Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

Speaking of sports, does anyone see Miami Heat being stopped anytime soon?

Can we please ban this guy?

[Miles]

Wow, no kidding. I didn't know that about Nungesser.

[Miles]

Confirming the rumors, Landry is running for AG.

[Miles]

[Miles]

Wealthy businessman and owner of The Advocate John Georges isn't shutting the door on a run. Georges ran in 2007 when the seat was open. Though he also ran as an Independent he carried Orleans Parish; he ran for mayor in 2010 as a Democrat but lost to Mitch Landrieu.

If Landrieu passes, I think Georges could be a mild upgrade from JBE. Still, Georges is a fiscally moderate, socially conservative Democrat who has the potential to hurt Dardenne more.

[Miles]

That died down quick. Georges says he's not running.

[Miles]

Perhaps working towards the end of rehabilitating his numbers, Jindal won't be doing much heavy lifting this session. The LA legislature session opened today; Jindal's agenda strays away from the more controversial items that have defined the past few sessions.

[Miles]

Buddy Caldwell gets a victory as a judge has sided with him in a high-profile levee authority case.

[Miles]

Senate Pro Temp Sharon Weston Broome stopped by my LA Gov. class today.

She's expected to be running for Baton Rouge mayor; in her words, she's "very seriously" looking at it. Should be another good race to watch and I'll probably support her.

[Miles]

Any word on Holden's political plans for the future ?

Yes.

[Miles]

We have a new poll from the firm Voter Consumer Research. They polled the primary, but no runoffs.

Landrieu- 33%
Vitter- 25%
Dardenne- 11%
Kennedy- 9%
JBE- 9%

[Miles]

I suspect any owner of The Advocate would have some trouble winning in LA.

( )

Thats actually a different website. The Advocate is the daily paper in the Baton Rouge area.

[Miles]

In what should be an easy pickup in the State Senate, Rep. Ledricka Thierry (D) is running for the seat that Guillory is vacating.

[Miles]

Economic populist, social conservative, as typical for districts in this area?

I'd say so.

[Miles]

Disgusting:

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I'm sure they'll be funding him next year though

[Miles]

Speaking of the Kochs, Maginnis also looks at the Super PAC $$$ here.

Its sad that its even seeping down to the legislative levels:

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[Miles]

I am not sure about Bobby Jindal's approval rating right now. The last I heard was that it wasn't too great. I do agree that Jindal will probably be in the Senate in 2016, especially if David Vitter is elected Louisiana Governor in 2015.

I doubt it. Jindal doesn't see himself as one of a hundred.

[Miles]

Scott Angelle is still looking at either Gov or LG.

LG would be preferable, as he'd be a nice upgrade over Guillory or Nungesser.

[Miles]

Good news for Dardenne. Jefferson Parish Sheriff Newell Normand, who was considering running for Governor himself, endorsed him.

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[Miles]

Magellan has Vitter slightly ahead in the primary.

Vitter- 28%
Dardenne- 13%
Kennedy- 9%
Landrieu- 26%
Edwards- 5%
Unsure- 20%

[Miles]

Dardenne came to LSU today!



He came to my LA Government class.

On Jindal:
By this point its very clear that Jindal and Dardenne have very little admiration for eachother. Dadenne said that Jindal governs "with an eye towards 2016" as opposed to doing whats best for the welfare of the state. He said that they rarely meet to discuss issues/policy; he said they've met "less than a handful of times" on any given issue.

One girl asked him if he thought Jindal would be a good Presidential candidate. He gave a flat-out "no."

On Blanco:
He had an interesting insight on Blanco. Dardenne rose to the Senate leadership under Foster. Once Blanco came in, she 'cleaned house' and put all Foster's legislative leaders on the unimportant committees. It annoyed Dardenne, but Blanco was ultimately the bigger loser; when her approval ratings dropped after the storm, she didn't have the experienced legislators on her side to help her.

On the ACA:
He said that he's inclined to be against the Medicaid expansion, but thats mostly because it hasn't been seriously debated in the legislature (mostly because Jindal has been so arduously against it). He said he'd be open to changing his mind after its discussed more in this session. I have a feeling he'll end up supporting it; to beat Vitter in a runoff, he's gonna have to turn out Democrats.

[Miles]

On the ACA:
He said that he's inclined to be against the Medicaid expansion, but thats mostly because it hasn't been seriously debated in the legislature (mostly because Jindal has been so arduously against it). He said he'd be open to changing his mind after its discussed more in this session. I have a feeling he'll end up supporting it; to beat Vitter in a runoff, he's gonna have to turn out Democrats.

I believe that's what all the uncool kids call "weak sauce".

He answered the question on Common Core in the same way. He seemed generally supportive of the concept though.

[Miles]

^ Neat. Yeah, people really like him. If Edwards turns out to be a weak candidate, I could see him getting a good showing in New Orleans. There's also no Acadian candidate, so that could give him an opening. He's very popular in southern LA.

[Miles]

The NYt poll shows Jindal and Obama having identical 40/54 approvals. In what has regrettably been the trend lately, Vitter is the most popular state official, at 51/35.

[Miles]

^I'm surprised its not lower given that McAllister's news has been reminding everyone of his scandal.

I mean, LA being a conservative state, he votes the way a majority of his constituents think he should on the high profile issues. When it comes to stuff like flood insurance and coastal restoration, he'll work with Landrieu in tending to those local interests.