:00:06 AM
NPR-PBS-Marist (Changes since April):

Democrats 47% (+3)
Republicans 40% (+1)

Source

It’s been out of the field for three months?

I think polls need to poll once a month for true efficacy, personally

$$$
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Gass3268
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« Reply #35 on: July 25, 2018, 11:09:54 AM »
« Edited: July 25, 2018, 11:16:13 AM by Gass3268 »
Quinnipiac:

Democrats 51% (+1)
Republicans 39% (-2)

Source

Republicans: Republican +83
Democrats: Demoratic +90
Independents: Democratic +17

Men: Republican +2
Women: Democratic +25

College Educated Whites: Democratic +13
Non-College Educated Whites: Republican +11

18-34: Democratic +26
35-49: Democratic +2
50-64: Democratic +9
65+: Democratic +14

White Men: Republican +14
White Women: Democratic +14

Whites: Democratic +1
Blacks: Democratic +62
Hispanics: Democratic +43
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Gass3268
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« Reply #36 on: July 25, 2018, 11:33:55 AM »
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on July 25, 2018, 11:31:13 AM
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What the hell, Gen X?

Of all the demographics I've seen, age always seems to be the most jumpy/random, except young people.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #37 on: July 25, 2018, 03:42:00 PM »
Get hype!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #38 on: July 25, 2018, 04:02:33 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on July 25, 2018, 04:02:01 PM
CGB (Marist/NBC)

MI: D+9
MN: D+12
WI: D+8

July 15-19, RVs
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Gass3268
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« Reply #39 on: July 26, 2018, 06:44:15 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 26, 2018, 12:52:15 AM
So ... Senate and Governor polls for the 3 states will be released today then ?

Yeah, as a way to spread out the impact.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #40 on: July 30, 2018, 08:23:47 AM »
Likely R seems fair for CA-50.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #41 on: August 01, 2018, 12:07:31 PM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #42 on: August 02, 2018, 08:55:57 AM »
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

Lol, muh likely Republican.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #43 on: August 06, 2018, 12:01:55 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on August 06, 2018, 11:57:42 AM
DCCC poll of CA-10: All tied up

Denham (GOP): 48
Harder (Dem): 48

Harder winning independents 53-35, Latinos 70-26.

I struggle to see how this is a tie with those crosstab numbers.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #44 on: August 06, 2018, 07:19:43 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on August 06, 2018, 07:16:25 PM
Quote from: ERM64man on August 06, 2018, 07:15:01 PM
Ami Bera looks safe. This is a Grant internal.

Bera (D): 50%
Grant (R): 41%
Undecided: 9%


Good, but Bart Stupak would be leading by twenty.

Bart Stupak would not be leading CA-07 by 20.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #45 on: August 07, 2018, 10:21:41 PM »
Cook moved KS-02 from Lean R to Toss-Up.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #46 on: August 09, 2018, 08:08:54 PM »


We will have to see if the Kim camp has a poll they can counter this with.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #47 on: August 13, 2018, 09:47:07 AM »
NJ-03 poll coming tomorrow:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #48 on: August 13, 2018, 08:17:52 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 13, 2018, 11:41:06 AM
CA-45: Global Strategy Group (D), July 26-31, 500 likely voters (live caller poll)

Mimi Walters (R, inc) 45%
Katie Porter 44%

Trump's approval is horrendous here too:

39% Approve
58% Disapprove
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Gass3268
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« Reply #49 on: August 14, 2018, 10:43:55 AM »
MacArthur is going to get hammered with ads in the fall making sure everyone knows that he was the primary author of Trumpcare.
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