Obama poll numbers in Fresno, CA and Louisville, KY

[Poundingtherock]

Obama's favorable/unfavorable rating in Louisville is 42/41.  Sarah Palin's favorable/unfavorable rating in Louisville is 36/35.

Obama won 56% of the vote in the county where Louisville, Kentucky is located.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fb3d4e10-81bc-485d-9be1-c5e60623d362

Obama's favorable/unfavorable rating in Fresno, California is 41/39.  Sarah Palin's favorable/unfavorable rating in Fresno, California is 35/28.

Obama won 50% of the vote in the county where Fresno, California is located.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cbdc3ca0-7948-4c09-b3c3-0008af50d939

Surprised that Palin would have a higher or the same net favorable rating as Obama in two cities located in counties that he won last November?

[Poundingtherock]

That's quite a serious charge that you are making.

Here's SurveyUSA's track record from the last election:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/images/Wall%20Street%20Chart.jpg

SurveyUSA also pretty much nailed CA-9, VA-gov, and NJ-Gov (unlike Democracy Corps(D) and the NY Times/CBS news, which embarrassed themselves with their NJ polling):

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2009/11/04/1641/

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2009/11/04/no-pollster-more-accurate-than-surveyusa-in-nj-governor-contest/

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2009/11/04/no-pollster-more-accurate-than-surveyusa-in-va-governor-contest/

[Poundingtherock]

Sbane,

If the data is just for the Louisville metro area, then his overall numbers in the county are very likely much worse.  Obama would obviously poll stronger in the metro area than he would in the non-metro portion of the county.

I'd say his Louisville numbers are bad but you are right, his numbers in metro Fresno (though note my point above about his countywide numbers being worse than his numbers in the metro area) are not that bad.

But what to make of Palin's numbers in these two metro areas?

[Poundingtherock]

Even if we add all those counties together, they probably come far short of the numbers coming out of Jefferson county.  But your point is well-taken.  Thanks for the link.

However, that wouldn't explain the numbers in Fresno (my point about the metro area would seem to hold here, though I'll concede the point as to Kentucky, see California)

http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_As_Of_081029.htm

I wouldn't call any "metro" area Palin's base.  For any Republican, the "base" areas are rural areas where he or she will have to run up huge numbers.  However, the Republican candidate will need to do well in "metro" areas like Fresno and Louisville to a lesser extent because in swing states, you cannot just count on the rural vote and will need to lessen the margin in cities such as Fresno and Louisville to win the state.

[Poundingtherock]

Louisville DMA in SurveyUSA is the following:

http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_As_Of_081029.htm (click on Kentucky)

Breckenridge
Bullitt
Grayson
Green
Hardin
Jefferson
Larue
Marion
Meade
Nelson
Shelby
Spencer
Taylor
Washington

[Poundingtherock]

They are relevant because the Louisville area and the Fresno area are relevant as swing counties.  They are similar to counties in states that could be competitive.

The Republican will probably need to lose the Louisville area slightly while winning Fresno county by a somewhat significant margin to win the election.

[Poundingtherock]

Of course, you didn't note SurveyUSA being the #1 pollster for CA-9, Va-Gov, and NJ-Gov.

The explanation is one that I've made before.  More of his supporters in Virginia and Missouri disapprove of him than in other states.  That doesn't mean they wouldn't vote for him against a Republican because they would.

He doesn't have much support in Kansas, Kentucky, and Alabama to begin with.

For any approval/disapproval poll, it matters what group is the one doing the disapproving.  If it's liberals/young people/African-Americans/left-of-center folks, they are irrelevant because they will vote for Obama against the Republican even if they disapprove of Obama.

So Obama would probably outpoll his approval rating in Missouri and Virginia by 8-10 points.  I don't recall a poll showing Corzine with over 40% approval and yet, he won 45% of the vote because people who disapproved of his performance were liberals/African-Americans who would never vote for the Republican.