100 Senate Regions

[Gass3268]

Region: Northern Piedmont (Green)
Largest City: Arlington, VA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President George Washington
PVI: D+6

Obama 2012: 57.3%
Romney 2012: 41.9%

Obama 2008: 58.2%
McCain 2008: 40.8%

Region Swing: 2.1% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Virginia: 100

Region Comment
Originally for this region I just wanted the Washington suburbs in Virginia (not including Clarke, Paige or Warren counties as from personal experience they are clearly part of the Shenandoah area). Unfortunately that only results in about 60% of what is needed for a region. Originally I wanted to go get all of the eastern peninsula counties along and south of the Potomac River, but they are way too under-populated to get the region to the necessary population. Therefore I had to move south and add the Charlottesville metropolitan area to this region. Mark Warner lives in Northern Virginia and he would dominate this region.  

[Gass3268]

Region: Lower Chesapeake Bay (Purple)
Largest City: Virginia Beach, VA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Pocahontas
PVI: D+1

Obama 2012: 52.8%
Romney 2012: 46.0%

Obama 2008: 53.5%
McCain 2008: 45.7%

Region Swing: 1.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.4% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Delaware: 11%
Maryland: 6%
North Carolina: 24%
Virginia: 59%

Region Comment
When drawing this district I wanted it to be what was left of the Delvamar peninsula along with the Hampton Roads metropolitan area (plus Sussex County, VA which is in the Richmond metropolitan area but looks so much better when added to this region). Unfortunately this resulted in the region still needing about 750,000 to reach minimum population. Adding the Richmond metropolitan area would have it go way over the maximum allowed population, so I had to go into Northeast North Carolina. Republican Congressman Scott Rigell would a very strong candidate for this region give his relative moderate imagine and the fact he represents the largest city in this region. Congressmen Bobby Scott of Newport News, VA and G.K. Butterfield of Wilson, NC.

[Gass3268]

Region: Tobacco Road (Cyan)
Largest City: Raleigh, NC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Governor Patrick Henry
PVI: D+4

Obama 2012: 55.1%
Romney 2012: 43.6%

Obama 2008: 56.3%
McCain 2008: 42.6%

Region Swing: 2.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
North Carolina: 57%
Virginia: 43%

Region Comment
When drawing this district I first wanted it to be the Richmond metropolitan area and then go from there on what I needed to add. The Richmond metropolitan area is about 40% of what is needed for a region. At first I thought of adding the Shenandoah Valley area, but that would not have had enough people and it would have been a very ugly looking region and the two areas really don't have much in common with the Charlottesville area blocking the two. So instead I went into North Carolina and added the Research Triangle area (Durham-Chapel Hill and Raleigh metropolitan areas). Tim Kaine is from Richmond and would in all likelihood be the Senator from this region.

[Gass3268]

The TX splits don't seem to follow your rules. The DFW urban county cluster is good for two senate districts one of which is the majority-minority carve out, but Johnson and Ellis were left out in your proposal. Also in south TX you split the Austin UCC, but it doesn't create a VRA district or even a real minority opportunity district. The stronger minority situation would link San Antonio to El Paso and bring the Lower Rio Grande northward through Corpus Christi.

I'll post what I'm describing later this morning.

I like your idea for South Texas, this was a pretty frustrating are because both Austin and San Antonio UCC's don't have enough people for a region each, but are too large for one region together. I never thought of splitting the Rio Grande district, but that could work. Ellis/Johnson could not fit in the suburban DFW region because of geography and it put the region over the population limit. Unless you have a better way to draw it?

[Gass3268]

The TX splits don't seem to follow your rules. The DFW urban county cluster is good for two senate districts one of which is the majority-minority carve out, but Johnson and Ellis were left out in your proposal. Also in south TX you split the Austin UCC, but it doesn't create a VRA district or even a real minority opportunity district. The stronger minority situation would link San Antonio to El Paso and bring the Lower Rio Grande northward through Corpus Christi.

I'll post what I'm describing later this morning.

I like your idea for South Texas, but Ellis/Johnson could not fit in the suburban DFW region because of geography and it put the region over the population limit. Unless you have a better way to draw it?

Here's what I put together respecting all the UCCs. 2 VRA districts are established in south TX (58.1% and 67.2% HVAP) and 2 minority coalition districts are established in DFW and Houston. All four were carried by Obama in 2008.

I really like this. Do you happen to have the population and raw vote totals for the inner DFW and Houston regions? I need those to do the add-ups and calculations for PVI's, swings, trends and population deviation.

[Gass3268]

Region: Triad & Shenandoah Valley  (Beige)
Largest City: Greensboro, NC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Booker T. Washington
PVI: R+8

Obama 2012: 42.8%
Romney 2012: 55.6%

Obama 2008: 45.5%
McCain 2008: 53.4%

Region Swing: 4.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.5% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
North Carolina: 51%
Virginia: 49%

Region Comment
I drew this region after drawing the red Coal Country region. I was very happy that I was able to keep the entire Triad whole while adding what was left of Virginia. Richard Burr is from this region and he would probably represent it. Kay Hagen lives in Greensboro, but this is way too Republican for her.

[Gass3268]

The TX splits don't seem to follow your rules. The DFW urban county cluster is good for two senate districts one of which is the majority-minority carve out, but Johnson and Ellis were left out in your proposal. Also in south TX you split the Austin UCC, but it doesn't create a VRA district or even a real minority opportunity district. The stronger minority situation would link San Antonio to El Paso and bring the Lower Rio Grande northward through Corpus Christi.

I'll post what I'm describing later this morning.

I like your idea for South Texas, but Ellis/Johnson could not fit in the suburban DFW region because of geography and it put the region over the population limit. Unless you have a better way to draw it?

Here's what I put together respecting all the UCCs. 2 VRA districts are established in south TX (58.1% and 67.2% HVAP) and 2 minority coalition districts are established in DFW and Houston. All four were carried by Obama in 2008.

I really like this. Do you happen to have the population and raw vote totals for the inner DFW and Houston regions? I need those to do the add-ups and calculations for PVI's, swings, trends and population deviation.

For DFW: 3,068,901 pop; 37.0% WVAP, 22.8% BVAP, 33.7% HVAP; Pres 08: D 540,244, R 370,312.

For Houston: 3,142,095 pop; 30.5% WVAP, 20.8% BVAP, 40.9% HVAP; Pres 08: D 487,391, R 349,032

I hope that helps. I am also curious how many Latino districts you have in CA. Based on 2010 numbers, there should be at least 3 where Latinos would control the outcome (50% HCVAP or > 60% HVAP).

Thanks for that!

The Downtown/South Central Los Angeles region is over 50% HCVAP with a large black minority (like 20-25%) and whites only making up like 15%. The region to the east of it in LA County is like plurality Hispanic (around 40%) with a large Asian influence (around 30%) with whites around 25%. I also think the central valley district would also be over 50% or at least pretty close. I wish I could have had official demographic information for this, but my DRA runs extremely slow for basically any state larger than Virginia. Unless there is a place were I could get the data in like a excel sheet. If that was the case I could add everything up from what I have and maybe make some changes.

[Gass3268]

Region: Central Appalachia (Red)
Largest City: Charleston, WV
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd
PVI: R+16

Obama 2012: 32.8%
Romney 2012: 64.9%

Obama 2008: 40.0%
McCain 2008: 58.1%

Region Swing: 14.1% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 10.7% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Kentucky: 25%
Maryland 8%
Virginia: 8%
West Virginia: 59%

Region Comment
My goal he was to keep as much of the southern Coal County together and I am very happy how this region turned out. Amazing to think that Bill Clinton probably won this region in both 92 and 96. Joe Manchin would have a decent shot to stay in the Senate, representing this region but I would not be shocked if someone like Shelly Moore Capito beat him.

[Gass3268]

Region: Bluegrass Country (Cyan)
Largest City: Louisville, KY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Speaker Of The House Henry Clay
PVI: R+10

Obama 2012: 41.0%
Romney 2012: 57.3%

Obama 2008: 43.2%
McCain 2008: 55.2%

Region Swing: 4.3% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.9% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Indiana: 10%
Kentucky: 90%

Region Comment
My initial objective here was to have the Louisville metropolitan area and the rest of Kentucky together. Unfortunately there was just too much of suburban Louisville that I had to grab in Indiana. So I return I have the Jackson Purchase region of Kentucky to the Central/West Tennessee region as that area is culturally regarded as the most "Southern" region of Kentucky. Both Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul live in this region, so McConnell is probably the Senator from here. However a Paul primary of McConnell would be expected.

[Gass3268]

Region: Sandhills & Pee Dee (Brown)
Largest City: Fayetteville, NC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Governor Richard Dobbs Spaight
PVI: R+5

Obama 2012: 47.2%
Romney 2012: 51.9%

Obama 2008: 47.2%
McCain 2008: 51.9%

Region Swing: 0.1% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
North Carolina: 71%
South Carolina 29%

Region Comment
This was the last region that I drew in North Carolina and the Southeastern part of the state made up about 70% of what was needed for a region, so I had to get the rest from South Carolina. It was as able to get enough into the region without having to get into the Charleston or Columbia metropolitan areas, which was great. Mike McIntyre would be a strong candidate here for the Democrats if he was interested in jumping back into politics. Congressman Tom Rice from Myrtle Beach, SC would have a solid base of support too as a Republican.

[Gass3268]

Region: Central Piedmont (Pink)
Largest City: Charlotte, NC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Andrew Jackson
PVI: R+7

Obama 2012: 43.8%
Romney 2012: 54.8%

Obama 2008: 45.1%
McCain 2008: 53.9%

Region Swing: 2.3% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.1% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
North Carolina: 87%
South Carolina 13%

Region Comment
This region combines the Charlotte metropolitan area and a portion of Western North Carolina that was needed to get this region to the necessary population. Thom Tillis has this region if he wants it.

[Gass3268]

Region: Southern Appalachia (Blue)
Largest City: Knoxville, TN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Andrew Johnson
PVI: R+17

Obama 2012: 33.4%
Romney 2012: 64.8%

Obama 2008: 36.0%
McCain 2008: 62.5%

Region Swing: 5.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.6% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Georgia: 5%
North Carolina: 20%
Tennessee: 73%
Virginia: 3%

Region Comment
The goal for this region was to combine what was left with Eastern Tennessee. This included adding parts of the Bristol and Chattanooga metro areas that go into Virginia and Georgia respectively. Bob Corker would probably be Senator from this region.   

[Gass3268]

Region: Cumberland & Plaines (Green)
Largest City: Nashville, TN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President James K. Polk
PVI: R+12

Obama 2012: 38.0%
Romney 2012: 60.4%

Obama 2008: 41.10%
McCain 2008: 57.5%

Region Swing: 6.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.6% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Kentucky: 5%
Tennessee: 95%

Region Comment
The original objective of this region was for it to be Central Tennessee and Western Tennessee (minus Shelby County, which was always going to be added to a Mississippi Delta region). I was forced to add the Jackson Purchase area of Kentucky to this region in order to get the Bluegrass Country region under the maximum amount allowed. This would be Lamar Alexander's region.

[Gass3268]

Region: Congaree Swamps (Orange)
Largest City: Columbia, SC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Vice President John C Calhoun
PVI: R+8

Obama 2012: 43.4%
Romney 2012: 55.1%

Obama 2008: 44.1%
McCain 2008: 54.6%

Region Swing: 1.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
South Carolina: 100%

Region Comment
When I first drew this area I wanted to have what was left of South Carolina split in two. The Charleston and Columbia metropolitan areas combined with the Augusta and Savannah metropolitan areas of Georgia, while the Northwest metros of Greenville and Spartanburg would join with the Northeast counties in Georgia and maybe the Atlanta suburbs. This did not work as there was too many people in Northwest South Carolina and Northern Georgia for one region, but not enough for two. So in the end I essentially kept what was left of South Carolina together. The Hilton Head area had to be added to a Georgia centric region, but this makes sense do to their economic connections with Savannah, GA. Both Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott are from this region, but imagine that Graham would be the current Senator.

[Gass3268]

Region: ATL (Purple)
Largest City: Atlanta, GA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King J.
PVI: D+14

Obama 2012: 65.5%
Romney 2012: 32.9%

Obama 2008: 66.4%
McCain 2008: 33.0%

Region Swing: 0.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.7% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Georgia: 100%

Region Comment
The goal here was to create an African-American opportunity region, but unfortunately there are not enough African-Americans to have it over 50% VAP. There are however enough Asian and Hispanics that are of voting age that it is very possible to create a minority-majority collation region that would elect an African American to Congress. Congressman John Lewis would be my choice to run from this region.

[Gass3268]

I should probably at this point discuss how I got the Obama-Romney numbers for areas where I had to split the counties. For Essex County, MA, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Cobb County, GA, Fulton County, GA and Gwinnett County, GA I was able to find ward/precinct maps that matched the lines in DRA and I was able to find the corresponding 2012 data. Unfortunately do to either map changes or huge burden presented by the sheer size of the counties, I had to make estimates for Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, New York County, NY, Queens County, NY, Cook County, IL, Harris County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Maricopa County, AZ and Los Angeles County, CA. The estimates were done by applying the total county swing to each part of the county. I know this isn't a perfect method, but I imagine it is close and that the percentages wouldn't be off by much. 

[Gass3268]

Region: Southern Piedmont (Beige)
Largest City: Sandy Springs, GA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Speaker Of The House Newt Gingrich
PVI: R+23

Obama 2012: 27.2%
Romney 2012: 71.3%

Obama 2008: 30.5%
McCain 2008: 68.3%

Region Swing: 6.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.8% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Georgia: 100%

Region Comment
This region was drawn to be the non-minority Atlanta suburban region. There was not enough people purely in the outer Atlanta metropolitan area counties, so counties to the north and west of the metropolitan area had to be added to this region. Johnny Isakson is from suburban Marietta, so he would in all likelihood be the Senator for this region.

[Gass3268]

Region: Southern Coastal Plain (Yellow)
Largest City: Augusta, GA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Jimmy Carter
PVI: R+6

Obama 2012: 45.1%
Romney 2012: 53.7%

Obama 2008: 45.9%
McCain 2008: 52.9%

Region Swing: 1.6% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.8% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Georgia: 94%
South Carolina: 6%

Region Comment
My original hope for this district was that it could be the remainder of the Georgia, plus the two counties that was left over from South Carolina. Unfortunately there was about 15% more than allowed in Georgia, so I had to give a good chuck of deep Southern Georgia to a Northern Florida/Jacksonville metropolitan region. Former Republican Congressman Jack Kingston lives this region, formally represented a significant portion of it, and won a lot of it in his primary against Perdue. For the Democrats it would be fun to see how John Barrow would do here now that he's not in the House anymore.

[Gass3268]

Region: First & Nature Coasts (Cyan)
Largest City: Jacksonville, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: A. Philip Randolph
PVI: R+8

Obama 2012: 42.7%
Romney 2012: 56.0%

Obama 2008: 44.3%
McCain 2008: 54.6%

Region Swing: 3.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.4% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 84%
Georgia: 16%

Region Comment
I drew this region after I drew all of the other regions south of it in Florida. Was pleased that I was able use the Apalachicola River as the western boundary, which was the old boundary line between East and West Florida. Plus I had to had 16% from South Georgia so this region could reach the necessary minimum population and the South Georgia region could be under the minimum. David Perdue lives in this region, but I imagine that someone from the Jacksonville area would represent this region. Someone like Congressman Ron DeSantis who is currently running to replace Marco Rubio.

[Gass3268]

As I continue to look at CA between hangs of DRA, I conclude that there should be two 60+ HVAP districts in LAC where one connects to OC with Anaheim/Santa Ana. The best I could do with SB and Riverside was to add Pomona then stretch it all the way to Imperial then back along the border to SW SD county. That only gets to 58% HVAP, so 60+ isn't plausible there.

Other observations of CA. CA is just barely over 12 districts. SoCal minus Kern and Imperial is just right for 7 districts. Kern plus the north is almost exactly 5 districts. So keep Imperial with Arizona, but I'm not sure the Riverside chop follows your rules.

I really don't know yet what I am going to do with Southern California. I like the fact that Orange and San Diego counties have exactly enough for each to be their own region and I don't think I want to mess with that. I should have noted with my rules that no one rule is more important than the other and I should have noted that minority-majority collation regions, like the South Central Black/Hispanic and the Eastern LA County Asian/Hispanic regions, are acceptable. I feel like due to the sheer size of these regions, having minority collations would be necessary and probably allowable. My fear with making your proposed changes is that it would really mess up and dramatically alter the rest of the regions in the Southwest, especially in Arizona, Nevada and Utah. 

[Gass3268]

Region: Everglades & Southern Gold Coast (Blue)
Largest City: Miami, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Ernest Hemmingway
PVI: D+4

Obama 2012: 57.2%
Romney 2012: 42.2%

Obama 2008: 54.8%
McCain 2008: 44.6%

Region Swing: 4.9% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 8.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
My main objective for Florida this time around was to keep all of the counties whole. I was able to do that by putting Miami Dade County with some of the Southwestern Florida counties. This would still be a majority Hispanic region. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart would both be strong candidates for the Republicans, while this would also be a good spot for former Congressman, and Cuban Democrat, Joe Garcia.

[Gass3268]

Region: Northern Gold Coast (Blue)
Largest City: Fort Lauderdale, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Philip Don Estridge
PVI: D+12

Obama 2012: 63.1%
Romney 2012: 36.2%

Obama 2008: 64.4%
McCain 2008: 35.0%

Region Swing: 2.4% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.0% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
By combing parts of Southwestern Florida with Miami Dade, I was able to create a region with just Broward and Palm Beach County. Say hello to Senator Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.

[Gass3268]

Region: Tampa Bay (Brown)
Largest City: Tampa, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Odet Philipe
PVI: R+1

Obama 2012: 50.1%
Romney 2012: 48.6%

Obama 2008: 51.2%
McCain 2008: 47.5%

Region Swing: 2.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
This district was originally drawn with Citrus and Levy counties. I wanted to avoid having to put Manatee or Sarasota counties in this region. I was eventually forced to put Manatee county in this region because of population issues in the not so pretty orange region. Volusia County has 16% of the population needed for region and when Manatee County is in the orange region adding Volusia County puts it over the maximum population allowed and taking it out drops it below the minimum. Charlie Crist won this district in 2014 for Governor, so he'd probably win this region if he wanted another stab at the Senate. Congressmen Gus Bilirakis and David Jolly would be good candidates for the Republicans.

[Gass3268]

Forgot to repost the map:

[Gass3268]

Region: Central Highlands (Purple)
Largest City: Orlando, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Zora Neale Hurston
PVI: R+2

Obama 2012: 49.7%
Romney 2012: 49.1%

Obama 2008: 50.7%
McCain 2008: 48.3%

Region Swing: 1.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.5% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
This is the Orlando metropolitan area region. The metro area on its own does not have enough people for one region, so I added other Central Florida counties such as Lake, Osceola and Sumter counties. Bill Nelson lives in this region and during his last election he won all but two counties in this region. This would be his Senate seat.