Here is where things are right now:
Here is where I see the 2015/2016 elections:
In 2015 Democrats are having to defend Kentucky, as of now I think that's a Republican pick up. Democrats have no chance in Louisiana or Mississippi.
In 2016 incumbent Governors are term limited in Delaware, Missouri and West Virginia. As of now Democrats keep Delaware but lose Missouri and West Virginia to Republicans. I don't see Democrats losing New Hampshire or Washington, but they both certainly could be close races depending on the Republican candidate. Montana will be a tossup, but as of now my gut tells me that Bullock pulls out a close win like 2012. I don't see Republicans losing in Indiana or North Dakota, so take them off the board. Utah would be interesting if Matheson runs, but I still think the Republicans would win. As of now I'm picking the Democrats to pick up North Carolina as the incumbent is very unpopular, but obviously this could change.
2017 will be a big year for Democrats as they need to get New Jersey back if they want any chance of getting to 26. Also they need to defend Virginia. I'm gonna guess right now that Democrats win both races.
So before the 2018 elections, if my previous predictions are correct, the partisan divide will be 32 Republicans / 17 Democrats / 1 Independent. That means that Democrats would need to pick up 9 (12 if they don't pick up any seats between now and 2018, while still losing Montana, New Jersey and North Carolina), which would be hard.
Here are my tiers (For the sake of this Alaska is considered to have a Democratic Gov, because as of now I don't see a Democrat challenging Walker, but for the overall numbers he is still a Democrat):
Tier 1 (Should win) (30%)Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Tier 2 (Competitive) (40%) Florida
Michigan (Synder is term limited)
Nevada (Sandoval is term limited, but Democratic bench was destroyed)
New Mexico (Martinez is term limited, could possibly be moved to Tier 1)
Ohio (Kasich is term limited, but Democratic Party of Ohio sucks, could be moved to Tier 3)
Wisconsin
Tier 3 (Could be competitive, but gonna need help to win) (50%)Arizona
Georgia
Iowa (If Branstad finally retires, this moves up to Tier 2)
Tier 4 (Not gonna happen) (60%)Alabama
Arkansas (Done for the Democrats)
Idaho
Kansas (If it couldn't happen this year)
Nebraska
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming
Previous predictions and Democrats/Independents re-winning their 2014 victories are gray.
If the Democrats win back Illinois, Maine, Maryland and Massachusetts, which they should, they would need to get 5 to 8 of Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin. Not easy, but not impossible.
