Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Gass3268]

Oh man, Moore is now ahead in Montgomery County.

[Gass3268]

Any over/under predictions on the Republican primary turnout?  On the one hand, Republican intensity is said to be way down, on the other hand there are 12 Republicans running for the nomination, even if a few of them are pretty fringy.  (It presumably still all adds up.)

Debbie Lisko is probably the frontrunner after Montenegro’s sexting scandal.

Maybe... depends on how many early votes he rolled up.

I thought I read somewhere that estimates about 80% of the total vote could be the early vote.

[Gass3268]

Lesko will win, but that's a horrible number for Republicans.

[Gass3268]

OH-12 would terrify me if I was a Republican

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1013211728287432709?s=21

[Gass3268]

Good 6 point swing vs the partisan lean, I'll take it!

[Gass3268]

Good 6 point swing vs the partisan lean, I'll take it!

You are the only person I know who takes swings from partisan leans.  The rational way to do it is to base it on the congressional vote in the last election which was R 61.69. D 38.31.  In this election the total vote was R 59.82 D 39.13. Others 1.05.  The swing is only .82.  No where near 6.

Let’s say we use the two major candidates.  We have R 54.74. D 31.96.  The R lost6.95.  The Dem lost 6.35.  The R lost .6 more than the D.   But this is comparing apples and oranges.

I do not know where you get your partisan lean.  1 do not know how you can base the actual swing in a congressional race with the presedential vote  the later may play a part in determine how partisan a district might be, but it is not part in determine the swing in a congressional vote.  

I AM TELLING YOU THERE WAS NO 6% SWING IN THE CONGRESSIONAL VOTE IN THIS DISTRICT BETWWEEN 2016 and 2018.

I didn't make that chart, it's what Harry Enten at CNN and formally 538 uses. Also Data Journalist for the Economist G. Elliott Morris agrees with Enten (his +5 came before all the votes were counted).

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1013237246990934016

[Gass3268]

This kind of thing just costs Enten and so on credibility. And it opens him up to ugly attacks like this:



It's war out there guys.

How? This is a legitimate way of looking at this. Multiple data journalists use this method.

[Gass3268]

Good 6 point swing vs the partisan lean, I'll take it!

You are the only person I know who takes swings from partisan leans.  The rational way to do it is to base it on the congressional vote in the last election which was R 61.69. D 38.31.  In this election the total vote was R 59.82 D 39.13. Others 1.05.  The swing is only .82.  No where near 6.

Let’s say we use the two major candidates.  We have R 54.74. D 31.96.  The R lost6.95.  The Dem lost 6.35.  The R lost .6 more than the D.   But this is comparing apples and oranges.

I do not know where you get your partisan lean.  1 do not know how you can base the actual swing in a congressional race with the presedential vote  the later may play a part in determine how partisan a district might be, but it is not part in determine the swing in a congressional vote.  

I AM TELLING YOU THERE WAS NO 6% SWING IN THE CONGRESSIONAL VOTE IN THIS DISTRICT BETWWEEN 2016 and 2018.

I didn't make that chart, it's what Harry Enten at CNN and formally 538 uses. Also Data Journalist for the Economist G. Elliott Morris agrees with Enten (his +5 came before all the votes were counted).

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1013237246990934016

It is still worthless.   It obvious that was not including the votes of the other Republicans.

The Republicans got 59.8% and the Democrats got 39.1% of the vote, which is a 20 point spread. This is 6 points better than the partisan lean of the district. Therefore it's a 6 point Dem swing.

[Gass3268]

This kind of thing just costs Enten and so on credibility. And it opens him up to ugly attacks like this:



It's war out there guys.

How? This is a legitimate way of looking at this. Multiple data journalists use this method.

Every time someone challenges you, you just try out another appeal to authority. You realize that's a logical fallacy, right? A 60-40 Trump district that went 55-45 GOP for Congress in 2016, and re-elects its Republican Congressman 55-45 this fall would be a "10 point D swing" by your data journalist model but that doesn't get the Democrats a pickup of the seat, which is all that matters.

Democrats need to make gains versus the previous Congressional vote if they are to pick up seats this fall. Arkansas Yankee at least looked at the numbers himself. Liberals need to stop idolizing these "data journalists", it's making us lazy.

[Gass3268]

I mean, it would be fair to take from this result some pessimism on Beto O'Rourke's chances, given that he'd need some kind of major shift in Texas voting patterns that might be unexpected Hispanic turnout which didn't show up here.

Well, given that O'Rourke never had a shot at winning in the first place, this really isn't news.

Lmao he's down 5 in the latest poll. If being down 5 means you have no shot then we might as well call WV, MT, and MO Safe D at this point.

Polling isn't everything, as we learned in 2016.

Polling was fine in 2016.

[Gass3268]

O’Connor up 2-1 in early voting https://mobile.twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1017200227298791425

That is not a correct conclusion from the data.  Nobody knows who those votes were cast for until they are counted.

Also this is just in Franklin County.

[Gass3268]

Saw some tweets online here that the early vote behavior for the special has been different that past cycles as the Democratic lead has grown everyday of the early vote period, which is now at the half way point. Will it last? Who knows, but something different is happening right now.