Wisconsin Megathread

[Gass3268]

Rep. Glenn Grothman says that Voter ID will help Republicans win Wisconsin in November

Good to know they're admitting now that it's about voter suppression.

[Gass3268]

Rep. Glenn Grothman says that Voter ID will help Republicans win Wisconsin in November

Good to know they're admitting now that it's about voter suppression.

The PA House Speaker said the same exact thing in 2012. Fat lot of good it did them.

By preventing voter fraud, at least to them.

Please stop mistaking this for "honesty from evil Reps, LOL," as they honestly support voter ID laws without an evil ulterior motive, much like most Democrats.

Empirical evidence has proven that voter fraud doesn't exist. It's a meme created by Republicans to suppress the vote.

[Gass3268]

Breakdown of County Exec Race

Larson won Shorewood 55-45%, tied in Milwaukee and basically got blown out almost everywhere else. Not too surprising, Bernie college kids not voting and Larson not having very good relations with the Black community. Calling Lena Taylor "crazy" and asked if she "had taken her meds" along with prior actions when minority leader and getting a white Dem installed in a majority black leader by campaigning hard in the white suburban parts of the district which turned out in the primary. It's not really spoken of but the Black community has no love for him.

Looks like there was some Sanders/Abele voters too in some of the more working class suburbs. Both Sanders and Abele did really well West Allis.

[Gass3268]

Dems float some potential Walker challengers.

Only one who would make a good candidate and choice out of all the names listed is Jennifer Shilling. Better candidates out there.

I like Joe Parisi as well, but Shilling is the only other good choice they listed.

[Gass3268]

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Yeah, his appointment won't be up to reelection until Spring 2020.

[Gass3268]

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Lol

[Gass3268]

The Capital Times: 7 Democrats who might challenge Scott Walker in 2018

- Former State Senator Tim Cullen (Represented Janesville and Beloit)
- State Senator Kathleen Vinehout (Represents Eau Claire and the Northern Dirftless Area)
- Senate Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling (Represents La Crosse and the Central Driftless Area)
- Representative Dana Wachs (Represents Eau Claire)
- Dane County Executive Joe Parisi (From the Eastside of Madison)
- U.S. Representative Ron Kind (WI-03, Represents the Western part of the state)
- Exact Sciences CEO Kevin Conroy (From Madison)

As much as I love Parisi, I personally would prefer either Vinehout or Shilling. Democrats need to win the Western part of the state in order to win statewide and they would hopefully be able to carry it.

[Gass3268]

The Capital Times: 7 Democrats who might challenge Scott Walker in 2018

- Former State Senator Tim Cullen (Represented Janesville and Beloit)
- State Senator Kathleen Vinehout (Represents Eau Claire and the Northern Dirftless Area)
- Senate Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling (Represents La Crosse and the Central Driftless Area)
- Representative Dana Wachs (Represents Eau Claire)
- Dane County Executive Joe Parisi (From the Eastside of Madison)
- U.S. Representative Ron Kind (WI-03, Represents the Western part of the state)
- Exact Sciences CEO Kevin Conroy (From Madison)

As much as I love Parisi, I personally would prefer either Vinehout or Shilling. Democrats need to win the Western part of the state in order to win statewide and they would hopefully be able to carry it.

He's going to be reelected, right?

If Clinton wins I'd put it at 50-50. His approval numbers are the lowest they've been for his entire tenure as Governor, so he'd have to work on bringing that up. I don't think is Presidential campaign or education cuts will be as easy to erase with the common voter as the labor issues were.

If Trump wins I think it is almost an automatic that he would lose.

[Gass3268]

Some statewide tidbits from the new Marquette poll:

Should marijuana be legalized and regulated like alcohol? (Prior poll with a similar question was September 2014)

Yes 59% (+13)
No 39% (-12)

Scott Walker's approval rating:

38% approve (-1)
58% disapprove (+1)

Walker's approvals have yet to rebound since his presidential run.

Paul Ryan's favorability rating:

48% favorable (-1)
33% unfavorable (+1)

President Obama's approval rating:

51% approval (+/-0)
45% disapproval (+2)

[Gass3268]

Some statewide tidbits from the new Marquette poll:

Should marijuana be legalized and regulated like alcohol? (Prior poll with a similar question was September 2014)

Yes 59% (+13)
No 39% (-12)

Scott Walker's approval rating:

38% approve (-1)
58% disapprove (+1)

Walker's approvals have yet to rebound since his presidential run.

Paul Ryan's favorability rating:

48% favorable (-1)
33% unfavorable (+1)

President Obama's approval rating:

51% approval (+/-0)
45% disapproval (+2)

I think it is increasingly likely walker doesn't run again. Good rec marijuana numbers, a advisory referendum on it would be fun.

The fact the state doesn't even have medical is ridiculous.

[Gass3268]

Some statewide tidbits from the new Marquette poll:

Should marijuana be legalized and regulated like alcohol? (Prior poll with a similar question was September 2014)

Yes 59% (+13)
No 39% (-12)

Scott Walker's approval rating:

38% approve (-1)
58% disapprove (+1)

Walker's approvals have yet to rebound since his presidential run.

Paul Ryan's favorability rating:

48% favorable (-1)
33% unfavorable (+1)

President Obama's approval rating:

51% approval (+/-0)
45% disapproval (+2)

I think it is increasingly likely walker doesn't run again. Good rec marijuana numbers, a advisory referendum on it would be fun.

2018 with Hillary as President in the midterms where Dem turnout will be way down. If he runs it's likely hard for him to lose.

I generally agree with this, but I think he would need to get is approvals back up to the mid-high 40's.

[Gass3268]

Tommy Thompson taking a shot at Scott Walker:

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There has been some public bad blood recently between the two as Thompson has not been of Walker's cuts/changes to the UW system.

[Gass3268]

This little sh*t will likely be reelected (assuming Clinto wins)

Probably, but his approval ratings are in the toilet right now and I can't imagine the John Doe leaks are going to help.

[Gass3268]

This race will line up with the Senate race. There won't be many Walker/Baldwin voters.

Absolutely. There is a 98% chance the same party wins both.

The GOP bench is so short I'm not quite sure about that. Duffy could beat Baldwin as Cieslewicz could beat Walker. Besides that, there's Paul Jadin, a handful of unambitious congressmen, Treasurer Matt Adamczyk, Attorney General Brad Schimel, Robin Vos, and Mary Lazich. The latter two are little known Assembly GOP leaders, while Schimel and Adamczyk only got elected in 2014.

The Democrats have Ron Kind, Peter Barca, Chris Larson, Tom Barett, Mark Pocan, Joe Parisi, Kathleen Falk, Tom Nelson, Chris Abele, and Jonathan Brostoff. Their bench is far, far deeper.

Kind and Barca are pretty Milquetoast as is Barrett who likely won't run again. No idea why you bring up Cieslewicz, he's basically a nobody now.

Schilling is the best bet in my opinion to take out Walker, Vinehout would also be a good choice. Other good choices are Abele and Nelson but I doubt either could win a nomination being socially liberal and somewhat fiscally conservative.

As for replacing Walker there's really no one spectacular. Vos probably wants to keep being Herr Vos, dictator of the assembly. Would be a crowded field.

I agree on Schilling and Vinehout. Both would be acceptable to the liberal base (unlike Kind or Abele), yet they also wouldn't be offensive to middle of the road voters. Also they both come from a region of the state that Democrats have to win in order to win statewide.

[Gass3268]

If Hillary wins, we won't get rid of this fool. Bad!

We probably still won't. I just want to close my eyes.

I don't know, I think his Presidential campaign and the education cuts might have resulted in some permanent damage. We'll have to see what the Republicans push here over the next 2 years.

[Gass3268]

Shilling not running for Governor in 2018.

http://m.lacrossetribune.com/news/local/sen-jennifer-shilling-rules-out-run-for-governor-in/article_a92b4891-2392-58b7-a5e9-1ac15ff8cbe3.html

Not surprising after she barely won re-election, but I think she was the best chance to defeat Walker. Unless something changes in 2 years I don't think Walker can lose.

It will all depend on the national environment, especially with his approvals sitting in the low 40's.

[Gass3268]

If Walker runs for reelection, I think he stands a worse chance of winning than a generic R (like Duffy or Gallagher). Of course, the Dem bench is thinner... and they cannot nominate someone from Milwaukee or Madison. Vinehout seems to be the best choice, IMHO, unless God is real and Aaron Rodgers runs.

Baldwin, ironically, is probably a lot safer because of Trump. I assume Duffy, Grothman or Clarke will be the GOP nominee for Senate.

Duffy would have a shot, Grothman or Clarke would get slaughtered.

[Gass3268]

Is there any chances for Russ Feingold to change track, if he is energetic enough to go through the trauma of two consecutive defeats of his senate seat?

Zero

Possible future Secretary of State in the next Democratic administration would be a good place for him.

[Gass3268]

So.... any word from Feingold about a comeback? I'm not asking how well/poorly he'd do, I just want to know if he's at all interested

Nah, maybe in a future Democratic administration, but that's it.

[Gass3268]

Walker throwing out red meat with more 'welfare reform' proposals, last year it was drug testing and now  new work requirements. Expect him to throw out more wedge issues as 2018 nears.

He also wants to return education funding back to what it was before the last budget, the one statewide issue that has legitimatly hurt him.

[Gass3268]

Walker moving hard to the center by proposing $649 million more in school funding in the state's budget.


This is a big departure from the last budget that cut public school funding, which along with his campaign for President was one of the key causes for his approval rating drop.

[Gass3268]

Court order says that legislature/gov must redraw legislative districts before 2018 election.  State plans to appeal to SCOTUS.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/judges-to-state-redraw-legislative-districts-before-election/article_bff10235-7420-57f0-a185-c0f8939ca9b4.html

Great news! We can gerrymander much better districts given that the unions have been destroyed and the Wisconsin Democrat party is a rump party in the state. Look how badly that has been Feingold got thrashed.

Um, this ruling would make political gerrymandering illegal.

[Gass3268]

WISCTV News 3 ‏@WISCTV_News3  2m
2 minutes ago
 
 
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#BREAKING Republican Rep. Sean Duffy says he will not run for U.S. Senate against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2018.

[Gass3268]

Kind making some noise.

http://www.wpr.org/node/1063446

Not that he wouldn't be a good candidate, but his seat would basically be a free pickup for Republicans most likely.

No it wouldn't, it would be a very contested race.

[Gass3268]

Kind making some noise.

http://www.wpr.org/node/1063446

Not that he wouldn't be a good candidate, but his seat would basically be a free pickup for Republicans most likely.

No it wouldn't, it would be a very contested race.

How are you so sure? What candidates do the Democrats have to run? I'm just skeptical that a district that swung 16 points towards Trump will give a Democrat the job in an open race.

Democrats have about the same amount of State Senators and Representatives in this District as Republicans do.