VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Gass3268]

How is it possible that someone who literally described themselves as a "fiscal conservative" is in position to win a Democratic primary?

It's Virginia.

[Gass3268]

Is there any chance at all of a Stewart or Wagner upset?

My GOP/political friends in VA (or DC) have been telling me for days that they think it's not impossible for Stewart to pull an upset or come very close to Gillespie. They posit that GOP turnout might be depressed in NoVa due to dissatisfaction with Trump but Trump supporters will come out strong for Stewart.

Also if you remember from the polls there was still a lot of undecided voters on the GOP side. Past polling shows that those folks usually come for the Western part of the state, which I imagine should help Stewart.

[Gass3268]

Dave Wasserman calls it for Northam

[Gass3268]

Go here if you want to see maps by precinct

[Gass3268]

I do expect Gillespie and Vogel to get a boost once more precincts from NoVA come in.

Gillespie is not sweeping NoVA, Stewart is winning many precicents in Fairfax and he could win Loudon County.

[Gass3268]

Prince William just dropped almost everything.

Tied on D side, Heavy Stewart on the Rs.

This means Stewart should win some more precicents in Fairfax County.  

[Gass3268]

Another victory for La Resistance

This doesn't make any sense.

Yeah, both Democrats ran as anti-Trump progressives.

Arguably, Northam was more anti-Trump.

[Gass3268]

There is really no rhyme or rhythm to who's winning what precicents in Fairfax County on the Republican side, other than the Great Falls area.  

[Gass3268]

Looks like Gillespie's going to win, but it's gonna be really close.

[Gass3268]

Wagner is taking away a lot of needed support for Gillespie in the Hampton Roads area.

[Gass3268]

How did an anti-LGBT Pub get elected in such a Democrat-friendly district in the first place, anyway?  Or is this because of a redistricting case I hadn't heard about?

He's been in the House of Delegates since 1992.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

[Gass3268]

Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.

MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.

You don't understand how hated Trump is here and unfortunately for Ed, he is tied to him.

Ed also had to release this statement recently: https://edforvirginia.com/2017/06/12/no-ed-gillespie-doesnt-support-removing-confederate-monuments/

[Gass3268]

To beat a dead horse here, how well could Gillespie do in Northern Virginia?

Depends how well Northam ties him to Trump.

[Gass3268]

Shameless politics 101:

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Virginia Republicans are so cute. That's actually a step down from the 15 debates Cooch proposed in 2013.

I remember reading somewhere that Gillespie mainly wanted to debate Northam in SW VA coal country so he could hit him over the "war on coal". When will the VA GOP learn that that's not how you win statewide in VA these days. Trump probably maxed out the GOP vote share in SW VA already, and still lost statewide by 5% because of his toxicity in NOVA.

Trump did comically worse in NOVA even for a republican. Gillespie will do far better there. Question is if he can match what he did there in 2014, which would be enough to win if he matches Trump in SW VA and matches Romney elsewhere.

There is no way that he'll be able to match his 2014 results. McAuliffe is too popular and Trump will be too much of a drag on him there. The race might end up looking close, but structurally it is almost impossible for a Democrat to lose now.

[Gass3268]

These are starting to pop up around Virginia:

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Gillespie decided to attack the Washington Post in an official statement for some reason today:



I don't know if attacking the newspaper with the largest circulation in Virginia, with big influence in NOVA is the best way to go.

[Gass3268]

Gillespie came out in favor of Tom Cotton's plan to restrict LEGAL immigration as part of a DACA solution.



Does he realize Virginia isn't Arkansas?

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Northam has twice as much cash as Gillespie, after recovering from primary

Northam previously was down to Gillespie 2 to 1.

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[Gass3268]

A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.

You can keep talking all you want about you're fake polls but the fact is Virginia is NOT as blue as everyone says just remember you're garbage polls come Election Day I mean look at the 2016 polls in Virginia some had Hillary up 12 points,warner was up by 10 only won by 0.9 just stop with you're fake Virginia polls.

You have no idea what you are talking about, the polls nailed Virginia in 2016:



 

[Gass3268]

I don't think a lot of people are saying that Gillespie will win, or that the polls are wrong (or at least I'm not) Just from what I've read, the polling, the ads etc I get the sense that the race could be going a lot better for Northam.

I know statewide races are different, and there's a possible danger in making it national (it's Virginia, not New York) but I don't know why Warren/Booker/Harris/Kaine etc aren't campaigning and why national democrats aren't making a lot of noise about this race.

Kaine at minimum

I've heard talk that Obama will be campaigning in October for Northam and Murphy.

[Gass3268]

If this mailer is what's needed to get Loudoun and Prince William to vote Gillespie, so be it.

Good to know you support racism.