Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

Guillory will likely run for LA-05 if Riser punts.

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[Miles]

Ugh, could have done without this: Vitter's Fund for Louisiana's Future can raise unlimited amounts of money.

[Miles]

SMOR released the Governor part of their last poll:

Primary

Landrieu (D)- 29%
Vitter (R)- 29%
Kennedy (R)- 12%
Dardenne (R)- 11%
Edwards (D)- 6%
Angelle (R)- 4%

Runoff

Vitter (R)- 53%
Landrieu (D)- 42%

[Miles]

^ He's not. Where did you get that?

[Miles]

Vitter is donating $1 million to his super PAC from his Senate campaign warchest; the ethics are questionable.

[Miles]

^ August 22.

[Miles]

#leavingthedooropen:

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[Miles]

Good news for Dardenne:

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[Miles]

Wow, how bout that. Vitter says he won't rule out Medicare expansion if he were Governor:

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[Miles]

PPP had numbers for this race included in their last poll here. No jungle primary (which is the most important part) but here are the head-to-heads:

Vitter (R)- 52%
Edwards (D)- 30%

Dardenne (R)- 49%
Edwards (D)- 26%

Vitter (R)- 48%
Landrieu (D)- 44%

Dardenne (R)- 43%
Landrieu (D)- 43%

Dardenne (R)- 34%
Vitter (R)- 40%

Dardenne's best hope is Landrieu not running. Edwards is weak enough where Dardenne could sap enough Democratic votes to make the runoff. Its pretty clear Dardenne won't be able to compete with Vitter with Republicans; Vitter beats him 64/24 with Republicans. Obama voters have a positive opinion of Dardenne (35/19), which is about the same as Romney voters (37/22).

Landrieu's numbers against Vitter might actually be higher; 20% of Democrats support Vitter in that matchup, which seems high to me.

[Miles]

Approvals/Favorables from Rassy:

Vitter- 52/38
Jindal- 45/53
Obama- 44/53

[Miles]

^ A big part of it is people know he's running for President, so the perception is that he puts his national interests first. Then there's the continual education cuts; he started to steer funds back to higher ed this year, but for the majority of his term he got bad press over that.

[Miles]

After being "80% in" for the past year or so, Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden is now making it 100% for the LG race.

[Miles]

Good Vitter write-up. With conservatives already in he's corner, he's aiming to expand into Dardenne's voters, as well, with positions like this:

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[Miles]

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I really wouldn't be surprised if the LG race ends up being more entertaining than the Gov race.

There were rumors of Young running statewide, but now you have three credible Republicans and a (relatively) high-tier Democrat.

[Miles]

It actually sounds like Guillory got cold feet. I agree that there's an opening for someone from the north. Perhaps Sen. Gerry Long might drop down to the LG race (he was tentaively eyeing the Gov race):

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[Miles]

Gravis has the race closer than I expected:

Vitter- 46%
Landrieu- 44%

Vitter- 35%
Dardenne- 31%

[Miles]

His approval in that last poll was 37/58. I can't see him sinking much below that because he has a high floor in LA.

[Miles]

PPP's last poll, again, has Vitter in the driver's seat. He leads Dardenne, Landrieu and John Bel Edwards:

Vitter (R)- 50%
Edwards (D)- 32%

Dardenne (R)- 44%
Edwards (D)- 30%

Dardenne (R)- 43%
Landrieu (D)- 39%

Vitter (R)- 47%
Landrieu (D)- 38%

Vitter (R)- 37%
Dardenne (R)- 30%

If Jindal could run again, Edwin Edwards would beat him 47/43.

[Miles]

And the Cajuns have their candidate: Scott Angelle is running for Governor.

This was a mild surprise to me, as LG seemed more likely. Anyway, this makes the election more interesting.

Angelle has strong ties to Acadiana plus is known around the capitol area. He could emerge as a better anti-Vitter than Dardenne.

[Miles]

Angelle will be Jindal's candidate, too.

[Miles]

Angelle will be Jindal's candidate, too.

Isn't that like being endorsed by Bob Taft?

There's still a decent Jindal faction of th LAGOP. The money that Jindal/donors would bring Angelle plus a regional advantage in Acadiana could concievably get him a runoff spot.

Even a Jindal Republican would likely still start out a slight favorite over a Democrat in the runoff.

[Miles]

Dave Weigel goes down to LA to catch up with Elbert Guillory.

[Miles]

Vitter will be fundraising with Cassidy...over Popeye's:

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[Miles]

^ From what I understand, they have some sort of contract with the government so that Popeye's is one of the most common restaurants at military bases/posts. Thats why when I first spent time in the DC area (two summers ago), I was (pleasantly) surprised that they had Popeyes in NOVA but we didn't have them in Charlotte, given that its further from Louisiana.