Can any of the people who are defending Palin name one group that she'll appeal to who would have voted for Obama otherwise? She'll do well among old white men, the rich, and...? Moderates (of both parties) hate her, women hate her, minorities hate her, and young people hate her. Where exactly is she going to improve on McCain's numbers?
This is a best case for Palin. Assuming that the Republican handlers keep her away from the media like they do for the teabagger candidates, she might avoid getting her ass blown completely out of the water. Otherwise, its all downhill from there.
Well, she also appeals to social conservatives much more than McCain ever could. The thing about Sarah Palin is that the people that love her REALLY REALLY love her, and are motivated to show up and vote for her. As of right now, Obama does not have that big of an appeal among his base. I don't think Sarah Palin would win, but my point is that she wouldn't lose in a 400+ landslide because she would bring her supporters out to vote in droves. I don't think that the people that hate her would be as enthused and energized to vote against her.
Anyway, in your map, you have Sarah Palin doing better than McCain did against Obama, which would be a moral victory for the GOP, as Wilson is the only President to win re-election with less electoral votes than his first election. That being said, I think she could take Missouri, though it would be close (maybe swap Virginia for Missouri).
