VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Gass3268]

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There were only 41,214 voters for Governor in 2013. So Alexandria is already at 78.9% of 2013.

[Gass3268]

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Well that's not good.

Not sure if this includes the early vote, which was huge this year in PW. Also turnout was only 40.54% in 2013, so they actually aren't that far away from that number.

[Gass3268]

Charlottesville 31.3% at 1pm. Was 40.17% in 2013, so they are already at 77.9% of total 2013 vote.

[Gass3268]

Alright, I'm going to provide some actual, local insight into the situation especially re PW County (my county). We're at work! I plan to vote after I get off work today, go home, and drive down to the voting location. PW is largely commuter and works in Ffx, Arlington, Alexandria, or D.C. Expect turnout to pick up after 4 and 5 for obvious reasons.

Also just saw that the reported 18.8% does not include 13,191 that voted early.

[Gass3268]

i'm messing around but don't treat the results that are in so far as a northam win just yet. wait until the results start rolling in later tonight.

Agreed, we haven't seen enough information from GOP areas yet. All we know is NoVa turnout looks high.

[Gass3268]

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Nice and low, at least so far. Hopefully it stays that way.

With 5 hours left to vote, Fairfax was already at 81.9% of the 2013 vote.

[Gass3268]

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This is Arlington County, means they tied 2013 at 3pm.

[Gass3268]

For those freaking out about Tribbett's doom and gloom:

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Which would be between 2 and 6 points, which is exactly what the polls said.

[Gass3268]

My friend who runs one of the most high-tech pre-election trackers called Nova Track says that Gillepsie is on to a big win. Lots more Democrats and Independents than usual voting Gillepsie.

How is it even possible to obtain that kind of information?

I'm sorry but I find this highly unlikely.

You find it unlikely because it is. Don't trust everything you read on the internet. Especially some random Twitter dude who doesn't post any concrete stats.

TBF, this random guy is going to be on DC local election coverage on I think the ABC affiliate.

[Gass3268]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

As Nate Cohen always like to remind us, whites with no degree are always under sampled in both regular polls and exits.

[Gass3268]

Where is Greedo The Hunter?

[Gass3268]

Northam could still win Chesterfield County, the absentee vote has yet to be entered.

[Gass3268]

Haha, good job Scott Walker! Going 0-2 as the head of the RGA!

[Gass3268]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Who cares once the new VA state legislature starts passing legislation and Northam signs it all?

R's still control the Senate (21-19) so that won't happen for the next two years.

If the Democrats get the HoD, they are going to do everything to get one in the Senate to flip.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/928111976676511745/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2017-election-live-coverage-results%2F

^^^ This is what should REALLY scare the GOP ^^^

Remember when Gen Zers were supposed to be the future for Republicans?

[Gass3268]

It's a tie!

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[Gass3268]

I want to thank Latino Victory for helping get Democrats out to the polls. They helped show us what Virginia would have looked like with Enron Ed as governor.

[Gass3268]

Kinda sad that Northam lost his home county.

[Gass3268]

Depending on where you're getting your results, it looks like Northam might have won James City County!

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

I apologize for my predictions,I was really wrong I thought for sure that the off year would help Gillespie but it didn’t so I apologize now on to 2018.

Props for coming back!

[Gass3268]

Great night. Over an hour's worth of traffic to get back home and conditions were miserable but cast my vote for Northam around 5:30ish. Glad he won.

Also this, Trump couldn't help himself:

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump  12 hours ago
Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don’t forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!

If he did embrace him, it would have been an even bigger wave election. He doesn't see the writing on the wall.

Also, if the 50-50 HoD tie holds, expect some Rs to switch to either Indies or Dems before or during the next full session.

Any chance Democrats could make a deal to flip a Republican Senator?

[Gass3268]

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HD-40 might have flipped back

[Gass3268]

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HD-40 might have flipped back

Is that the net gain for Hugo? Tanner was up 68 before this.

Not sure, that's all they said

[Gass3268]

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HD-40 might have flipped back

HD-40 was classified as a D pickup by VPAP already (50.11-49.89), so it's a bigger margin than before. However, if this continues to be the case, we'll get 17-18 seats (and the house), as there are a number of HDs that were really close.

Hugo is the Republican incumbent.