2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Gass3268]

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Now imagine what races in swing districts where the Republican incumbent doesn't have a +30 favorability rating would be like.

Also, it shows that Trump is the one dragging down the Republicans. The economy is not going to save them.

Those undecided have a 34% approval rating for Trump.

[Gass3268]

Woof, do the Democrats have a decent candidate running here?

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac (Changes are from April 25):

House:

Dems 47% (-1)
Reps 40% (+/-)

Senate

Dems 48% (+/-)
Reps 40% (-1)

Source

[Gass3268]

Ispos/Reuters has Dems with an 11-point lead.

Democrats: 43% (+4)
Republicans: 32% (-5)

Someone get Sean T on the phone!

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-06/2018_reuters_tracking_-_core_political_06_06_2018.pdf

This poll is nucking futs.

[Gass3268]

NBC/Wall Street Journal:

Democrats 50%
Republicans 40%

Source

Same poll gives Trump one of his best approval ratings at 44%. So little bit for everyone.

[Gass3268]

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1004710309662257154

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1004710996588589056

[Gass3268]

This is what I don’t get about Pelosi. She apparently gave candidates a blessing to run on not voting for her but it’s looking increasingly like that is going to be a lot of candidates. So she seems to of set herself up for a humiliating ouster of a blue wave does hit but too many candidates pledged not to vote for her over retiring with dignity

Who's said that? So far I only know of Lamb (PA-17) and Tucker (AR-02).

Also if it comes down to a Democratic House majority, I don't doubt she would have an issue stepping aside.

[Gass3268]

This is what I don’t get about Pelosi. She apparently gave candidates a blessing to run on not voting for her but it’s looking increasingly like that is going to be a lot of candidates. So she seems to of set herself up for a humiliating ouster of a blue wave does hit but too many candidates pledged not to vote for her over retiring with dignity

Who's said that? So far I only know of Lamb (PA-17) and Tucker (AR-02).

Also if it comes down to a Democratic House majority, I don't doubt she would have an issue stepping aside.

I don’t have the full list but I know Pat Davis (KS-04) and Gil Cisneros (CA-39) also said they’ll vote for someone else

Ah, I forgot about Davis and didn't know about Cisneros. Tucker and Davis probably wouldn't matter in the long run as if they are winning she'll have enough votes for the majority. Cisneros and Lamb are in more the concerning camp as they are both necessary for a majority.

[Gass3268]

He’s such a ing hack

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1004735088180031490?s=21

To be fair, “check back in a week” is not terrible advice prima facie - however, it still ignores that the “shift” came during an unusual lull in non-Internet tracker polls

The fact that their model will ensure that Trashy Rassy will always be included in the average due to their frequency, but high quality polls that occur at best only once a month will gradually be pushed out, is a big reason why RCP is the worst of the 3 aggregates.

[Gass3268]

Fox News Poll:

48% Democrats (+2)
39% Republicans (-2)

Source

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[Gass3268]

What's interesting is in a lot of these polls is that both Trump AND Democrats are improving.

[Gass3268]

What's interesting is in a lot of these polls is that both Trump AND Democrats are improving.

Not really; his approvals are still stuck in the mid-40’s. Marginally, they're better, but he’s still not in the positive range.

I'm not saying their good, because they're not. Every President with approvals close to what Trump has now have had crap midterms. However, I just find it odd Trump and Congressional Republicans are going in opposite directions. it's not just one poll showing this.

[Gass3268]

Also from NBC/Wall Street Journal:

[Gass3268]

Next Monmouth house district poll will be the OH-12 special election:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1005106649605070849

[Gass3268]

PPP (Last poll was in late March):

Democrats 46% (-4)
Republicans 40% (+1)

Source

[Gass3268]

The Generic ballot is getting much wider again and polls are now regularly have Dems up 9-10%.

it is gonna crash

Why would that be?

told you lol

Huh?

[Gass3268]

The Generic ballot is getting much wider again and polls are now regularly have Dems up 9-10%.

it is gonna crash

Why would that be?

told you lol

The average has gone from D+8.2 to D+8.3 since your crash prediction.  How exactly does this constitute a crash?

ppp poll! It is baised towards democrats and crashed!

- PPP has leaned right for most of this cycle, as have all robopolls
- It's a comparison to the end of March and a D+6 is a reasonably expected number if the GCB is D+8

[Gass3268]

I'm sensing some /s

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/1006866676829257728

I don't think he wins, but if this is what NJ-03 looks like, the rest of the state is going to be a bloodbath.

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult/Politico GCB Poll

Democratic - 43% (+5)
Republican - 38%

1994 RV, +/- 2%, conducted June 7-10

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000163-f6ef-d9aa-af77-feff2ba10000

[Gass3268]

Monmouth:

Democrats 48 (-1)
Republicans 41

Essentially no change from April, even as Trump has his best numbers in over a year.

[Gass3268]

Other points from the Monmouth Poll:
- No difference in voting preference between All Adults and Registered Voters
- Democrats have a 13 point lead in swing counties (won by either Trump or Hillary by less than 10 points)
- Democrats are winning over more Republicans (5%) and Conservatives (23%) than Republicans are Democrats (1%) and Liberals (8%)
- Republicans are winning men by 1 point, Democrats are winning women by 13 points
- Tax plan is unpopular, 34-41, with a plurality in the strongly dissapprove camp

[Gass3268]

Poll was released 28 minutes ago, let's see how long it takes RCP to put it in their average. It only took less than 45 minutes for them to put in Trump's good approval rating from Monmouth last week.

[Gass3268]

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Is this just men in general or white men. Because if the GOP is only leading by one, then how is are Democrats only up by 7?

Men in general.