NV: Rasmussen: Obama clinging to 50% in Nevada

[Miles]

New Poll: Nevada President by Rasmussen on 2012-7-24

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, I: 1%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Miles]

Sounds about right to me.

'Ten bucks they'll have a poll out tomorrow with Berkley trailing by more than 10 points.

[Miles]

NV is a Dem state now. It has flipped on ex-Californian Blacks and Latinos.

Nevada will probably not gain another house seat in 2020

RCP did a good article on the projected 2020 census and reached that conclusion as well. I was surprised at that, considering the state's robust growth last decade.

[Miles]

What would you say if I told you PPP (which tilts Democratic) found Republicans leading in the 2014 Oregon Senate race? Considering Obama will probably be reelected in 2012 and that because of Europe+the drought there will be a second dip in 2013, 2014 seems likely to be a very good year for the Republicans, perhaps comparable to 2010.    

I'm inclined to agree with this. 2014 will likely be a net negative for the Ds, but I doubt it will match 2010.

[Miles]

What would you say if I told you PPP (which tilts Democratic) found Republicans leading in the 2014 Oregon Senate race? Considering Obama will probably be reelected in 2012 and that because of Europe+the drought there will be a second dip in 2013, 2014 seems likely to be a very good year for the Republicans, perhaps comparable to 2010.    

I'm inclined to agree with this. 2014 will likely be a net negative for the Ds, but I doubt it will match 2010.

In the House it certainly won't, but in the Senate it can far outstrip it. The only real opportunities Democrats have are Maine (if Collins retires) and Kentucky, but both are doubtful. Republicans are probably favored in Alaska (Begich barely won in 2008 against an opponent believed to be corrupt), Montana (everyone hates Baucus nowadays), South Dakota (popular ex-Governor Mike Rounds is believed to be running, he'll have a Hoeven effect if he does), Oregon (U.S. Rep. Greg Walden already leads Merkley, who is for some reason stuck in the low 40s in PPP polling), and Louisiana (Landrieu is talented but LA is becoming redder by the day, and Republicans have a strong bench). That's five pickups right there. Republicans will also certainly compete in West Virginia (Rockefeller is set to retire; if Capito runs, Democrats are screwed), Iowa (polling shows Harkin leading but under 50), Colorado (Jane Norton is apparently planning to run again; polling shows her down ten points, but Udall is below 50), North Carolina (Tillis is running; PPP shows him behind, but Hagan is, again, under 50), Arkansas (Pryor is popular, but this state is going the wrong way fast) and New Hampshire (Shaheen has been fundraising very badly and the Republican bench in NH is deep). That's six more. And I haven't even mentioned things like VA and NJ and MA and IL that depend on candidates.

Even if Romney wins and the economy dips in 2013, Republicans will probably still pick up Senate seats in 2014 because the map is just so good for them.

On the same token, I can see Democrats regaining the Senate in 2016. It'll be a Presidential year, which will hurt mediocre Republicans, like Blunt and Burr, who were buoyed by the 2010 wave.

I'll do a 2014 analysis at some point soon, but yes, there are plenty of GOP opportunities.

However, I can speak for LA...Landrieu started raising money last year and she's at 50% approval or better in all the polls I've seen thus far. Its rumored that Cassidy will take the plunge against her. She's best with local issues (like securing funds for hurricane/BP restoration). At this point, I'd say its a tossup at worst for her.