GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Gass3268]

Good thing for Ossoff is that most of the GOP strongholds are still bottleneck. 400 is a nightmare between 4 to 7.

Old joke: the evening rush hour in ATL starts at 3:30.  Except on Friday, when it starts on Thursday.

haha.

Does Atlanta literally have the worst traffic in the first world?

Texas A&M did a study and DC was #1, recently passing LA.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

@Nate_Cohn
There are 6 precincts where the vote is done. If the drop held elsewhere, it would be enough for Ossoff. We'll see if it's representative.

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[Gass3268]

Can't believe only 4% have reported.

That's only precicents where 100% of the vote has been counted. Over a third of the total vote is already in.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Nate Cohen is still projecting Ossoff at 48%

[Gass3268]

Its funny thinking of all the outside money and celebrity money that is getting flushed down the toilet.

Republicans spent almost 2x more than Republicans here.

[Gass3268]

Its funny thinking of all the outside money and celebrity money that is getting flushed down the toilet.

Republicans spent almost 2x more than Republicans here.

Dems got 8 mil (95% out of district) and every possible liberla hollywood actor/actress to descend on the district and are barely improving from the general election.

Sure, but the Republicans still had more outside spending.

[Gass3268]

Wasserman now agrees with Cohn

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[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

What are fulton county results so far ... what % does ossoff have in fulton?

55.3%

What would you guess is Ossoff's election day % in Fulton Co so far?

Nate Cohn says it's currently at 45% and it needs to get to 49% to stay about 50%.

[Gass3268]

I'm going to bed

[Gass3268]

2). gerrymandering takes place AFTER 2020... not before 2018 ()

Technically a state can redraw its districts any time it wishes. He is suggesting that Republicans would redraw it sometime after this special election to keep Democrats out. I'd actually be more surprised if Republicans didn't try and redraw this district before 2020.

Depends on the state, Wisconsin for example only allows for redistricting once a decade right after the census, per the state constitution.

[Gass3268]

Wow. As of this moment, Ossoff and the top 5 Republicans combined have exactly the same number of votes at 88,562 each.

Yes, Republicans will end up with more votes.



#Winning.

What a change from just a few months ago's House race when this went R+23.

Sad!

[Gass3268]

Where are Republicans getting this meme that Democrats spent more than Republicans in this race? Republicans spent almost twice as much as Democrats did.

[Gass3268]

Klartext, it's cool you're feeling good this morning about Ossoff going to a runoff. As a gloom and doom Dem myself, I'm feeling pretty pumped about what happened and bullish on the runoff, and I'll tell you why.

Last November, the Republicans ran a Presidential candidate who was comically bad for this district and had no campaign apparatus, and he fell up to fifteen points behind recent Republican candidates for President and House. Remember, Romney won this district by over 20 points.

Last night, Republicans had the chance to vote for any of eleven candidates representing every possible position on the Republican spectrum. These were well known candidates with reputations, local connections, and machines they could turn on to churn out votes. And they, too, fell twenty points behind the margin past Republicans got, barely outpacing a single Generic Democrat with no district ties and no machine other than the Democratic tsunami which spontaneously arose behind his candidacy.

Historically it can take 10-20 years for flukish Presidential results to translate downballot. Look at all the D congressmen in the House who held on for 30 years after Reagan swept their districts in 1980.

You can celebrate, and maybe you will be proven right, but the well of liberal tears for you to quaff is dry this morning. We're feeling pretty damn good.

I'm sorry but this level of reality denying and fantasy land is only amusing me, nothing more.

The truth is that we have a 50/50 district going 51/49 GOP in a special election which always is favorable to the Opposition. I explained why a week ago in the Kansas thread.

So, there's nothing for Dems to celebrate and nothing for the GOP to be scared of. If the Dems can't flip 50/50 districts, they will not even come close of taking the House.

And no, I'm feeling pretty damn miserable this morning (or meanwhile afternoon in Germany) but has nothing to do with politics, it's because of Soccer...

Not a 50/50 district, R+9 district:

[Gass3268]

Repasting my runoff poll comment for discussion:

Osoff wins 51-49%. He needs just 3% from his 48.1% (with all precincts reporting) to win. The GOP will coalesce around Handel but it's clear at this point that the district has swung sharply away from the GOP since 2012 and disgusted Atlanta suburban voters are breaking Democratic heavily.

Given that suburban educated Republicans are the weakest part of Trump's coalition and given most of them are still infuriated at the President, I would say that Ossoff keeps his 48% and picks up a handful of Atlanta suburban voters that allow him to eke out the win.

Eventually, this district will become strongly Democratic at some point between the Trump - Pence era. Republicans are on borrowed time with this educated Atlanta suburbs with a strong grouping of minority voters.

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

EDIT: Expect the winning Democratic President of 2024 to take 55-58% of the vote in this district, if the lines remain the same.

My guess is this district gets chopped into pieces before Georgia Republicans allow for that to happen. Wouldn't be to impossible to see 4 congressional districts (6, 7, 9, & 11) start in the northern Atlanta Metro area before baconmandering up into the Northeast corner of the state.

[Gass3268]

As much as I would like to see Ossoff win over Handel, she will smash him with a margin of victory in the lower double digits.

One thing I have to give to people on the right is that, when the outcome of a primary or GE doesn't go perfectly for them, they usually suck it up and live to fight another day.  They don't whine, threaten to stay home, and/or wet their beds.  Just look at Breitbart comments if you don't believe me; hardly anyone is complaining about the fact that Handel won, even though she was the "establishment" candidate in the field.  If you want to give up without even putting up a fight, that's your prerogative, but it only makes the Republicans' goal of cementing their rule that much easier.  Quitters never win.

I've watched hardcore Gingrich/Santorum voters jump to Romney in a heartbeat, usually starting with a caveat like "Mitt's a good guy" and ending with "but Reagan said never attack another Republican."

Uniting behind the nominee is a natural Republican tradition. I was attacked quite angrily on social media by some of these Republican grannies for voting for Gary Johnson in 2012, for example. Even hardcore Trump voters were against him mounting an independent campaign and were prepared to hold their nose again for Jeb if they had too. It really is quite fascinating how strong Reagan's legacy is among Republicans. It is a precedent-setter for future generations, I suspect.

Repasting my runoff poll comment for discussion:

Osoff wins 51-49%. He needs just 3% from his 48.1% (with all precincts reporting) to win. The GOP will coalesce around Handel but it's clear at this point that the district has swung sharply away from the GOP since 2012 and disgusted Atlanta suburban voters are breaking Democratic heavily.

Given that suburban educated Republicans are the weakest part of Trump's coalition and given most of them are still infuriated at the President, I would say that Ossoff keeps his 48% and picks up a handful of Atlanta suburban voters that allow him to eke out the win.

Eventually, this district will become strongly Democratic at some point between the Trump - Pence era. Republicans are on borrowed time with this educated Atlanta suburbs with a strong grouping of minority voters.

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

EDIT: Expect the winning Democratic President of 2024 to take 55-58% of the vote in this district, if the lines remain the same.

My guess is this district gets chopped into pieces before Georgia Republicans allow for that to happen. Wouldn't be to impossible to see 4 congressional districts (6, 7, 9, & 11) start in the northern Atlanta Metro area before baconmandering up into the Northeast corner of the state.

I'm certainly mistaken, but I for some reason remember that being exactly the case when Gingrich first ran. I might be confusing the maps though.

Yup, the 6th was south of Atlanta then, making up a lot of what is now the Southern part of the metro (I don't think it was as much then). They then split his district in three, pulling the more Republican suburban areas into rural Dem areas, and built a new 6th out of the very Republican areas of the North Metro as a vote sink. He then moved to the new district a barely won a primary in the new district (like only a percentage point or 2). Crazy to think how different the 90's to today may have been if he would have lost that primary.

The Old 6th:

[Gass3268]

Ossoff raised $500K today

[Gass3268]

More "voter suppression" BS or whatever...

Zero evidence that these supposed "voter suppression" laws actually have any impact on voting behavior.

Sure

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

More bad news for Ossoff

http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/04/24/karen-handel-raises-nearly-1-million-a-week-into-georgia-6th-runoff/

Lol, Ossoff raised half that amount in less than 24 hours last week.

[Gass3268]

Apparently, Handel's going to free the black slaves from the Democrats

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politics/kfile-karen-handel-husband-tweet/index.html

The husband of Republican congressional candidate Karen Handel shared an image on his Twitter timeline Tuesday that urged voters to support his wife in order to "free the black slaves from the Democratic plantation."

....

Dear lord. This is... something else.

Dinesh D'Souza has been making that analogy for years now, and it played a prominent role in Hillary's America.  It's nothing new at all.

Which is one reason D'Souza is universally viewed as ignorant joke. It's nothing new at all.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Ossoff campaign is registering 100 new voters a day.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/860557563427000321

https://www.thenation.com/article/georgia-cant-block-new-voters-from-registering-in-the-ossoff-handel-runoff/

That's in all of Georgia, not just the 6th, but still its amazing.