NC-PPP: McCrory still popular, Assembly not

[Miles]

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Its been in this ballpark for the past few months.

McCrory is really buoyed by his approval in the 704/980 area code region (Charlotte), which is 58/34. His approval in 336, consisting of the Triad, central Piedmont and northwest, is even higher at 57/29, though thats pretty Republican turf anyway. He's actually on slightly negative territory with those in the Raleigh area, 41/44.

The Assembly Republicans are at 34/53, which is why Tillis would fare poorly against Hagan.

The Democrats lead 45/41 on the generic ballot, but obviously thats not nearly enough to take back either chamber.

Its also nice to see that the Republicans' voter suppression efforts aren't popular. They've gone after early voting, though a strong majority of voters think the number of days should not be reduced:

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I wish PPP had asked about the independent redistricting bill, though I'm sure it would have been popular anyway.

[Miles]

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To retake a chamber, what would be the lead?

~8 points, but it's hard to say for certain. A lot of people say they prefer one party but then vote for their incumbent of the other party.

Democrats were leading by a similar 45/43 edge going into November 2012 and still ended up with just 35% of the total Assembly seats.

Their lead is going to have to be at least 10-11 points before they can seriously contest either chamber. Thats how brutal the maps are.

[Miles]

And in ten years, always 10-11 points or republican districts will become more democratic?

No, but for the next few cycles, that should hold. Some of the suburban will start to crack after, especially in the House.

For example, my state Rep. is a conservative Republican freshman. He was elected 51/49 last fall and almost every precinct in his district is trending D.

[Miles]

Nate Silver ranks McCrory as one of the most conservative Governors in the country, even more so than his role model, Bobby Jindal:

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[Miles]

I'm not quite sure Bob McDonnell is more conservative than Rick Perry. What is his scale?

Here is the original article from 538.

[Miles]

I'm curious, what's the appeal of McCrory that makes him more popular than most NC Republicans? I don't know of him too well.

He was mayor of Charlotte for 14 years. Most just came to know his as 'Mayor Pat.' He actually was a very good mayor; he presided over huge economic and population growth and was an strong advocate for mass transit.

He racked up huge margins in the Greater Charlotte area in both his Gubernatorial runs; Perdue was only able to offset in 2008 because she overperformed along the eastern coast.

My family lives in south Charlotte...my precinct voted 60/38 for Romney but 77/22 for McCrory.