NC-Bloomberg/Selzer: Clinton +1, Clinton +1 (3-way)

[Gass3268]

Excellent poll as Bloomberg has a super strict likely voter screen.

[Gass3268]

Excellent poll as Bloomberg has a super strict likely voter screen.

http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rxPNLi0mj2SU/v0
How so? They include you if you say you voted or will definitely vote... Not like some weird polls asking if you know who your representative is.

Most likely voter screens will accept "probably will vote."

[Gass3268]

Excellent poll as Bloomberg has a super strict likely voter screen.

http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rxPNLi0mj2SU/v0
How so? They include you if you say you voted or will definitely vote... Not like some weird polls asking if you know who your representative is.

Most likely voter screens will accept "probably will vote."

Some do, some don't.  But rather than screening particular voters as yes-or-no, I think they'd do better with a probabilistic model, e.g.:

100% weight if "already voted"
95% if "certain to vote"
80% if "very likely to vote"
50% if "somewhat likely to vote"
etc.

Or maybe some pollsters do this and I'm just not aware of it.  (Don't quibble about the numbers; they're just for example purposes.)

That would make the most sense.