North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Even though most people think he already is a memeber, Kissell has offiically joined the Blue Dogs.

[Miles]

Why didn't Perdue veto this crazy ass gerrymander?

Because the Governor can't veto redistricting in NC

It wasn't until 1996 that the Assembly gave the Governor's office veto power over bills; NC has had a historically weak executive branch.

However, the Democratic Assembly still kept power over the redistricting process...mainly because the legislators didn't want the Governor to veto gerrymanders like this. Of course, that kinda came back to bite them this time around...

[Miles]

Again, Kissell gets the NRA endorsement. 'Should help him in the new parts of the district.

In the 7th, McIntyre has raised over $1 million; his CoH advantage is also 4 times what Pantano and Rouzer have combined.

[Miles]

What all is included in his State Senate district?

Rouzer currently represents all of Johnston county and parts Wayne county west of Goldsboro.

After redistricting, his seat was redrawn to include most of Johnston plus Sampson and Duplin counties.

[Miles]

Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?


Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

Yes, his only base in the new 7th is Johnston county.

I'm not sure...culturally, Sampson is rural but I think Rouzer could carry it because of its proximity to his Senate district.

[Miles]

Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?


Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

Yes, his only base in the new 7th is Johnston county.

I'm not sure...culturally, Sampson is rural but I think Rouzer could carry it because of its proximity to his Senate district.

You don't think Johnston is rural?

Eh, I'd consider it more suburban/exurban....it isn't quite as rural as some other counties in the district (Columbus, Bladen, etc.).  

[Miles]

Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?
Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

Yes, his only base in the new 7th is Johnston county.

I'm not sure...culturally, Sampson is rural but I think Rouzer could carry it because of its proximity to his Senate district.

You don't think Johnston is rural?

Eh, I'd consider it more suburban/exurban....it isn't quite as rural as some other counties in the district (Columbus, Bladen, etc.).  

It has more people and a growing population. But it is a conservative county that still thinks of itself as rural, if that makes sense. This is especially the case amongst Republicans.

Yeah, that makes sense.

I guess I kinda think Johnston is to Wake what Union or Iredell are to Mecklenburg...rural conservative counties that are growing from the exurban population.

[Miles]

Did the GOP make a mistake in drawing the new 13th? On paper it looks like a clear GOP win as mccain won it 54-45 but NC polls show Obama doing well in the Raleigh area. Because it's a high population growth area I could see it trending sharply Dem (maybe romney wins it by 4-7) this year and by 2016 it becomes a genuine tossup.

No, not really. Its really a 'diet coke' version of CD9; basically, CD13 is to Raleigh what CD9 is to Charlotte. Its trending D but it still reliably R in statewide races. Even the Wake part of the district would have voted for McCain.

It also doesn't help that Paul Coble, former Raleigh mayor, will be the Republican nominee

[Miles]

Did the GOP make a mistake in drawing the new 13th? On paper it looks like a clear GOP win as mccain won it 54-45 but NC polls show Obama doing well in the Raleigh area. Because it's a high population growth area I could see it trending sharply Dem (maybe romney wins it by 4-7) this year and by 2016 it becomes a genuine tossup.

No, not really. Its really a 'diet coke' version of CD9; basically, CD13 is to Raleigh what CD9 is to Charlotte. Its trending D but it still reliably R in statewide races. Even the Wake part of the district would have voted for McCain.

It also doesn't help that Paul Coble, former Raleigh mayor, will be the Republican nominee

Are you sure? Holding seems to have been running far more ads. And there are PACs running ads bashing Coble's record and votes increase Wake County's debt.

Also keep an eye on Elmers. She pissed off some people in Harnett county last year when the Tornadoes hit. She volunteered at a center in Raleigh, instead of one in hard hit Harnett county where she lives. And one of her opponents is running ads claiming she is pro-gay marriage because she opposes amendment 1.

I've heard more about Coble, so I could be wrong about that.

I would have liked to see Etheridge run for Congress again. Ellmers would probably still be the favorite, but Etheridge could have made it something of a competitive race.

[Miles]

This is why I like Congressman Howard Coble so much. I wish him well tonight in his primary.

[Miles]

I'll have some stats on the primaries up after I get done with exams this weekend.

[Miles]

Here's something I managed to cook-up today:



Again, my hat is off to Rouzer; geographically, he was at an obvious disadvantage. He did a great job of running up his totals in Johnston county (in his worst precinct there, he got 70%).

Pantano underperformed in New Hanover; he was consistently polling the mid-50s there. Also, there are relatively few registered Republicans in the rural counties (like Columbus and Bladen) which gave Pantano less support to draw from.

[Miles]

I haven't updated this in a while!

Well, in a very frustrating development, the N.C. 8th Congressional District Black Leadership Caucus is pulling its support from Kissell. They're mad that Kissell is voting with Republicans on healthcare; I don't blame him, maybe if he can appeal of conservatives, he'll have a better shot at, 'ya know, winning.

[Miles]

Also, there are three major Congressional Runoffs next week, all on the GOP side.

The first, in my own district 9, is former State Senator Robert Pittenger running against former Mecklenburg county sheriff Jim Pendergraph. In the primary, Pittenger, who has been largely self-funding since, got 35% to Pendergraph's 25% (this was an 11-man field).

I'm endorsing Pittenger, mainly because he seems more moderate, and because Pendergaph could potentially be worse than Myrick. In my area (southern Charlotte) I'm seeing more Pendergraph signs though.

Meanwhile, in the GOP runoff in the 8th district is turning into little more than a purity contest. Richard Hudson was a staffer for Robin Hayes and his opponent, Scott Keadle, is a doctor. Hudson got endorsements from Mike Huckabee and, more recently, Paul Ryan, while the Club for Growth is backing Keadle. Keadle kinda reminds me of Rick Scott.
In the primary, the field was quite fractured; Hudson got 32% to Keadle's 22%.

Finally, I've been following the runoff in CD11 the least. From what I gather, Mark Meadows is more or less the 'establishment candidate' as he has more endorsements from state legislators while Vance Patterson is trying to appeal more to the tea party crowd. Meadows got 38% in the primary to Patterson's 24%.

[Miles]

While I was working out a few nights ago, I happened so see some parts of the 8th district GOP debate on TV. It was mostly just Republican buzzwords from either candidate.

My favorite part; both Republicans have such strong roots in the district:

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Kissell's family has lived in the 8th district for generations.

[Miles]

Kissell and McIntyre both voted to repeal the healthcare bill today. That should play well for them in their districts.

[Miles]

Rouzer's trouble in the southeastern part of NC might just send McIntyre back to Congress. That's where he routinely runs up huge margins even in GOP leaning counties at the presidential level.

I agree. Rouzer is pretty unknown there whereas McIntyre has been representing that area for 16 years.

[Miles]

What do you think will happen to McIntyre and Kissell?

Well, they're both tracking rightward in terms of their votes; neither has endorsed Obama and I hear they might not even be in Charlotte for the DNC.

I say McIntyre is a modest favorite; his biggest obstacle will be Rouzer's strength in Jonhston county. However, if he makes it past this election, I think he can make inroads there, as its sent Etheridge to Congress for years. McIntyre has a very strong track record on veterans and military issues, which helps him win over voters who normally vote Republican.

Kissell is probably a tossup; he has great blue-collar appeal which helps him in the rural areas. He's also been endorsed by the NRA each time he's run.

[Miles]

As if we also needed another pointless Democratic purity experiment. Dan Blue, the mayor of a small town in Richmond county, was chosen by the 8th district black caucus to challenge Kissell from the left as a write-in.

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Yes, he'll make a statement, for sure. His statement will be that the black caucus would rather see a Republican elected than an independent-minded Democrat. What a shame.

The worst case here would be a repeat of LA-06 in 2008.

[Miles]

What do you think will happen to McIntyre and Kissell?

Well, they're both tracking rightward in terms of their votes; neither has endorsed Obama and I hear they might not even be in Charlotte for the DNC.

I say McIntyre is a modest favorite; his biggest obstacle will be Rouzer's strength in Jonhston county. However, if he makes it past this election, I think he can make inroads there, as its sent Etheridge to Congress for years. McIntyre has a very strong track record on veterans and military issues, which helps him win over voters who normally vote Republican.

Kissell is probably a tossup; he has great blue-collar appeal which helps him in the rural areas. He's also been endorsed by the NRA each time he's run.

I dont get how Republicans were able to remove Johnston county from NC-02(which gave Ellmers her entire margin of victory in 2010) without making that district much more Democratic.

Most of Ellmers' CD is new territory.

Yep; 71% of the district is new.



Adding Moore and most of Randolph more than compensated for the loss of Johnston.

What do you think of Hayden Rogers' chances in NC-11? Is he 100% toast or is there some route for victory? His profile and fundraising aren't bad, at least from my perspective.

He was probably the best non-Shuler Democrat. Shuler could have held on, IMO. That said, Rogers does look like he's running a good campaign.

[Miles]

Hudson ran the table in the CD8 primary with 64% and sweeping all counties:

[Miles]

The CD11 primary was no contest; Meadows landslide, though Patterson took Burke and Cherokee counties.

Meadows- 76.3%
Patterson-23.7%


The 9th district was the closet of the night. Pendergraph got 51.4% in Mecklenburg but got blown away in the other counties, getting 29.7% in Iredell and 43% in Union.

Pittenger- 52.9%
Pendergraph- 47.1%

[Miles]

lol, 'read this in an article tonight:

"Keadle lost his third bid for U.S. House, running each in three different districts."

[Miles]

The quarterly fundraising numbers out yesterday are better than I expected for Team D. Kissell, who is known for his historically weak fundraising, and Hayden Rogers are both up against their freshly-determined opponents. In fact, NC-08 was one of the top 5 districts where the DCCC spent the most last cycle. I do expect that Hudson and Meadows will improve though, now that they're actually the nominees and all.

CD8

Kissell
Raised- $266K
CoH- $609K

Hudson
Raised- $254K
CoH- $174K

CD11

Rogers
Raised- $191K
CoH- $192K

Meadows
Raised- $108K
CoH- $34K

Finally, this helps to justify my Lean D rating for NC-07; Rouzer, who got the party nod more than two months ago, badly trails McIntyre. At this time last cycle, McIntyre was at a $394 CoH edge over Ilario Pantano and was actually noticeably outraised that quarter; currently, though, he leads Rouzer by about 6:1 in terms of CoH.

CD7

McIntyre
Raised- $404K
CoH- $1,076K

Rouzer
Raised- $315K
CoH- $172K

In the NC-09 primary, Pittinger made a $940K self-loan last quarter, which helped to tilt the outcome in his favor tonight. Overall, he outspent Pendergraph by more than 5:1; Pittenger spent nearly $1.5 million compared to Pendergraph's  $280K.

[Miles]

NC-7 is much more Democratic at the local level. If McIntyre can get 35% in Johnston and run up big margins in the southeast he should take it.

Yep. Even if he got 33% in Johnston (what Etheridge got in 2010) he'd need to get 55% everywhere else.