KY-SEN: Repeat after me - the most likely outcome is that Paul wins by 5-10 points. Second to that is that he wins narrowly - 1-5 points. Third is that he wins by double-digits. The chances of Conway winning come after that, but are probably too low for me to count seriously. The Dems should have nominated Mongiardo, at least they would have had a serious chance at winning.
Do you think the chances of Paul winning are that likely? I think Paul will win, but the polls have been closing up in KY (despite the whole Aqua Buddha ad controversy), and Conway's been hammering at Paul for his support for a $2000 Medicare deductible and a national sales tax. What makes you think that the chances of Conway winning are "probably too low for [you] to count seriously?"
