Absolutely irrelevant. Those polls are meaningless. Presidential campaigns hardly ever matter, and they are driven by the economy. Barring an economic miracle within the next year, Obama is toast, no matter who the GOP nominates. Why don't people on this forum get this concept? It's getting really tiring repeating myself.
If the election was held today, he would lose in a landslide. It will be close-ish if unemployment is around 8.5%, but anything above that he can kiss a second term goodbye, and 9%+ (as it is now) there's 0% chance he wins. It's really not that hard to understand.
"Meaningless" takes things too far. I'm willing to accept that no Republican could have won in, say, 2008, or that no Democrat could have won in, for instance, 1972. But you would need to make a very persuasive argument to convince me that campaigns and candidates don't matter in years like 2000 or 2004. History shows that they do matter on the margins, and totally dismissing them is way too deterministic.
Obama's personal favorability ratings are
very high given economic conditions, Congress has a record-low approval rating, and the GOP candidates are not popular among independents - these aren't things that you can just handwave while saying that the economy will determine the results.
