Wisconsin Megathread

[Gass3268]

Has Vinehout laid out any sort of timetable? At this point, it seems like she is the only credible candidate left for the Dems in a state that they should be putting a lot of effort into.

Who else is on the Dem bench in Wisconsin? I've never worked in the state and I'm not really too familiar with its politics.

Jennifer Shilling would also be a strong candidate.

She's already declined.

[Gass3268]

Soglin would be the Corbyn of the Wisconsin Dems. Old, stale Dem, no new ideas, lives in the past. Loved in Madison but from what I can tell really hasn't done much of anything lately.

Madison's economy is bombing, while the rest of the state is spotty. I think that could be a plus. He's also actually more fiscally responsible than would would assume. Yet I agree, his past would be problematic. Vinehout is the best choice. I still think almost anyone could beat Walker (and he could beat anyone). Trump's approval will play a big part.

[Gass3268]

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But remember it's all Doyle's fault.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin Assembly working on a call for a constitutional convention for a balanced budget amendment. Scary to think how close it is, if enough states pass it the 1st Amendment is one that will be gone for sure, no matter what they say the reason they're calling it is for.

Luckily, both Delaware and Maryland have rescinded their prior call.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

The same people predicting this race and other Wisconsin races as Democrat pickups are those who pronounced Ron Johnson dead on arrival. I just thought I better mention that.

Nah, of course not, but WI tends to be very favorable to Democrats in off-year elections, especially when a Republican is president. I still think Walker's race is Lean R for sure, but the Supreme Court race and the Senate race are probably Lean D at this point, unfortunately. Still, I'm definitely not making any confident predictions at this point, I'll leave that to other users.

But I don't think Republicans should get their hopes up here, honestly.

The State Supreme Court race is an outright toss-up at this point. I don't even think we know who the candidates are yet, and the race is an officially non-partisan spring election. How people claim to know which party will win that is beyond me.

Partisan redistricting Crt fight in WI and PA will influence the outcomes of these elections in the Democrats favor. The GOP has maxed many of its gains.  Don't forget the Trump GOP bill that gets rid of medicaid expansion, is the same bill Walker championed(Expanding Obamacare) in his reelection fight.  Dems have reason to believe they will win in 2018.

Oh, I think Tammy Baldwin will win. But the Supreme Court is a non-partisan spring election often done by itself. Its dynamics could be very isolated from the larger context.

I think Dems/lefties missed out greatly by not putting up a challenger in this year's race. The anti-Trump folks were in high gear supporting Evers and they might have been able to push a challenger over the top.

[Gass3268]

Lt. Gov Rebecca Kleefisch will not run for the Senate seat, will run again for Lt. Gov.

[Gass3268]

Tony Evers is in:

[Gass3268]

Best thing about Evers is even if he loses he still gets to stay on as the State Superintendent and would have 3 years before he'd have to run again.

[Gass3268]

He's probably the best Democrats are going to get, so that's good.

That's likely Vinehout.

I like them both, and since I'm not in Wisconsin I don't need to choose. Evers does have a track record of statewide landslides though, most recently his 40% romp a few months ago. Voters know him and have voted for him before. He's inoffensive and has a winnig coalition.

It's landslides in nonpartisan races (no party label) that take place in the spring. A positive for Evers, but not a be all end all.

[Gass3268]

Marist did terribly in the Midwest in 2016, and Marquette showed much better numbers for Walker. He definitely isn't "finished", lol.

Even if you add 5 points for potential hidden Republicans, its still terrible. Also the Marquette poll was before the $3,000,000,000 Foxconn boondoggle.

[Gass3268]

In the Marist Poll of PA, MI, and WI, Trump is furthest in negative territory in WI. That probably won't bode well for the WI GOP. Maybe 2018 will be like 2010, where WI went from a D trifecta to and R trifecta in a single election, except it goes from an R trifecta to a D trifecta.

As much as I'd like to dream, that's extreamly unlikely.

[Gass3268]

Evers declaring his campaign for Governor so it's official. Vinehout is the best choice IMO but he's not a bad one either, he's not that offensive to anyone.

She's going to run or that is unlikely?

She has an exploratory committee and I've heard there are signs for her in Madison area, I'd say she'll run but not official yet.

I think she runs too, but Wachs running raises some doubts for me. I don't know if he would run if Vinehout was considering their territory overlaps.

[Gass3268]

Some PPP polls by State Senate District:









Walker even or popular in Central Wisconsin and unpopular in Western Wisconsin. Vinehout or Wachs would be a great to exploit that unpopularity in that region.

[Gass3268]

I'm currently torn between Vinehout and Wachs.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Scott Walker 43%
Democratic Opponent 48%

Source

Evers is as close as you get to "Generic Democrat" or "Democratic Opponent."

[Gass3268]

Walkers Approval:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 49%

One of the more tricky numbers for Walker:

Do you think Scott Walker is too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough of Trump, or supports Trump about the right amount?
44% Too supportive ................................................
13% Not supportive enough ....................................
35% About the right amount .................................... 
8% Not sure ..........................................................

[Gass3268]

Tossup. It's criminal negligence if Dems don't run ads of Trump bashing Walker in rural/suburbs

Claire McCaskill would do it

[Gass3268]

What's the probability of him winning the primary if he enters?

Really low, or so I hope.

He'd probably get Bernie's endorsement.

[Gass3268]

Mahlon Mitchell, State President of The Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin, announces that he'll be running for Governor.

He was the LG candidate during the 2012 recall elections.

[Gass3268]

Mahlon Mitchell, State President of The Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin, announces that he'll be running for Governor.

He was the LG candidate during the 2012 recall elections.

I don't get why these relatively unknown politicians who clearly can't win will jump in and waste millions doing it.

Ego. They think they're too good for a state House or a state Senate seat, and they think they themselves are going to be the one who is going to beat the odds.

TBF to Mitchell, there are almost never open House or Senate seats in the Madison area.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Evers is still the favorite, but I think Mitchell has a real chance in a very large field, if only because he will clean up in Milwaukee with Moore's machine behind him. He's also got the firefighters union. I'd put him at #2 right now, just past Vinehout.

Mitchell could probably get the possibly get the pull of all the unions in Wisconsin.