Which states do you see moving left or right over the next 20 years and why?

[Miles]

I'm still keeping my hopes that the South will be in Democratic hands again.

You have no idea how much I wish that were the case.

Anyway, I think TX will become swingy around 2020, possibly 2016, depending on the candidates. Last year, bonncaruso, who posts on the predictions thread, did an excellent analysis of Texas' electoral trends and demographic changes, I'll try to find it. 
The influx of northerners, hispanics and educated whites will make SC and GA more competitive within the next 20 years.

I suspect the west coast will continue to trend Democrat; as will other western states like NM, CO and AZ.

I agree with the general assessment that the GOP will take the heartland and industrial midwest while the Democratic bases will be anchored on the coasts, with the exception of IL.

[Miles]

Yeah, but make New York toss up along with New Jersey

I think NY will trend R, but it will still be reliably Democratic for the foreseeable future.

I doubt Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois are going to trend R. Wisconsin either (although I'll hold off on that after a few more elections).

MN is already trending R. Its trended R for 4 out of the last 6 Presidential elections.

[Miles]

Yeah, but make New York toss up along with New Jersey

I think NY will trend R, but it will still be reliably Democratic for the foreseeable future.

I doubt Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois are going to trend R. Wisconsin either (although I'll hold off on that after a few more elections).

MN is already trending R. Its trended R for 4 out of the last 6 Presidential elections.

Minnesota's % vote for a Democratic President in 2008 was the highest in 3 decades. If Republicans hold the state legislature in 2012 (they won both houses for the first time in decades in 2010) then I'll concede.

All the population growth in MN is around Bachmann, Kline and Paulsen's districts; the Democratic strongholds up in the Iron Range and in the urban Twin Cities aren't growing nearly as fast as the conservative suburbs. The long-term population trends there will favor the GOP.

[Miles]

I don't understand how they have 2 Democratic senators and a Republican controlled state legislature.

MT probably wouldn't have 2 Dem Senators if it had a Class III seat up last year.

Tester was a decent challenger running against a flawed incumbent and Baucus could always frame himself as an independent, western centrist Dem.

A fun fact: Baucus' seat has been in Democratic hands since 1913.