Wisconsin Megathread

[Gass3268]

Cook Political Report: Wisconsin: Likely Rep======> Lean Rep.
To be honest, I don't understand. Of course Wisconsin is between lean/likely rep, but why this change?

Probably because it has to look like Cook is responding the the release of the Joe Doe emails. I still don't think Walker will lose, but it could be a bit closer now. I'd love to see a new poll in the state.

[Gass3268]

Assembly Majority Leader Bill Kramer might be resigning his post due to sexual harassment accusations. It seems that the Republican leadership has recently reached that conclusion. 

http://host.madison.com/news/state-and-regional/sources-wis-assembly-leader-may-resign-post/article_f39a1ef5-dc9b-540b-8c5e-1670557003b6.html

[Gass3268]

This is strange james o'keefe seems to have targeted a republican and it was with something actually serious. This one seems to be a Dem pickup opportunity aswell.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/ellis-drops-out-of-senate-race-b99245893z1-254907211.html

Dang, two possible Dem pickups. Too bad these seats weren't up in 2012 or 2016.

[Gass3268]

State senator Joe Leibham, representing the 9th district, would be interested to run for Petri's seat. An another pick up possibilty for the democrats? Obama carried this district by 4 points in 2008 (and Romney carried this district by 7 points in 2012)

Nah. That guy isn't going to win against Petri in a primary, and no democrat is picking up that seat.

Petri is retiring EG!

Oh, well I still don't expect anything to change. GOP already has 3 candidates in the race, any clear frontrunner?

Yes, this guy

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/253734901.html

And that's why we are saying this could be somewhat competitive.

[Gass3268]

State senator Joe Leibham, representing the 9th district, would be interested to run for Petri's seat. An another pick up possibilty for the democrats? Obama carried this district by 4 points in 2008 (and Romney carried this district by 7 points in 2012)

Nah. That guy isn't going to win against Petri in a primary, and no democrat is picking up that seat.

Petri is retiring EG!

Oh, well I still don't expect anything to change. GOP already has 3 candidates in the race, any clear frontrunner?

Yes, this guy

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/253734901.html

And that's why we are saying this could be somewhat competitive.

And you Gass, if the 9th district is open, is it a potential dem pick up?

The 9th would be a really hard pick up. The Sheboygan-Manitowoc area, even though it was historically Democratic (look at 1960 Presidential election), is pretty Republican now. It would be very hard for a Democrat to win. However, the mayor of Manitowoc is a Democrat and pretty popular. If he were to run, I think it would at least be competitive.   

[Gass3268]

They still have "protesters" in the capitol.  I'm told they sing socialist songs in the rotunda everyday around noon...  in a manner that scares (and scars) school children on tours.   

WHO WILL THINK OF THE CHILDREN!!!

[Gass3268]

Can we end this pointless discussion? Its killing a perfectly good electoral thread.

Thank you!

[Gass3268]

So if Walker runs for President and wins the nomination and resigns mid 2016 to free him from the campaign finance rules against Governors does Kleefisch remain Governor until 2018 or is a special election called?

She'd remain governor.

[Gass3268]

Beautiful ad

[Gass3268]

Looks like Grothman is going to win. Only candidate that could make the 6th competitive.

[Gass3268]

Looks like Grothman is going to win. Only candidate that could make the 6th competitive.

On a scale of 1 to Bachmann, how unelectable is he?

I'll let you decided.

I know that some of these are from left leaning sites, but I think it gets the point across.

Proposes Law That Declares Single Parenthood Child Abuse

"Women make less because ‘Money is more important for men"

Fights For A Seven-Day Workweek

More Quotes

[Gass3268]

Looks like Grothman is going to win. Only candidate that could make the 6th competitive.

On a scale of 1 to Bachmann, how unelectable is he?

I'll let you decided.

I know that some of these are from left leaning sites, but I think it gets the point across.

Proposes Law That Declares Single Parenthood Child Abuse

"Women make less because ‘Money is more important for men"

Fights For A Seven-Day Workweek

More Quotes

I must say Gass, I'm rather underwhelmed by your scare quotes from Grothman. A little inarticulate maybe, but a lot of what he said is not wrong.

I would have to disagree and it appears that Maxy does as well!   Also I just read that Mark Harris, who as the Winnebago County Executive should be a formidable opponent, has barely raised any money. Maybe this will help him bring in some cash. I'd have to put this district at Lean R right now, but it could easily move to either Likely R/Safe R or Toss Up.   

[Gass3268]

Also this is from the Democratic Primary for the 17th Senate District:

Ernie Wittwer   Dem   3,828   50%
Pat Bomhack   Dem   3,826   50%


There was a really nasty primary here. This is good news for Howard Marklein in his efforts to replace Senator Shultz.

[Gass3268]

Really bad editorial for Governor Walker from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel regarding the projected $1.8 billion deficient. MJS endorsed Walker in both 2010 and the 2012 recalls. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/if-theres-a-budget-mess-this-time-it-belongs-to-gov-scott-walker-b99348256z1-274616501.html

[Gass3268]

Mary Burke praises Reagan in new ad.

I'd say this is the best ad so far in this race.

Her ads have been excellent almost all cycle. A much better campaigner than Barrett ever was.

[Gass3268]

Walker's camp accusing Christie of intentionally under-funding him to get rid of a 2016 rival!

Email from conservative grandee: if Walker loses, it'll be "like when [Christie] didn't show up in [PA] for Romney"

Robert Costa also reports on his twitter that Burke is preparing to go nuclear in the final 10 days, hitting Walker hard on his scandals and the 2011 union saga.

Looks like Burke's got the wind in her sails now! Her closing ad is really fantastic IMO. Manages to tie all the themes of her and others' attacks on Walker together.

You almost never hear stories like this when things are going well. This is awesome news! Only 12 more days!

[Gass3268]

Obama is coming to Milwaukee today to campaign for Burke. This is the start of a 6 state swing that includes Michigan, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Pennsylvania.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/28/obama-2014-elections_n_6062152.html

[Gass3268]

Obama is coming to Milwaukee today to campaign for Burke. This is the start of a 6 state swing that includes Michigan, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Pennsylvania.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/28/obama-2014-elections_n_6062152.html

RIP Burke

Don't worry, it isn't Michelle Obama.

It makes sense why he's coming, need to fire up minority voters in Milwaukee. I can't see this becoming an issue in the rest of the state.

[Gass3268]

You people seriously over estimate how much voters care about this stuff.

Crap, I ment to say this will not be an issue in the rest of the state.

[Gass3268]

Burke letting Obama come in is a big sign of confidence on her part.

Agreed, its all about GOTV now and Obama helps you do that in Milwaukee.

[Gass3268]

Burke fired by family from Trek for incompetence

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Let me know when a legitimate news outlet reports this, k?

[Gass3268]

Ummmm...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/purple-wisconsin/280884742.html

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin State Journal endorses Burke after endorsing Walker in 2010 and the 2012 recall.

http://host.madison.com/news/opinion/editorial/burke-best-fit-to-reenergize-state-economy/article_705e6745-6bf3-5f40-a301-b774e4b320df.html#.VFY7ivh5Inw.facebook

[Gass3268]

There are actually Walker-Walker-Obama-Baldwin-Walker voters out there. Idiots.

Those are some pretty cool people.

They are actually Bush-Bush-Obama-Walker/Johnson-Walker-Obama/Baldwin-Walker voters.

[Gass3268]

Everyone knows what happened on the Governor level, but I imagine some might be interested in what happened on the down races.

Attorney General and State Treasurer had essentially the same results as the Governor race, with the Democrat doing a little bit better in the Treasurer contest. Schimel won 51.6%-45.4% and Matt Adamczyk won 48.8%-44.8%. Democrat Doug La Follette pulled out another win in a wave year, winning 50.0-46.3%. I have to imagine his last name is the main reason he's been successful in these elections that have not been good for Democrats, even though he's of no relation to the famous family. This was the only good news for the Democrats the entire night.

There was some discussion before the election that the Democrats would have a chance to take back the State Senate. I personally did not think it was possible, but I thought they could net at least 1 seat. In reality the Republicans had a net gain and the body with be 19-14 Republican. Van Wanggaard won back the newly heavily gerrymandered seat comprised of rural/suburban Kenosha and Racine counties 61.5%-38.5%. Democrats failed to gain SD-17 which was previously held by a very moderate Republican in Dale Schultz. Obama won this district with 57.3% of the vote in 2012, but Republican Howard Marklein won 55.1%-44.9%. Another district Democrats thought they had a chance in was SD-19, which Obama won with 50.01% of the vote in 2012. Incumbent Michael Ellis retired and the Democrats got what appeared to be a very good candidate in Representative Penny Bernard Schaber. Roger Roth ended up winning easily 57.2-42.8%. Democrats also almost lost two districts that should have never been close (SD-25 Obama 56.4% and SD-31 Obama 55.2%).

In the Assembly, it appears that Democrats lost 3 seats (2 seats are still uncalled, but Republicans will probably win). Republicans in all likelihood will have a majority of 63-36. They gained AD-70, which was gerrymandered to an Obama loss of 49.2%, beating incumbent Amy Sue Vruwink 52.8%-47.2%. Democrats also lost AD-75 held by Stephen Smith 54.9%-45.1%. This was excepted as Smith only won in 2012 because his opponent made a Akin/Murdock like rape remark and Obama only got 48.1% in the District in 2012. The most shocking loss imo, was Mandy Wright losing in the 85th District 50.2%-49.8%. This district was actually originally drawn to be as Dem friendly as possible in the area, but signs where showing that this district, like the rest in this region, was slipping from the Democrats as Obama only won here with 52.1% of the vote in 2012. Democrats also failed to win any seats for themselves in the Assembly. This again includes AD-51 in the far western portion of the Madison Metro area, which Obama won 59.8%. Republican Todd Novak beat Democrat Dick Cates 47.5%-47.2% in a seat that Obama almost got 60% of the vote. That's how bad the Democrats night was in Wisconsin!