WI (PPP): Hovde leads Thompson AND Baldwin

[Miles]

I'm having trouble finding the party ID samples on this.

The general election stuff is near the middle of the full report; I passed it up at first.

Its 30D 32R 38I.

2008 was 39D 33R 29I.

[Miles]

I'm having trouble finding the party ID samples on this.

The general election stuff is near the middle of the full report; I passed it up at first.

Its 30D 32R 38I.

2008 was 39D 33R 29I.

Not bad at all.

Seems like they should have traded out the Ds for the Is in terms of share of the sample.

Even in 2004, Ds were 32%.

[Miles]

R+2 (32/34/34) is the electorate that PPP had when they put out their junk poll saying that Scott Walker was only leading by 3 points.

D+2 (33/31/36) is the electorate that PPP had when they put out their absolutely laughable junk poll saying that Tom Barrett was leading by 3 points this February.

Ah, but this is a standard general election and not a recall, and will thus have much better Dem turnout.

Unfortunately for you the general election will also have much better Republican turnout.

Not by terribly much. 35% of the recall electorate were Republicans, and Obama was still winning the exit polls. Unfortunately for you, I don't see how you can realistically hope for much better turnout than that.

[Miles]

R+2 (32/34/34) is the electorate that PPP had when they put out their junk poll saying that Scott Walker was only leading by 3 points.

D+2 (33/31/36) is the electorate that PPP had when they put out their absolutely laughable junk poll saying that Tom Barrett was leading by 3 points this February.

Ah, but this is a standard general election and not a recall, and will thus have much better Dem turnout.

Unfortunately for you the general election will also have much better Republican turnout.

Not by terribly much. 35% of the recall electorate were Republicans, and Obama was still winning the exit polls. Unfortunately for you, I don't see how you can realistically hope for much better turnout than that.

I am not terribly worried about exit polls that initially showed a 50/50 race when reality turned out to be vastly different.

The reports coming out of the live thread of the Wisconsin recall stated that turnout in Milwaukee and Madison was 'enormous', 'unprecedented', 'approaching 2008 levels', '119%' to quote some liberal posters. Guess what? You still lost.

The GOP has plenty of turnout and probably more than the Democrats. Mr. Hovde merely needs to win the hearts and minds of independent voters by being a man like Scott Walker.

Overall, turnout in the recall was 87% of the Presidential election; that sounds like it was "approaching 2008 levels to me," considering that only 72% of that electorate turned out in 2010.

Yes, if every Republican running for office tries reallly hard, they can all be great saintly people like Scott Walker.