LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Love it!

The 2015 Governor race is shaping up to be a clown car if Angelle, Dardenne and Vitter all run...

[Miles]

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This is true.

Even some of my very conservative relatives will say "well, I don't really mind Mary Landrieu."

[Miles]

A local piece about Fleming. 'Nothing RogueBeaver and I haven't already covered! XD

Its probably worth noting that Senator Bennett Johnson, who Landrieu replaced in 1996, was also from Shreveport.

[Miles]

I've heard Angelle's name over the years, but I don't really know too much about him, TBH.

In a Dardenne-Vitter-Democrat race for Gov, I don't think he'd get very far.

[Miles]

Lets get ready to rumble!!!

[Miles]

His $500K Q1 haul was probably the biggest hint that he was actually running.

Mr. Cassidy is a good man.

And Mrs. Mary is a wonderful woman

[Miles]

With this, the ball is definitely in Fleming's court.

I also haven't heard a peep out of Jeff Landry in the last few months.

[Miles]

Given that Landrieu's already at 50, Cassidy has his work cut out for him. The pincer will help but 'tis not a miracle worker.

This is what worries me though (from the SMOR survey out today):

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[Miles]

I would expect this fellow to end up in LA-06.

http://theadvocate.com/home/5158341-125/bese-president-mulls-senate-race

Ugh, his dad was much better.

This LSU forum thread from a few years ago about him is a pretty interesting read.

[Miles]

FWIW, here is Cassidy's announcement video.

Among other things, he criticizes Mary Landrieu for her support for "earmarks and federal spending for all sorts of things." Being from a vulnerable coastal state, those earmarks go to such decadently wasteful things like, ya know, disaster aid and levee enhancement. He goes on to criticize her for "supporting overseas abortions." Didn't she just pwn Ted Cruz over that?

Its clear that Cassidy will run against Obama as much as possible Mary will need to keep the debates as localized as possible.

Since this announcement, I've read all sorts of things, ranging from "Mary's campaign is on life support!" to "Cassidy is a weak and bland candidate."

[Miles]

Damn, he sounds like a real team player:

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Landry, though, owes the party nothing.

[Miles]

Senator Landrieu basically says her hands are tied on the issue of SSM:

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Folks, though I support SSM, it would be suicide for Landrieu to come out in favor of it:

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[Miles]

I've heard this guy's name mentioned as a potential candidate, but it seems like a long shot at best: Tony Perkins, the president of the Family Research Council.

A bit on his history: he served in the state Legislature from 1996 to 2004. In 2002, he ran for Senate, but was the third-ranking Republican, behind Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell and Congressman John Cooksey.

With Cassidy already in the field, I doubt he'll run, but I'll welcome anything that makes Cassidy's path rockier.

[Miles]

I really wish the Huffington Post would stop with these headlines:

[Miles]

I like how this article puts it:

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[Miles]

Looks like Landry wants to play conservative kingmaker as opposed to running himself. He launched a new Super PAC called Restore Our Republic "to support hard-right conservatives in the House of Representatives."

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[Miles]

As for the open LA-06 seat, The Advocate mentions a few names:

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Greene, who represents the southeastern corner of EBR Parish, seems like the most committed.

As for Chas Roemer, a Senatorial run could still be in the works:

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[Miles]

Excellent news!

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[Miles]

Landry seems to be getting a bit creative. He may run for Congress in Cassidy's open CD6.

Though this seems kinda crazy and Landry would be an ostensible underdog to a Baton Rouge Republican, it could feasibly work, especially given the jungle primary. There is actually a noticeable chunk of LA-06 that Landry represented in the 112 Congress.


This map, from the LA-03 runoff thread I made a while back, looks at how Landry's old CD3 was carved up:



The teal portions are now in CD6.

[Miles]

NC Yankee will like this: McHenry is running for the House again.

This means the race for CD10 will be McHenry vs. Bellamy.

[Miles]

Miles, do you think that the republicans will be united behind Bill Cassidy? I don't see another republicans who could run for senate if Jeff Landry rules out.

Sadly, yes. Any others would be non-factors.

[Miles]

And is Cassidy a strong candidate or an Akin-style?

Eh, he's who the state Republicans wanted. I don't foresee him having any Akin-esque debacles.

[Miles]

Overall, red state Democrats kicked ass this quarter with fundraising. Just so we have all five of them in one list:

Raised in Q1/CoH (in millions)

Hagan: 1.6/2.7
Landrieu: 1.2/3.5
Baucus: 1.5/4.8
Begich: .94/1.5
Pryor: 1.9/3.4

[Miles]

Downballot in NC-07, we have some relatively low numbers at this point. McIntyre is sitting on $182K after pulling in $118K in Q1. Rouzer, who launched his rebid less than a month ago, has $ 9K CoH.

Also, FWIW, Virginia Foxx has $1.5 million on hand and raised almost $100K. 'Thats quite a bit for having such a safe seat. Could she be planning for other things?

[Miles]

A tad worse than last time, IIRC, but still good.

Ellmers' fundraising wasn't horrible this quarter, right at $100K, but it still confirms my hunch that she won't run.