The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[Miles]

Taylor is beating Palazzo by 3. I will eat a bag, this is such a surprise.

53% is in but Taylor is running out of Gulf counties. Hopefully he at least holds Palazzo to a runoff though.

[Miles]

AP gives DeMarco a runoff spot for AL-06. Beason leads for 2nd place (with 18%), ATM.

[Miles]

First IA votes have Ernst at 56%.

[Miles]

Perry County is the only county still all out in MS04. Counties next to it backed Palazzo. Worries me a bit.

[Miles]

54% for AL-06 and still a crapshoot for 2nd place.

Palmer- 19%
Beason- 17%
Mathis- 16%

[Miles]

Yep, its up to Rankin county at this point...

[Miles]

Looks like Palazzo is edging up again. Could he avoid a runoff? Still 1/4 of the votes left.

Thats what I'm worried about. 2/3 or more of the Gulf counties are in already.

[Miles]

72% and Cochram inches down to 50.2%.

Ernst at 53% with 11%. Lookin to be bigger blowout than I thought.

[Miles]

83% in for AL-06 and Palmer leading for the runoff spot with 19%.

[Miles]

F***ing Jones County...

Yep. It went 64-29 for Palazzo, too

[Miles]

what the hell is happening in Jones County?

McDaniels a whisker away from outright majority?

He won it 85-14.

[Miles]

89% for MS-04.

'Banking on 13 precincts between Jackson and Harrison counties for Taylor.

[Miles]

95% in for AL-06 and Palmer leads with 20% for 2nd place.

[Miles]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Not saying Childers will win, but the "Mississippi is inelastic" meme only applies to presidential elections. Remember that as late as 2008 3 of Mississippi's 4 districts sent Democrats to the House.

Musgrove only ran 2 points ahead of Obama in 2008.  I'm not holding my breath for a Childers win.

Yeah, but OTOH, Wicker is no McDaniel.

[Miles]

Excellent news! Looks like Palmer will make it to the run-off. Now I have someone to root for!

Yeah, Beason, Mathis and Brooke are all at 14-15%. Palmer probably has this with only 10 precincts left.

[Miles]

Yep, AP gives Palmer the check.

[Miles]

How has Taylor done in Lamar so far tonight? It's the only county with outstanding precincts in his district and his only shot at making a runoff.

Bad. Losing 64/30

[Miles]

MS-04 called. Palazzo

Good effort by Taylor, though.

[Miles]

AOS project McDaniel 49.78%, Cochran 48.61%.

[Miles]

MS-04. Taylor = red, Palazzo = blue.

If Taylor won Jackson County outright, he'd likely be in a runoff.



Apparently, AP may not call this race tonight. Some Twitter posters said otherwise though.

[Miles]

Does anyone have much insight into how the rest of the Rankin County vote will go? That looks like by far the biggest piece left out there.

Thats the question. On RRH, they say it will likely end up close, and it depends where the precincts left are located (near Jackson = good for Cochran).

[Miles]

Murphy at 37% for IA-01 (R). Looks like an outright win.

[Miles]

CA-07: Almost 50% and Ose leads Birman 26-15.

[Miles]

CD4 is cancelling out 2 and 3.



These aren't the exact CDs, but I "rounded" to the nearest whole county. Hinds and Madison are actually split; I gave all of Hinds to 2 and Madison to 3.

[Miles]

CD4 is cancelling out 2 and 3.



These aren't the exact CDs, but I "rounded" to the nearest whole county. Hinds and Madison are actually split; I gave all of Hinds to 2 and Madison to 3.

McDaniel won that CD by a higher margin than the incumbent congressman from there. If He won a decent chunk of the Taylor vote then a former Dem may be the reason the Tea Party picks up a Senate seat haha.

It's interesting that McDaniel only won 1 out of 4 congressinoal districts in Mississippi.

Is CD-4 the most conservative district, or is it being swayed because McDaniel is from there? I'm not exactly familiar with the districts down there.

CD4 cast the most votes:

CD1: 21.9%
CD2: 16.6%
CD3: 26.8%
CD4: 34.7%