2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond

[Miles]

REPUBLICANS


DEMOCRATS


Kinda odd to see Cuomo leading despite only carrying 4 states. He did have a lot of good 2nd and 3rd place finishes, where the proportional allocation system worked in his favor. NY was also a huge cushion for him, as it was worth almost 300 delegates.

[Miles]

I wish Patrick would drop out. He's splitting the northeastern vote.

I wish Cuomo would. Patrick is the candidate I like the most with realistic chances of being nominated, as Udall has lost all the momentum he once had.

Who did you like initially?

Miller.

If I could chose the President myself, he'd surely be on my short list.

[Miles]

Sorry, I'm nearing the end of a really busy stretch here. Should be updated by mid-week.

When I'm busy, this is kinda always the first thing I triage

[Miles]

Miles, you should update this more frequently if you want us not to forget the story... Because I can't remember if Patrick dropped out. I have to check that.

I honestly couldn't even remember some of this stuff as of late! lol

Update over the weekend. 'Gonna be big!

[Miles]

Ok, just so I can start posting states, Patrick has indeed dropped out. No endorsement yet.

[Miles]

So how about some results?

Getting to that...

[Miles]

A few housekeeping notes:

- I'm experimenting with a slightly altered format. While I'm phasing out the pics of the candidates, this format will allow me to generate and post the maps/results quicker.

- I couldn't load the shapefile for MD, for some strange reason, so I substituted it with AL for this post.

- I'll go review the Senate races to see what primaries there are worth noting.


WITH WALKER HELP, JINDAL TAKES WI; UDALL INVESTS HEAVILY FOR BIG NIGHT IN WI, BUT WILL IT BE HIS LAST WIN?

CT NOT COMPETITIVE; HUNTSMAN, CUOMO WIN EASILY

DE GOP LEARNS FROM PAST MISTAKES, PICKS THE MOST ELECTABLE CANDIDATE; WARNER SQUEAKS OUT AHEAD OF CUOMO

JINDAL TAKES NEIGHBOR AL COMFORTABLY, DESPITE THREAT FROM GOHMERT; AL UNCONTESTED BY DEMS

[Miles]

GOHMERT TO REPORTEDLY DROP BID IF HE LOSES TN



Politico- According to several reports from those within the RNC, Tea Party Republican Presidential candidate Louie Gohmert will likely drop out of the race, should he lose Tennessee. It clear any path Gohmert would have to the nomination would run through the Volunteer State.

The Gohmert campaign is citing their dominating performance in West Virginia, where the Republican electorate is similar to that of TN. However, one asset Jindal has is the popular Senator Bill Haslam. Haslam is helping Jindal mobilize voters in growing suburban areas such as Rutherford County and parts of Shelby County. The House delegation is overall split in terms of support. The 6 Congressional Republicans from TN have split even Roe, Duncan and Black have backed Jindal while Fleischmann, Blackburn and Fincher have endorsed Gohmert.

On the Democratic side, Warner is expected to win in a landslide. Governor Bresdesen has endorsed Warner as have Senator Gordon and Reps. Cohen, Cooper and Stewart.

In the Connecticut and Maryland primaries, Governors Huntsman and Cuomo are expected to win their respective primaries.

Polling:

TN (PPP)

Jindal- 44%
Gohmert- 40%
Huntsman- 9%

TN (Rasmussen)

Jindal- 43%
Gohmert- 42%
Huntsman-11%

[Miles]

Alabama is not "Jindal's neighbor"...there's this thing in the way called Mississippi?

I still consider the guy who lives two doors down from me to be my "neighbor."

[Miles]

GOHMERT COMES UP SHORT IN TN, EFFECTIVELY EXITS RACE

Tonight, Republicans came one step closer to choosing a Presidential nominee. Behind in delegates, any path to the nomination for tea party firebrand Louie Gohmert would have run through Tennessee. In fact, a top Gohmert spokesman announced recently that the candidate's presence in the primary hinged on the Tennessee GOP electorate.

With 96% of precincts reporting, Governor Jindal is clinging to nearly a 5-point lead and the AP has called the race in teh Governor's favor. Governor Jon Huntsman, despite leading in overall delegates, was largely a non-factor tonight.

Gohmert's margins in rural western and middle TN helped to cancel out Jindal's support in the Nashville and Memphis areas. However, Jindal's surprisingly strong performance in the east made up the bulk of his statewide margin; Senator Bill Haslam, hailing from Knoxville, was an ardent Jindal surrogate throughout the campaign.

On the Democratic side, only Warner made campaign stops in TN; it was a forgone conclusion that the Virginia Governor would win in a landslide.

[Miles]

Looking ahead:

PA (PPP)

Jindal- 44%
Huntsman- 39%

Warner- 40%
Udall- 36%
Cuomo- 21%

NJ (Rasmussen)

Huntsman- 43%
Jindal- 42%

Cuomo- 37%
Warner- 31%
Udall- 26%

RI (PPP)

Huntsman- 51%
Jindal- 39%

Udall- 42%
Cuomo- 34%
Warner- 21%

[Miles]

So Jindal vs. Warner it is?

Also, I'm rather surprised that an Italian Catholic Northeasterner isn't ahead in RI, especially since he just carried CT so handily.

Obama won CT and Hillary won RI.

[Miles]

Some statistics to establish context:

March 2016

National Unemployment Rate- 6.2%

_{Rasmussen survey of 1000 registered voters.}

How would you describe your view of the President?
Favorable- 57%
Unfavorable- 37%
Neutral- 6%

How would you rate the President's job performance?
Approve- 49%
Disapprove- 43%
Unsure/Neutral- 8%

How would you rate the job performances of the following elected figures:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
Approve- 35%
Disapprove- 47%
Unsure- 18%

Senate Minority Leader John Thune
Approve- 38%
Disapprove- 40%
Unsure- 22%

House Speaker John Boehner
Approve- 38%
Disapprove- 52%
Unsure- 10%

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi
Approve- 39%
Disapprove- 51%
Unsure- 10%

Generally speaking, if Congressional elections were today, which party's candidate would you vote for?
Democratic- 44%
Republican- 41%
Unsure- 15%

How would you describe the state of the economy?
Getting better- 40%
Getting worse- 26%
Staying the same- 34%

How would you rate your personal financial situation?
Excellent- 18%
Good- 34%
Fair- 32%
Poor- 16%

[Miles]

Eh, sorry guys. I think I'm out of the TL business for now. It just isn't what it used to be for me for some reason. I appreciate the enthusiasm though.

Maybe I'll get back into it down the road...

[Miles]

Maybe I'll get back into it down the road...

I think it just might be that time.

[Miles]

Hopefully an update this weekend.

Polling aggregates:

PA

Jindal- 43%
Huntsman- 40%

Warner- 41%
Cuomo- 33%
Udall- 19%

NJ

Huntsman- 48%
Jindal- 39%

Cuomo- 45%
Warner- 25%
Udall- 20%

RI

Huntsman- 56%
Jindal- 34%

Cuomo- 40%
Udall- 30%
Warner- 17%

CA

Huntsman- 50%
Jindal- 39%

Cuomo- 39%
Udall- 34%
Warner- 22%

NM

Huntsman- 45%
Jindal- 40%

Udall- 51%
Cuomo- 21%
Warner- 16%

I need to do an update on the Senate, so look for that to be out soon, too.

[Miles]

Maybe I'll get back into it down the road...

I think it just might be that time.

I think it just (really) might be that time.