State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Gass3268]

98% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
Jon Plumer (R)   5,648 53%
Ann Groves Lloyd (D)   4,816 45%
Gene Rubinstein (I) 278 3%

It's a loss, but also a 6 point swing to the Democrats. Ann Groves Lloyd performed like crap in Columbia County.

[Gass3268]

[Gass3268]

Oh and in less inspiring news, Republicans held the other seat:

42nd Assembly District Filling Vacant Seat
98% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
    Jon Plumer (R)   5,648   53%
    Ann Groves Lloyd (D)   4,816   45%
    Gene Rubinstein (I)   278   3%

Matches my prediction exactly

That one tightened up a lot at the end. Last I saw Plumer was over 60% with half reporting. Decent result overall even if it could have been better.

It's a brutally drawn district that takes a large portion of generally Democratic leaning Columbia County and combines it with some die hard Republican Dutch areas in the eastern part of the district.

[Gass3268]

Is Columbia county becoming reddish? Trump won it in 2016.

Obama did really well there, Bush won it in 04, Gore in 00. On average it leans Democratic, but they can never really get a huge margin out of it. It should be noted that the Democratic city of Portage is not in this district.

[Gass3268]

[Gass3268]

Some Miles maps:

[Gass3268]

The Frostman-Jacque race is a good reminder that Dallet’s numbers don’t take into account local pols. They are a potential topline, but even many winning Dems will probably run slightly behind her.

Yup, there was no party label (which matters) in the Supreme Court case and in this case Jacque was the Assembly rep for the Assembly District that makes up the middle part of this district (i.e. where he over performed).

[Gass3268]

I'm guessing we should turn this into a general State Legislature thread now that special elections are almost over.

DLCC has announced the  17 seats state Democrats need to win in order to flip eight state legislative chambers this fall. They are:

Colorado Senate (1 seat)
Faith Winter, SD-24
 
Minnesota Senate (1 seat)
Joe Perske, SD-13
 
Florida Senate (5 seats)
Kayser Enneking, SD-08
Amanda Murphy, SD-16
Janet Cruz, SD-18
Bob Doyel, SD-22
David Perez, SD-36
 
Arizona Senate (3 seats)
Wade Carlisle, SD-06
Steve Weichert, SD-17
Christine Marsh, SD-28
 
Maine Senate (1 seat)
Erin Herbig, SD-11
 
New York Senate (1 seat)
Anna Kaplan, SD-07
 
New Hampshire Senate (3 seats)
Jenn Alford-Teaster, SD-08
Jon Morgan, SD-23
Tom Sherman, SD-24
 
Wisconsin Senate (2 seats)
Kriss Marion, SD-17
Lee Snodgrass or Dan Grady, SD-19

Source

[Gass3268]

Will Hurd can't be feeling to great about Republicans only getting 32% of the vote here.

[Gass3268]

The only thing a Democratic loss would tell me here is that the NYT's poll on TX-23 is probably accurate, considering how much the two overlap.

[Gass3268]

Damn. It wasn't even close. And that's before tonight's centrist SOTU speech. Trump landslide 2020?

This is likely. His approval is following Reagan's and will soon jump up into the high 50s.

Haha, no

[Gass3268]

Damn. It wasn't even close. And that's before tonight's centrist SOTU speech. Trump landslide 2020?

Damn. It wasn't even close. And that's before tonight's centrist SOTU speech. Trump landslide 2020?

This is likely. His approval is following Reagan's and will soon jump up into the high 50s.

How can you guys have such terrible takes? This is the kind of district where you'd expect a bad result given that it's a rapidly Republican trending part of Minnesota. Democrats don't even need to win this seat to win statewide, Ellison lost here by 5 and still won statewide.

I mean id expect a bad result in the GE. But all the statewide D's still won it in 2018 besides Ellison and this is a special election which means Ds should be more energized to vote. This doesn't signify the end of special election turnout for D's but it is in no way a good result

Incorrect. Steve Simon and Julie Blaha couldn't win this seat either. Those were both non-controversial and won by more statewide than Ellison.

Yeah, this was a stupid move by Walz. Luckily there are still more than enough senate districts in the Twin Cities metro to gain a clear majority in 2020.

[Gass3268]

Looks like HD-18 could be D vs D

[Gass3268]

Looks like HD-18 could be D vs D

Am I missing something here? Because can someone please explain to me how Democrats are combining for 74% of the vote in a seat Trump won by 15 or some-odd points?

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1099506856660213761

[Gass3268]

Looks like HD-18 could be D vs D

Am I missing something here? Because can someone please explain to me how Democrats are combining for 74% of the vote in a seat Trump won by 15 or some-odd points?

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1099506856660213761

He was off here, Fabre is a Republican. Still, crazy total for the Democrats.

[Gass3268]

Can’t wait for that PA special so we can determine if the stumble in CT represents local issues/fatigue with Dems in that state or the start of something more widespread.

Didn’t Dems underperform in CT specials before last Election Day and the Dem success on Election Day there was something of a surprise?

Yes that will be more indicative as well the State Supreme Court election in Wisconsin April 2nd.

And they did underperform in CT and ended up surprising on Election day.

It's really hard to gain any sort of partisan understanding from the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race given that it's non-partisan.

[Gass3268]

Can’t wait for that PA special so we can determine if the stumble in CT represents local issues/fatigue with Dems in that state or the start of something more widespread.

Didn’t Dems underperform in CT specials before last Election Day and the Dem success on Election Day there was something of a surprise?

Yes that will be more indicative as well the State Supreme Court election in Wisconsin April 2nd.

And they did underperform in CT and ended up surprising on Election day.

It's really hard to gain any sort of partisan understanding from the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race given that it's non-partisan.

The party affiliations of the candidates are well known though

To those in the know, but not everyone.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/KySecofState/status/1103080299498557441

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/VVertuccio/status/1103084432511111169

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1103087173908262912

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/VVertuccio/status/1103087803104194561

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1103087905042518016

[Gass3268]

Based off Lawrence county, looks like another devastating loss for Democrats.

Massive improvement from the Clinton numbers. Democrats are rebounding nationally.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1103092017620492294

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1103093254428463104