538 Model Megathread

[Gass3268]

Alaska is at 30% on Polls Only - higher than GA

Probably because no one has polled GA since Hillary has had her comeback.

No, the states should move around based on national polls. Alaska is light pink due to its high uncertainty; the actual predicted margin is still more Republican than Georgia.

They move because of the national polls, but their partisan order (think of that snake they have) are based on state polls.

[Gass3268]

That NBC/WSJ poll is going to do some real cool things to the models

I keep refreshing it, lol!

[Gass3268]

Damn, Florida is over 70% in the polls-only.

[Gass3268]

Clinton up to 45% national for the first time since August 9th in the polls-only.

[Gass3268]

Interesting that Arizona's gone back in Clinton's direction after leaving her after the convention bounce but Georgia hasn't

Mormon collapse would account for it.

Lack of recent polling in Georgia too.

[Gass3268]

Depending on what Monmouth shows, this could get close fast here.

[Gass3268]

Why is South Dakota less safe than the other Plains states?

Google Consumer Surveys has had the race in the low single digits for Trump over the course of the last month.

[Gass3268]

Every state in the blue wall is now over 85% for Clinton.

[Gass3268]

With the Bloomberg Clinton +9, the PRRI Clinton +15 and the Arizona Clinton +4 poll, 538 will most likely have Clinton at or slightly above 50% of the popular vote in at least one of their models, possibly two (polls-only and Nowcast)

This actually resulted in Clinton's win % dropping by 0.1, huh?

[Gass3268]

Trump's been gaining ground every day since the debate. Am I right to be a little nervous?

If you look at the trend line, since the first debate you can see when there was lots of polling, Hillary's chances go up bigly and when there is a lull in polling her chances start to decline slowly.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

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In short, no.

Take away Nate's "unskewing" and the race is almost back to pre-pussygate levels (2-way):

RCP is biased on what polls they put in their averages. Republican firms like Remington are fine, but not Democratic ones like PPP or Democracy Corps.