National swing of states 2004-2012

[Miles]

County swing map:



Trend:

[Miles]

What's the difference between the two county maps? What's the second one showing?

^ Trend is the county swing compared to the national swing.

E.g, if a county swung 5% to Obama it would trending 2% R.

[Miles]

4. The NC mountains (outside of Asheville) look overdue for a hard right shift.  There were hints of this in the Tillis win.  If it happens, it would be enough to take NC back off the map for a while.

The NC mountains contain a negligible number of voters. As long as urban areas continue to trend Democratic, North Carolina will remain a swing state.

This. Many mountain/piedmont counties are 1) already 65%+ R, so not much room to swing right and 2) growing slower than the rest of the state.

[Miles]

^ I wouldn't have thought so by looking at the county map, but IA as a whole is actually trending D (very slightly). The rural GOP areas are losing influence but I wonder how the suburbanization will compensate for that, going forward.

[Miles]

Where would you say the Democrats' future lies?

Generally speaking, a coastal coalition seems most feasible. With the exception of SC, they should aim to win every state that borders the Atlantic ocean, from ME to FL.

[Miles]

Where would you say the Democrats' future lies?

Generally speaking, a coastal coalition seems most feasible. With the exception of SC, they should aim to win every state that borders the Atlantic ocean, from ME to FL.

Plus the inner west states (New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada).

Yes. I forgot to say they already have the west coast, with those three being almost an extension of that.