VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Gass3268]

Early vote map:



Green: Early vote increase today is greater than the statewide increase of 150% compared to 2013
Yellow: Early vote increase today is higher than it was in 2013, but less than the statewide increase of 150%
Red: Early vote is below where it was today in 2013
Grey: No data

Source

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Trump's leaving for is long trip to Asia this morning. Means we will see no Trump events for Gillespie before Election Day.

[Gass3268]

So more bad news for northam Douglas wilder has no endorsement.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GovernorWilder/status/926129906576224256?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

LOL. I believe Wilder has done this with literally every Democratic nominee for Governor since he stepped down. He's about as representative of and influential among Democrats as "Democratic pollster" Pat Cadell.

He did endorse Fairfax.

[Gass3268]

Gillespie+3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/VA_TPC_Topline_Oct_30-Nov_2.pdf

I don't know why we don't count the polls with the Libertarian included.

[Gass3268]

Gillespie is closing hard and should finish off Northam with ads about the Redskins.

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Where is this from?

[Gass3268]

http://firehousestrategies.com/vagov/

It appears Optimus Prime had a child named 0ptimus polling, they've got it at:

Gillespie:  40.4
Northam:  37.4

No undecideds or Hyra.

I am not posting this abomination in the polling board.

Plus it's landline only

[Gass3268]

http://firehousestrategies.com/vagov/

It appears Optimus Prime had a child named 0ptimus polling, they've got it at:

Gillespie:  40.4
Northam:  37.4

No undecideds or Hyra.

I am not posting this abomination in the polling board.

Øptimus is the same polling firm that had Roy Moore up 55%-45% three days before Moore won 54.6%-45.4% so...

Gillespie by 2-3 pp.

So Gillespie is going to win 40-37?

[Gass3268]

The pollsters aren't sure either.

Yeah, it really doesn't help that polling is all over the place. Based on the election fundamentals and the heavy Democratic lean of the state (the latter seems to be an extremely underrated factor for some reason), I have a hard time believing that Gillespie can make it closer than 2, though. Northam winning by 2-2.5 is my current guess, and even that is probably fairly generous to Rs given that we're talking about an off-year election in VA here and the Democratic base is energized. Northam winning by more than 7 or Gillespie eking out a victory are the only two possible outcomes that would really surprise me.

I think this has been posted recently, but its a really good article explaining the vast differences in polling.

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