Predict Margin (%) for LA-Governor

[Miles]

^ Two-thirds of Dardenne's voters would be too charitable, IMO. I'm not expecting any more than half.

[Miles]

Vitter wins 54%-46% because only Republicans can win after being behind in the polls.

[Miles]

Here we geaux:

Edwards: 51.5%
Vitter: 48.5%

Nungesser: 56.4%
Holden: 43.6%

Elvis: 50.3%
Landry: 49.7%

[Miles]

I suppose we can call this the Kentucky effect? A vast overreaction based on the wrongness of poll for one race greatly disillusions people to think the same will happen in another, even when Edwards was above 50% in the vast majority of them. This is amazing.

According to Charles Franklin (the Marquette guy) the polling averages slightly underestimated Edwards.