North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Thanks!

[Miles]

Well, I'm still proud of Congressman Kissell.

[Miles]

McIntyre is claiming victory with a 507-vote lead. A recount in CD7 seems imminent.

[Miles]

Miles:

I am shocked that the Republican only won the 9th district by 6% (about 23,000 votes). Looking at this result and the fact that they almost rejected the ban on same-sex marriage in the 9th, is it possible given curernt trends that this seat could become competative? 

One of the things in NC that I was surprised about was that Roberts did better than Kissell! I guess that speaks to the trends of their districts.

I think a few things accounted for that. First, Roberts has been on the County Commission for 8 years, so she was much better known that the previous Dems that have run in CD9. Also, Pittenger doesn't have the personal popularity that Myrick had throughout the district (she actually endorsed his opponent in the runoff). 

Could we conceivably pick this seat up sometime during the decade? Yes. What worries me is Pittenger's personal wealth; he plunked down at least $2 million of his own just to get the nomination. If we were to win this district, the Democrat would need to overcome a financial disadvantage.

[Miles]

Assuming Rep. Mike McIntyre survives the recount process, he looks to be the lone white Democratic survivor in a state that has gone Republican..  

The question is, will he want to run for another term in 2014 against another strong Republican challenger?  Or will he rather retire, letting his seat go GOP as well? 

I have a guy feeling that McIntyre won't retire next cycle. Rouzer could run again, but he might bd viewed as damaged goods. Ditto with Pantano; if he ran in 2014, that would be his third run for Congress.

There are a few others from the Assembly who could run in 2014:

- Sen. Thom Goolsby (New Hanover)
- Sen. Bill Rabon (Brunswick, Pender, Bladen)
- Rep. Rick Catlin (New Hanover)

[Miles]

I, for one, am glad that McIntrye might win. I liked Pantano way more the Rouzer. Don't care what anyone says, Pantano is a hero.

There is a reason I voted against Pantano, in spite of tremendous issues with Rouzer. And I am glad I did that because I don't think Pantano would have come that close.

I also didn't like the idea of being represented by someone way down in Wilmington, versus someone from right down the road (WE SHOULDN'T BE IN THIS DAMN DISTRICT )

The first Republican draft of the 7th made much more sense from a CoI perspective.

CD7 would have extended to Onslow and Carteret Counties and kept New Hanover intact while CD2 would still be centered around Johnston.

[Miles]

McIntyre is holding onto a 420 vote lead in CD7. After the official canvas on Friday, a winner will be declared. The loser can request a recount though.

The other major race that remains in the air is the Lieutenant Governor's race. Dan Forest, the stepson of Sue Myrick, is standing at a 10,300 vote lead (out of 4.3 million cast) over Linda Coleman, who was the Director of State Employment under Perdue. There were about 50,000 provisional ballots cast statewide that are being counted.

Personally, I'd really like to see Coleman win this; she's run a great campaign and she has the same last name as me, which would be neat .

If Forest wins, it will probably be because of the residual good will towards his mother in the Charlotte area coupled with McCrory's coattails there; Forest held Coleman to under 60% (59.9%) in Mecklenburg compared to Obama's 60.7%.

[Miles]

Up to a 483 vote margin for McIntyre.

[Miles]

Well folks, after all 12 CD7 counties were canvassed, McInytre has declared victory. His lead grew to 655 votes, though Rouzer can still request a recount.

In the LG race, Coleman picked up a few thousand votes; she's now up to 49.92% and trailing by about 6,300 votes (down from 10,300). This entitles her to request a recount. I really wish a Libertarian had run this race...

[Miles]

CDs 9 and 11.



Roberts won the Mecklenburg part 50-47 but lost 2:1 in Union and Iredell. She did much better than I was expecting. Maybe in 2016...

Rogers did the best relative to Obama in the counties near the western tip of the 11th district. Still Meadows won 57.4%-42.6%.

I still think Shuler could have held it.

[Miles]

Here's the NC Congressional vote by county. CD splits in counties are the gray lines.



And here's the data. For those not familiar with the DRA scheme, the key is above the chart. Its pretty straightforward.

[Miles]

Its also probably worth saying that Rouzer only won Johnston 60-40 compared to Romney's 63-36.

If Rouzer match Romney, he would have win the district 50.8-49.2.

[Miles]

Linda Coleman concedes.

She tightened the gap over the weekend, but her deficit still stood at about 6500 votes (.14%).

Well folks, 'ya can't win 'em all. I do respect her for conceding instead of dragging this out though.

[Miles]

Yep, if Coleman matched Obama in Mecklenburg, she would have gotten 50.10% statewide.

[Miles]

Yep, model for 2014.

Get someone who can outperform in either Mecklenburg or Wake County.

Or maybe even a little bit of both for good measure.

As much as I love southern Charlotte, its stubborn Republican tendencies in downballot races annoys me.

Anywho, NC still hasn't allocated absentee/early votes by precinct, so until then, I'm more or less relegated to making statewide maps..

[Miles]

Yeah, I'm sure I'll be turning out tons of maps.

The only county that seems to have already done it is New Hanover.

I looked at the NC-07 portion of it. McIntyre (left) won 51-49, even with the most Democratic precincts going to CD3. Romney carried the same precincts 59.1-39.5.

[Miles]

Well, CD3 dropped from 61% McCain to 56% in redistricting and Perdue would have carried it with 54%. Still, even she had special regional advantages. If Jones retires, the best candidate I could think of for Democrats would be State Sen. Stan White; he represents the northern counties in the district and was just reelected in a competitive race. Still, the Democratic bench there is considerably thinner than it once was.

[Miles]

Well, CD3 dropped from 61% McCain to 56% in redistricting and Perdue would have carried it with 54%. Still, even she had special regional advantages. If Jones retires the best candidate I could think of for Democrats would be State Sen. Stan White; he represents the northern counties in the district and was just reelected in a competitive race. Still, the Democratic bench there is considerably thinner than it once was.

What if Jones himself switched?  I would think he'd be pretty safe here as a Dem. After all, he had been one for years. 

I think he would have to draw a pretty strong Republican primary challenger for that to happen. But yes, he has a massive personal vote and would probably still be safe.

[Miles]

Rouzer has until noon to request a recount.

As the article points out, recounts in the past have not changed the results in NC; that was likely a factor in Coleman's concession yesterday.

[Miles]

Rouzer is calling for a recount citing "irregularities" in Bladen County.

[Miles]

Speaking of recounts, NC only has one other than I'm aware of. In Senate district 1, which consists of 8 counties along the northern coast, incumbent Stan White (D) was leading Bill Cook (R) in the unofficial tallies, but after the counties were canvassed, Cook jumped ahead by 32 votes.

This was more or less an open-seat race; White was appointed at the beginning of the previous session. His predecessor, the Senate Pro Tempore Marc Basnight (D), who had represented the district since 1984, stepped down for medical reasons.

Here's what the current result looks like:



Romney won the district 55.5/43.1. However, on the state level, this is only a slighly R-leaning seat; for instance, in the near-50/50 Lt. Gov contest, Forest beat Coleman there by a narrower 52.4/47.6.

[Miles]

Just going by the whole county results and some estimates for the partial counties, I'm putting out a preliminary guess that CD7 was 58.5/40.3 Romney, up from 57.6/41.6 in 2008.

When it does, can I get a precinct map of Mecklenburg between Obama and Romney?


I was surprised that Romney didn't get back into the low 40's. I was anticipating there being a Palin effect wearing off similar to what happened in certain tracks in upscale precincts in places like Orange county, etc.

Hasn't the minority population of Charlotte swelled in the last 4 years?

Yes. As of 2000, the nonwhile population was about 39%. Now its up to 49%.

[Miles]

Rowan, Union and Davidson seem to have early votes accounted for by precinct too. With that, I took a stab at calculating CD8. I got 57.2/41.5 Romney; pretty similar to the 57.4/41.7 in 2008.

The counties along the SC border swung to Obama while the ones in central NC swung to Romney, so a status quo result would make sense. Though, I was expecting more of a dropoff for Obama.

[Miles]

More of the peripheral counties in CD7 have broken down early voting by precinct. I have every county in CD7 here except for Robeson, which still has a good chunk of early votes unallocated. When Robeson county is added, it will push the numbers slightly in Obama's favor, so the overall result will probably close to 58.5/40.5 Romney.

[Miles]

Every county in CD5 has early votes allocated; there are a few hundred absentee votes in Davidson County unassigned, but nothing that would change the outcome.

Romney won the district 59.0/39.5. McCain carried it 56.8/42.0.