Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

How much more Republican should we expect the legislature to become after 2015?

I haven't looked at the landscape of the House in detail yet, but here are a few Senate races that are worth watching:

Democrats should easily pickup Elbery Guillory's Senate seat (60% Obama).

Rick Ward, who just switched parties last year, represents SD17 a rural seat around the periphery of Baton Rouge; its 56%-ish Romney, but mildly D locally (57% Landrieu). His predecessor who was termed-out, Rob Marrionneaux, a Blue Dog, has reportedly been considering running again.

Democrats should likely lose Ben Never's Washington Parish-based SD12. The district is 65% Romney. Nevers is popular, but term limited. Local Ds have a decent bench, but start off at a disadvantage.

One of the biggest missed opportunities of 2011 was the swingy (54% McCain) Lake Charles seat. Freshman Ronnie Johns was unopposed.

Another race to watch is SD28, a swath of upper-Acadiana. Eric LeFleur (D) was considered vulnerable in this 64% McCain seat, but won by 16 points in 2011.

Republicans are about maxed out now in terms of the number of seats they can hold.

[Miles]

Vitter has been in the news for his latest bill:

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[Miles]

Is Guillory going to run for higher office down the road?

Yes.

[Miles]

On a slightly unrelated note, Miles, how would you explain the trends in central and northern Louisiana?  Are they much different demographically from Acadiana?

The trends as of 2012?

Generally, in north Louisiana, parishes that were Democratic (or at least more so than the state as whole) swung Demoocratic while the Republican parishes swung to Romney. I really don't think there was much more room for Obama to fall in Republican parishes, so they only swung slightly to Romney. Thus, most of the north trended D:



The big exception to this trend are most of the parishes around CD3 in Acadiana. This area has been trending R since the 1992. Even when Clinton stomped Dole by 12 points in CD7 (now CD3), the trend was against him:



As I said, energy has always been a big issue here, but social issues have become increasingly important with Catholics here. Cajuns have always been the swingy bloc in Louisiana, though, so Hillary could possibly break this trend. Still, I think its amazing how similar the 1996 and 2012 trend maps look!

There's also somewhat of a racial factor. Nationally, not just in LA, the more minority-heavy counties and districts were more likely to swing/trend to Obama. While the state is about 32% black, the average of the blue parishes (on the original map) is only 19%.

[Miles]

At Paul Dietzel's kickoff, both the LG candidates were there and I introduced myself!

Guillory:


Nungesser:


Full disclosure, when I talked to Guillory, I meant to say that I was considering a party switch, but it came out "like you, I switched parties." May have to clarify that down the line...

Both were great, but I'd like to volunteer for Nungesser.

[Miles]

Don't mess with Mitch:

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[Miles]

Which statewide office do you see Guillory running for and winning ?

Guillory is running for LG.

[Miles]

Do you pretend to be a Republican when you go to those events?

Haha; I don't say that I'm a Democrat!

I have an uncle in the legislature (a Republican), so I always introduce myself as his nephew. That helps to break the ice.

[Miles]

Anyone know what Jindal's approval ratings are ?

42/55 disapprove.

[Miles]

Hat tip to Rogue.

I knew this would come any day, but the chatter at RRH is that Vitter will get in tomorrow.

[Miles]

And there it is:

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[Miles]

Wow, that was quick.

Vitter even has his first campaign video out.

[Miles]

Down the ballot, Democrats seem to have landed a non-Some Dude SoS candidate:

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Tom Schedler is still favored, though to my knowledge, he hasn't come out with his plans for 2015.

[Miles]

LSU Professor Robby Mann has some great analysis as he looks at 6 factors shaping the outcome for Vitter.

The most salient question seems to be who he'll attack and in what order. An R-on-R race would be harder for him, especially if Mayor Landrieu stays out. Democrats could obviously chose Dardenne otherwise.  His best strategy may be to attack Dardenne first.

There's also the Jindal factor. Vitter needs to keep his distance but can't antagonize Jindal too much; it could hurt him if Jindal actively campaigns for another Republican.

I'd be shocked if Jindal gets behind Dardenne considering their very cold relationship.

[Miles]

A very good response by Landrieu. She knocks Jindal and underscores the importance of seniority:

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John Bel Edwards probably puts it best though:

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Also of note, Jeff Landry is rumored to be mulling an AG run. While not an endorsement, Landry sounded very keen on supporting Vitter.

[Miles]

Vitter opens the campaign effort in the north. Last weekend, he was at the (northern) March for Life in Shreveport and is met with local leaders in Monroe.

Electorally, it would help him to have support here.

[Miles]

Would someone care to explain the David Vitter-Diaper joke?

It went along with the prostitute scandal:

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[Miles]

A bit of irony here. There's usually a lot of Republicans, especially from Vitter's faction, complaining about the jungle primary. In an interview in the early '90s Edwin Edwards argued that it helped Republicans. Conservative Democrats could vote for Republican candidates without having to switch parties to vote in the Republican primary.

[Miles]

Planned Parenthood commissioned a poll for LA. They found Republicans leading 46-41 on the state legislative ballot.

56% identify as pro-life, 26% pro-choice. Still, overall, 59% say they don't support overturning Roe vs Wade.

[Miles]

Not bad for Louisiana, where a majority of Democrats is rather solidly pro-life... And not bad legislative numbers - Republicans control greater percentage of seats in Legislature now.

I looked over the report after I posted it and saw that they actually oversampled Baton Rouge and New Orleans. Ergo, the Republicans' lead is likely a bit wider and the overall pro-life numbers are probably higher.

[Miles]

Huh.  I always kinda thought abortion polls were bulls**t regardless of who they're commissioned by and regardless of what the numbers are.  Not a lot of people support zero restrictions on abortion, but not a lot of people seem willing to ban it outright, either.  And labels like "pro-choice" and "pro-life" are kind of loaded terms in the grand scheme of things.

Semantics is a big part of it, too:

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Thanks! But still not bad. About quarter of people - "Pro-choice", when even most of black politicians in Louisiana are either "pro-life" or, at best, "mixed".....

I'd really like to see crosstabs for this. I'm not sure if a majority of Democrats are pro-life, but many of us here are, likely more than any other state. Independents here tend to skew younger (and obviously less black). I really wouldn't be surprised if Independents were more pro-choice than Democrats.

[Miles]

I really wouldn't be surprised if Independents were more pro-choice than Democrats.

Large number of relatively old and conservative (including being "pro-life") "nominal Democrats"?)

Yeah. And as you said, blacks are generally pro-life and relatively few blacks are Independent.

[Miles]

When Louisiana Governors are sworn into office, do they still get the 19-gun salute and flyovers following the oath of office or before the ceremony?

I think so.

[Miles]

There will be several DA races to watch this fall. My uncle, Rep. Chris Hazel, is running for Rapides Parish DA; his race was highlighted.

[Miles]

Heis not going to surrender his state House seat to make race, isn't he? And will you vote for uncle or party???))))

No, he doesn't have to forfeit his House seat.

Well, I don't live in Rapides Parish, but I hope to do some campaigning for him! Chris is in the non-Jindal faction of the party and has been accused of being anti-tea party.