LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Who do you think would run if Coble retired?

Coble has already had a few younger Republicans run against him in the primary over the last few cycles. If he retires, I think there would be a clown car Republican primary.

Guilford County Commissioner Billy Yow ran against him from the far right both in 2010 and 2012; I'm pretty sure he'd run again if he seat was open.

A better candidate, IMO, would be either Senate Majority Leader Phil Berger or his son, Phil Berger Jr, both from Rockingham County. In fact, when Republicans released their original redistricting map, the Democrats accused them of redrawing NC-13 specifically for Berger Jr. Under the modified map, much of that 13th was transferred to Coble's 6th.

Other than the Bergers, most other Republican State Senators in that area only have 1 or 2 terms under their belts.

On the Democratic side, Greensboro mayor Robbie Perkins would probably be the best guy. I don't Democrats would have any other A teamers here.

[Miles]

Vitter: 52/21

...Any explanation for these numbers?

I thought Vitter was a backbencher, although he seems to be a huge joke. Does he still plan to run for Governor in 2015?

Well, he's done a lot of work on more localized issues, so that helps him.

I'd be surprised if he doesn't run in 2015.

[Miles]

How about former State Senator Tony Forrest?  He represented a state Senate district that had a pretty similar PVI to the current NC-06 before he was swept out in the 2010 wave.  Yes, he dad badly in his quixotic run against Coble, but Coble is a god in that district. 

Yeah, I forgot about Foriest.

[Miles]

How about former State Senator Tony Forrest?  He represented a state Senate district that had a pretty similar PVI to the current NC-06 before he was swept out in the 2010 wave.  Yes, he dad badly in his quixotic run against Coble, but Coble is a god in that district.  

Yeah, I forgot about Foriest.

I did a bit more research: Foriest's district was 53/46 McCain. Pretty impressive, but NC-06 was 56/43.

[Miles]

LOL.

I don't know if she should run too far with that though.

[Miles]

Civitas puts Hagan's approval at 45/27. That spread is, oddly, much better than the 34/36 that PPP had her at.

[Miles]

Mary is starting out this cycle with $2.53 million in the bank.

[Miles]

This has more to do with NC Congressional history than either of the Senate races, but I'll post it here anyway. I just read a really good diary over at DKE about the NC districts in the 1980's. Its an informative history lesson about the state's political geography and I'd recommend it to those interested in NC.

[Miles]

Senator Landrieu discussing the importance and impact of the Superbowl on the local economy.

[Miles]

Both Landrieu and Hagan are supporting Hagel.

[Miles]

NC Secretary of Labor Cherie Berry has floated the idea of a Senate bid.

Ask any NC poster here, Berry is best known for having her picture in every elevator in the state. This gives her some nice built-in name rec.

Lately, she's been criticized by Democrats when she advocated eliminating the minimum wage.

[Miles]

DefendLA, a preaux-gun group, made a short video featuring all 5 Congressional Republicans taking stances against the President's gun initiatives.

[Miles]

Congressman Howard Coble has been hospitalized after nearly fainting this morning. He's had similar episodes throughout the past few years, but he's generally come out of them well; lets hope that is the case again here.

Congressman Coble is the longest-serving House Republican in NC history; 2014 will be the 30th year since he first ran for Congress (in 1984).

Coble has said previously that he doesn't plan on serving "eternally," so this should be on open-seat watch.

[Miles]

I still think Dardenne wants to be Governor.

[Miles]

The first Republican to declare in NC is obstetrician Greg Brannon from Cary. He seems better than a Some Dude, but surely better candidates will get in. He launched his campaign in Wilmington.

Speaking of Wilmington, New Hanover County Commissioner Jonathan Barfield (D) is announcing that he will run in NC-07. Of course, no Democrat other than McIntyre can carry this seat.

[Miles]

Senator Landrieu has been in the papers recently criticizing Jindal on his refusal to go with the Obamacare Medicare expansion. She says that he's putting his Presidential ambitions ahead of actually governing effectively (gee whiz, I've never heard that before about Jindal).

I have to say though, Landrieu is brave to stick by her support for Obamacare. 

[Miles]

Also, citing the need for greater bipartisanship and cuts to agriculture, both Landrieu and Hagan voted against the sequestration bills from both parties on Friday.

The only other Democrat to break with the party was Pryor, who of course, is, electorally, in much the same category as Hagan and Landrieu.

[Miles]

Which realistic potential Republican do we have the most the fear from? Dardenne was only down three points in that last PPP poll, which was better than anyone else prformed, but I wanted to see what your thoughts on this were, Miles.

I'd say Dardenne would be the worst as of now, but for any of them, it would be just a matter of raising their name rec before they'ed be competitive.

What makes Dardenne so menacing is that:

-He wouldn't need to spend money raising name rec.
- He's won 2 competitive statewide races within the past few years.
- He has a strong base in Baton Rouge; he would overperform there more than Cassidy would. With the population loss in New Orleans, Landrieu needs to pull at least 55%-ish in EBR parish to stay competitive. Thats only a few points better than Obama, but Dardenne has some loyal supporters.

[Miles]

Asheville mayor Terry Bellamy is forgoing reelction to run against McHenry in CD10.

Bellamy will win the Asheville chunk of the district easily, but there are lot of boxes to check elsewhere in the district. Barring a major anti-incumbent wave or scandal, McHenry is still a wide favorite.

[Miles]

As I suspected, Scalise isn't running.

[Miles]

Asheville mayor Terry Bellamy is forgoing reelction to run against McHenry in CD10.

Bellamy will win the Asheville chunk of the district easily, but there are lot of boxes to check elsewhere in the district. Barring a major anti-incumbent wave or scandal, McHenry is still a wide favorite.

Its simply disgusting what Republicans did to Asheville.  There is absolutely no non-political reason or precendence for what they did.  All of Buncombe county has always been in the district with the Smokey Mountains.  

Our self-appointed resident NC geography expert, BigSkyBob, who won't say if he's ever actually been to NC, seems to disagree.

[Miles]

LOL

Walter Jones had some pretty harsh words for Dick Cheney at a Libertarian convention in Raleigh; suggesting that the former VP is likely going to Hell:

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[Miles]

Asheville mayor Terry Bellamy is forgoing reelction to run against McHenry in CD10.

Bellamy will win the Asheville chunk of the district easily, but there are lot of boxes to check elsewhere in the district. Barring a major anti-incumbent wave or scandal, McHenry is still a wide favorite.

Its simply disgusting what Republicans did to Asheville.  There is absolutely no non-political reason or precendence for what they did.  All of Buncombe county has always been in the district with the Smokey Mountains.  

Our self-appointed resident NC geography expert, BigSkyBob, who won't say if he's ever actually been to NC, seems to disagree.

You are my appointed NC political expert and I say that losing Shuler was a travesty.

[Miles]

Wow, PPP included Dan Forest in their Republican kitchen sink primary and he's apparently leading.

[Miles]

I'm actually not sure. If Tillis goes in, I can see the state partying trying to clear the field for him.

For the Congressional Republicans, I'd sort them all into three categories that would hinder them from running:

Too old -> Coble and Jones
Too partisan to win the state -> Foxx, McHenry, Ellmers
Serving 1st term in House -> Hudson, Meadows, Holding, Pittenger

I've heard of Senate Majority Leader Phil Berger running, but surely that wouldn't happen if Tillis is also in.