NYT: If Landrieu has a path to victory, it's incredibly narrow

[Miles]

The things I've been saying here, she needs:

1) 30% of the white vote.
2) Get blacks to make up at least 28-29% of the electorate.

She can lose Jefferson Parish this time, but only by 6-7 points at most. Katrina helped her carry it by 6 in 2008. While it won't be as big an issue this year, people there still remember her work on the recovery effort.

Generally, the parishes were she had the steepest drops in white support are losing population or casting less votes relative to the rest of the state.