Christie beats Palin by a half point, steals the headlines

[Poundingtherock]

Christie would get crushed.  Even radical Steve Lonegan who was broke got 42% against Christie in New Jersey.  Think about that.  Christie bled 42% to a right-winger with a Republican electorate that is majority pro-abortion.

[Poundingtherock]

Well, his numbers were 73/20 among New Jersey conservatives according to Rutgers/Eagleton but Palin was 66/18 among New Jersey conservatives in a previous Rutgers/Eagleton poll back in March.  So it's not as if he's really too far ahead of her among conservatives in his home state in terms of favorability and New Jersey conservatives are more moderate than conservatives in other states.

His numbers are slightly positive because he maintains 31% favorability from New Jersey liberals.  If his standing among New Jersey liberals dips, he'll be in trouble.

[Poundingtherock]

Disagree completely.  The Republican electorate in NJ is 53% pro-abortion from the 2008 exit poll.  Not piece of data supports your unsubstantiated argument that New Jersey conservatives are not more moderate than conservatives elsewhere.  In fact, the only piece of data to support your unsubstantiated argument is Lonegan's 42% against Christie, a stunningingly poor and embarrasing result for Christie.

SurveyUSA does show him in the 30s.  Conservatives seem to accept everything from SurveyUSA as gospel except its poll on Christie.

Sorry Keystone, I don't do talking points or buy spin.

[Poundingtherock]

53% of New Jersey's Republican electorate is pro-abortion:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NJREP

As for being a hack, whoever this Hamilton guy is is the same hack who claimed PPP was right about Alaska even though they showed Murkowski at 77% favorables in a poll.

Multiple polls showed Murkowski winning by 30.  Only one poll showed otherwise and guess what, that one poll turned out to be right.  The "outlier" was correct while everyone else was wrong.

Republicans accept SurveyUSA as gospel except for its polling on Christie.

[Poundingtherock]

Thanks for playing True "Republican" but that's an "exit poll."

An "exit poll" is a poll of actualy voters.  So it is more accurate than pre-election polls.

[Poundingtherock]

Even the FDU poll that you cite shows an extremely liberal GOP electorate.

Only 60% NJ Republicans themselves as pro-life?  It's much higher nationwide.  And keep in mind the exit poll asked about whether they believe abortion should be always, mostly legal or illegal, so it's a different question.

51% support stem cell research and only 60% supported the war in Iraq?  Those are the numbers of a very liberal Republican electorate.  But thanks for playing.

[Poundingtherock]

Vick,

How's the injury?  Unfortunately, I don't do talking points, so I cannot go along with your talking points.  You might as well write that Lisa Murkowski is very popular in Alaska.

I am having my cake and eating it too.  New Jersy conservatives are more liberal than conservatives in any other state and yet, they almost like Palin just as much as they like Christie.  I am arguing both assertions are true.  rutgers-eagleton found their net favorables to be similar among the very pro-abortion conservative electorate of New Jersey.

Your argument that the New Jersey electorate has a very large conservative contingent may be true....but then again, every Republican electore has a very large conservative contingent.  The point is that New Jersey GOP likely has one of the smallest "very large conservative contingents" in the country.  What that means is that a repeat of the Lonegan-Christie matchup in 35 of the 50 states would have been a victory for Lonegan.  Look at how badly Rossi, hack Kirk, and Ehrlich won their matchups and compare it to Christie.  None of those electorates are as liberal as New Jersey's GOP electorate with the exception of possibly Maryland.

[Poundingtherock]

A tree stump would have defeated Jon Corzine, who was an absolutely dreadful candidate.

[Poundingtherock]

Well Hamilton, I'm trying to figure out which is dumber:

1) The idea that an exit poll is equivalent to a pre-election poll.

2) The idea that the New Jersey Republican electorate is very conservative despite all the polling cited in this thread, including the FDU poll cited by "True Republican" that he hilariously thought would prove his point about the NJ electorate being very conservative.