My Theory Re: 2012 and 2016 Elections

[OhioDem]

I believe that the 2012 elections and the 2016 will influence each other in a way not anticipated by many.  Mostly the influence will be a Republican one, but some Democrats may have some pieces of the chessboard to play to

2012: An incumbent President Obama and Republican Challengers
2016: Open (presumably on both sides-Biden isn't expected to run (he'll be 74 that year)

Facing a well-financed incumbent in Obama may be more than a lot of Republicans want to do if the polls  for Obama are good going into early next year. If Obama is consistently polling over 52% by April of next year, a lot of Republican front-runners may sit it out and wait until 2016 when they will have an open Dem field or face an aging Biden. In that case I see Sarah Palin and a host of nobodies as a sacrificial lamb running. That helps the Republicans in that Sarah gets flushed permanently out of the pipeline. Then someone like Daniels or a Petraeus who will have been home long enough to build some support domestically could run and win against a crowded field.

So I think it will be Smilin Sarah (she'd jump at the chance for lasting fame and the profits that come from it) and a host of people who may run for recognition and perennials such as Ron Paul.

[OhioDem]

If by 2012 Biden officially rules himself out for 2016, then some Democrats may try to familiarize themselves with the Dem base by traveling around "campaigning" for Obama and generally trying to make nice with various groups in advance of 2016.

They will also lobby Hillary in the hope that they can win over some support from the Secretary of State, and through her, her base.

[OhioDem]

Another deluded nostalgic for Hillary. Sometimes, I think that Hillary is too way smarter than many of her supporters.

• First of all she knows that no challenger to a sitting President has ever won the nomination, and if she couldn't win in an evenly matched field, she has no chance to win against an incumbent who has all the money and all of the support.  Plus, she was around to see what happened in 1968, 1980, and the heartbreaker in 2000, when the  Democrats were challenged from the left, and the party lost. So have a lot of other Democrats still able to vote in the primary, so no primary challenge.
• Next, it's already too late-she would have to resign and let foreign policy go to hell in order to fundraise. If she really wanted to contend in 2016, let alone 2012, she knows she could have stayed in Congress, and continued to travel around the country speaking to potential voters.  When she took the job as Secretary of State, she knew that the job would mean she would be absent a great deal of time from the States. She would also be out of the loop on domestic policy, and diplomatic/legal considerations would make her unable to fundraise properly
• So Hillary is out, and she's already said she's out permanently.

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