What would an Obama defeat look like in 2012?

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

LOL.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

LOL.

The reference is obviously to Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Hint #1:

President Barack Obama has been able to get a large legislative agenda enacted into law; Jimmy Carter was completely ineffective at that.

Hint #2:

Statewide polarization of the vote is much more severe than it was in 1980. It would take nearly a 5% shift of the vote to turn Iowa (the deciding state of 2008) to the Republican nominee. Such a shift would give a result more like Kerry 2004 than like Carter 1980.  If you ignore the vote for John Anderson you find roughly a 5% shift of the votes that counted from Carter to Reagan.

 

You didn't realize I was joking?

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

If the economy goes further down the drain than it already has, and Obama is massively unpopular due to that and other reasons, then I can see the map being like this

Is this map unrealistic? Probably, but nothing's impossible in American politics, and if Obama's unpopularity borders on Carter or Bush levels, than I can see something like this happening. I mean, who ever imagined in 2006 that the Democrats were going to win North Carolina and Indiana, of all states?

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

If the economy goes further down the drain than it already has, and Obama is massively unpopular due to that and other reasons, then I can see the map being like this

Is this map unrealistic? Probably, but nothing's impossible in American politics, and if Obama's unpopularity borders on Carter or Bush levels, than I can see something like this happening. I mean, who ever imagined in 2006 that the Democrats were going to win North Carolina and Indiana, of all states?

The country is way to polarized for something on that scale. 

As of 2010, but who knows what's going to happen come 2012?