2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond

[Miles]

UGHH!!! I thought I saved the calculations for the other Iowa poll, but apparently, I didn't. The update will be pushed to tomorrow....sorry guys.

[Miles]

Just to keep everyone in suspense for a little while longer, here are the toplines and CD leaders:



Crosstabs will be out mid-day Sunday morning Monday.

[Miles]

_{Senators Udall and Warner, who are tied at the top of the field, talk with voters while Rep. Brad Miller is running as formidable campaign from the left.}

PPP- For our Democratic poll, we find that Senators Mark Udall and Mark Warner about tied at the top of the field with Congressman Brad Miller in third. An important note here is that neither Governor Cuomo nor Governor Patrick have invested much efforts in Iowa; they both seem to be eyeing the upcoming contests in Hew Hampshire and Florida instead. For now, the Democratic field in Iowa is just as fragmented as that of the GOPs, as no candidate can get even 25% support overall.

Our key finding in this poll is that Miller is establishing himself as a legitimate liberal alternative to the two frontrunners. A Miller upset would be dependent on two things: first, the Congressman is already popular with "very liberal" voters, as he gets 31% with that group; he would have to make inroads with voters who are closer to the middle of the spectrum. Next, turnout among younger voters would have to be relatively high; Miller's message of tighter Wall Street regulation and financial reform is resonating well with college students and younger, educated voters.

Warner's strength is derived from his popularity with centrist voters and older citizens. Among those voters who value job creation as their first priority, Warner is an easy favorite. Likewise, Independent voters hold him in the highest esteem. These two things should play well for his prospects in a general election.

Finally, like Governor Jindal in our GOP poll, Udall seems to be the best "all around" performer; he is at or near the top among most demographics that we surveyed for. It looks like he has the more rural 3rd and 4th districts locked down. To solidify his lead, Udall would need to focus more closely on the eastern duo of districts in these last few weeks.

[Miles]

I think, for simplicity's sake, I'll just skip right to election night in Iowa.

I'll work on the numbers/maps tonight and start tomorrow with results.

[Miles]

Yes, I saved Blanche Lincoln and Ted Strickland by a few hundred votes each.

I think I referred to Lincoln Chafee as Lincoln Davis; I think Julio pointed that out a few months ago.

[Miles]

I'll have to update tomorrow...I'm at the beach and I have very erratic WiFi; I didn't accomplish as much as I planned to today.

[Miles]

JINDAL, WARNER JUMP OUT TO EARLY LEAD IN IOWA; HUNTSMAN AND MILLER PERFORM SURPRISINGLY WELL

AP: 39% of precincts reporting:

REPUBLICANS





DEMOCRATS

[Miles]

Interesting to see how well Huntsman does in Iowa considering how well he did otl.  Looking Forward to more

This.

Miller vs. Huntsman would be the best campaign ever.

Who's Miller?  Is he a favorite of yours?

A progressive democrat congressman from NC, who will not run for reelection this year because of redistricting...

Yes; here's a bit more background on Miller:

As Julio alluded to, redistricting played a big part in starting (and ending) his Congressional career. Back in 2000, he was the NC State Senator who led the redistricting Committee. Back then, NC gained one seat in the census; he drew the new 13th district for himself. He won 5 terms in Congress and was known for his role as a strong Keynesian voice on the Financial Services Committee; he's also a blogger at the DailyKos.
 
Well, when the Republicans won a majority the NC Legislature in 2010, they controlled redistricting. They turned Miller's 13th from a 59/40 Obama district to a 54/45 McCain one. His other option was to run against Rep. Dave Price, another Democrat, in the redrawn 4th; at 72% Obama, the new 4th was drawn as a Democratic vote sink. Either way, he'd be the underdog, so he just retired. I hear Price may be retiring in a few cycles, so a Miller comeback may be in the cards.

I'm friends with him on my Facebook account (as nerdy as that sounds); we've had a few good conversations about politics.

[Miles]

65% of precincts reporting:

REPUBLICANS





DEMOCRATS

[Miles]

I'll update this later on July 4th.

For now, a shout-out to one of our newer poster, kenyanobama.

I read this post and I thought of my TL:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

For Romney? This poll is overestimating Romney support.

That's why I've been saying Romney needs to pick Gohmert as VP to energize the base. That's the real problem, not independents.

[Miles]

Its crazy, the Democratic party is often considered the party for minorities, yet half of the GOP candidates are minority race, and one is female. In comparison, the Democrats are running 6 men, only one being a minority (and probably towards the bottom of the pack!).

I thought of that too after I picked the candidates. haha

My Republicans are definitely much more diverse.

[Miles]

JINDAL HOLDS ON DESPITE GOHMERT SURGE; WARNER CLINGS TO VICTORY OVER UDALL, MILLER

100% of precincts reporting

Republicans




Democrats

[Miles]

Who would be more of a fiscal conservative, Cuomo or Warner?  Also, does anyone know Cuomo's positions on gun control?

I'm going to say Cuomo.

I don't think Cuomo has a particularly gun-friendly record.

[Miles]

Great TL! Although I was hoping for Wyden to do better even if i don't agree with him on much......

Well, he may do better in the next contests

I do take the comments from my readers into consideration when I plan out the results!

[Miles]

Update tonight.

[Miles]

Looking ahead to the next contests:

[Miles]

CUOMO, HUNTSMAN TAKE NEW HAMPSHIRE

In the New Hampshire primary tonight Governors Huntsman and Cuomo have won the contests for their respective parties.

On the Democratic side, this evolved into something of a two-way race between Cuomo and Patrick, however the Miller campaign stepped up campaigning the last few days. Warner, Wyden, Udall largely forewent this contest in favor of campaigning in upcoming states. It seems that Cuomo has Miller to thank for his victory. Just weeks ago, Cuomo and Patrick were running basically even; since then, progressive groups came in on behalf of Miller. As a result, the North Carolina Congressman likely took away a noticeable portion of Patrick's vote.

The Huntsman campaign invested heavily here, and the results tonight reflect those efforts. The real surprise for Republicans was the second-place slot; Governor Martinez slipped past Governor Jindal. Martinez was helped by the relatively large number of Independent voters who turned out tonight. Neither Senator Rubio nor Congressman Gohmert made serious efforts here.

Going forward, South Carolina could be the most competitive race yet. Southerners Jindal and Rubio are running neck-and-neck for the GOP vote; the 6 SC House Republicans, all tea party-aligned, have backed Gohmert while the Governor Nikki Haley has endorsed Jindal. For the Democrats, Patrick is banking on the state's large black electorate while Warner is touting his Virginia background.

REPUBLICANS


DEMOCRATS

[Miles]

And...?

Sorry...lol

NC mapping has been taking up most of my time

I was going to do SC and FL tonight for this.

[Miles]

Any chance you could date your timeline posts? Great TL btw. Big fan.

I dated my posts when I first started doing this, but I've slipped out of that since. But, I can start dating them again

For the primaries, this is the schedule I'm going by:

[Miles]

Looking forward to it. Especially the 2016 election. You plan on going that far?

Of course

[Miles]

GOHMERT SOARS IN SC; WARNER PULLS OUT NARROW WIN

1/25/16

REPUBLICANS



DEMOCRATS

RUBIO (BASICALLY) UNOPPOSED AT HOME IN FL; CUOMO DOMINATES D FIELD

2/2/16

REPUBLICANS



DEMOCRATS

[Miles]

And yes, its purely by coincidence that Warner and Cuomo are exactly one delegate apart!

[Miles]

Good, though I think you're slightly insulting the GOP's intelligence by putting Gohmert this well. I just don't see it as even a remote possibility.

Haha. Well, most of my Republican friends from SC are tea party supporters...I know their not necessarily representative of the entire SC Republican electorate, but that's what I see, 'ya know?

[Miles]

Tom Coburn would be a better candidate in GOP primaries than Gohmert, although his friendship to Obama can play against him.

Coburn also endorsed Manchin and is good friends with Chuck Schumer

[Miles]

HUNTSMAN ON A ROLL WITH DOUBLE-WINS; CUOMO TAKES NV, THOUGH PROGRESSIVE COUNTER WITH MILLER WIN IN ME CAUCUS