Wisconsin Megathread

[MasterJedi]

Cautiously optimistic...

[MasterJedi]

No snow in Dane so far. Just drizzles and very light rain. The weather is cooperating.

No snow in the Milwaukee area yet either. So while that helps WOW hopefully it dents the deep red north/central part of the state that has been getting hit all day.

[MasterJedi]

I’m Oak Creek was 482 at about 5:15, another 15 people in the room or streaming in.

[MasterJedi]

Remember, this is a nonpartisan election, Dallet would have to win by 10% for this to mean anything regarding November.

Remember, it's non-partisan in name only, it's very partisan and political so it means something. You can choose to believe it if you want or not though.

[MasterJedi]

Lipscomb and Taylor down early.

[MasterJedi]

Why are Milwaukee county supervisors unpopular? A few incumbents are in very tight races or losing outright.

Lipscomb while liberal supported repairing that damn dam when it was environmentally and fiscally responsible thing to do to knock it down but he listened to a few wealthy residents in Glendale who would be better off with the damn.

Steve Taylor is just a conservative ass so it's amazing he's down now.

Others not sure, really hoping those two go down though.

Looks like Republicans can't get their power move of removing the treasurer at least.

[MasterJedi]

Conservatives flipping out that 38% is too early to call the race and there's no way it can be called at that point.

[MasterJedi]

Ugh

Screnock is winning Racine County. That is actually a big surprise considering how the rest of the election has been going.

FoxConn

That could easily flip once the local tax increases happen that the public doesn't know about yet.

[MasterJedi]

100% in, Steve Taylor down by 23 votes, REALLY hope that holds.

Conservatives and Russian trolls out on FB in force, lamenting the liberal witch who brought in all the out of state money. Totally hilarious though, that's where almost all of Walker's money comes from.

[MasterJedi]

Any apparent explanation for why Dane is killing it while Milwaukee is underwhelming?

The Milwaukee Dem base is generally its minority population that doesn't really turn out much in off elections. Should be better in November though by how much we don't know.

[MasterJedi]

Dems theoretically have four pickup opportunities come fall, in all likelihood it's just 3, I don't think Ryan is going to lose.

Happy to see my hometown, Greendale, went for Dallet 2004-1945, usually is around 53-56% for the Republican so just good to see.

[MasterJedi]

The endorsements for the Milwaukee County Board by The Shepherd Expresses are like working in a salt factory. They're totally mad about King Larson losing and endorsed people strictly on if they were supported or opposed by Abele for actual issues. Good lord.

[MasterJedi]

The endorsements for the Milwaukee County Board by The Shepherd Expresses are like working in a salt factory. They're totally mad about King Larson losing and endorsed people strictly on if they were supported or opposed by Abele for actual issues. Good lord.

Glad to hear Larson lost.

Oh, sorry, I meant they're salty as hell he lost last Spring, so they're endorsements this time around are all based on who opposes Abele. They endorsed Steve Taylor which is hilariously sad.

[MasterJedi]

The endorsements for the Milwaukee County Board by The Shepherd Expresses are like working in a salt factory. They're totally mad about King Larson losing and endorsed people strictly on if they were supported or opposed by Abele for actual issues. Good lord.

Glad to hear Larson lost.

Oh, sorry, I meant they're salty as hell he lost last Spring, so they're endorsements this time around are all based on who opposes Abele. They endorsed Steve Taylor which is hilariously sad.

Gotcha. Taylor lost very narrowly. Did he concede?

Race hasn't officially been called yet I believe, last I looked it was 100% in with him being down by 23 votes. Nothing I've seen from either side.

[MasterJedi]

The endorsements for the Milwaukee County Board by The Shepherd Expresses are like working in a salt factory. They're totally mad about King Larson losing and endorsed people strictly on if they were supported or opposed by Abele for actual issues. Good lord.

Glad to hear Larson lost.

Oh, sorry, I meant they're salty as hell he lost last Spring, so they're endorsements this time around are all based on who opposes Abele. They endorsed Steve Taylor which is hilariously sad.

Gotcha. Taylor lost very narrowly. Did he concede?

Race hasn't officially been called yet I believe, last I looked it was 100% in with him being down by 23 votes. Nothing I've seen from either side.

Fingers crossed. Last night was a great night all around, practically everywhere. I'm surprisingly satisfied.

I agree, still would have liked to see Lipscomb go down over that damn dam though but you can't win them all.

[MasterJedi]

Scott Walker of all people is now afraid of a "blue wave".

Holy sh**t. My wife came into my room to bring me a ham and cheese sandwich and I literally screamed at her and slapped it out of her hand. She started yelling and swearing at me and I slammed the door on her. I'm so distressed right now I don't know what to do. I didn't mean to do that to my wife but I'm literally in shock from the results tonight. I feel like I'm going to explode. Why the f-cking f-ck is he losing? This can't be happening. I'm having a f-cking breakdown. I don't want to believe the world is so corrupt. I want a state without unions. I want Screnock to be on the Wisconsin Supreme Court and let me remove Democrats from the voter rolls. I cannot f-cking deal with this right now. It wasn't supposed to be like this, I thought he was polling well in Wisconsin?? This is so f-cked.

I believe wasting a ham and cheese sandwich is an impeachable offense in Wisconsin

No, that's beer, brats and cheese curds.

[MasterJedi]

In the end it wasn't a 23 vote margin for Steve Taylor, he lost by over 500, Oak Creek results weren't supported. No recount, the ahole is gone!

[MasterJedi]

Miles' map of WI-01 triggered my absolute hate of that district. It is the most gerrymandered district in the state. Even more so than WI-03.

Well with the absolute shift in the party and leaving it, and not standing up to Trump in the slightest, Ryan will no longer be getting my vote.

[MasterJedi]

J Miles Coleman has been producing some great maps by CD. In addition to Dane County and Greater Milwaukee, he's now done WI-08 and WI-01. What's really impressive is how well Dallet did in the Fox Valley. She clobbered Screnock in Appleton and Green Bay, and as far as I can tell, carried all but one of those cities major suburbs. I think the only sizeable town Screnock carried in Brown or Outagamie County was Suamico. Dallet carried all the rest, including De Pere, Allouez, Ashwabenon, Howard, Little Chute, Kimberly, Combined Locks, and Kaukauna.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/982092644422684672

A few of those Appleton suburbs are in WI-01.

No they're not, did you mean WI-06?

[MasterJedi]

Still think Walker has a better chance against Evers; Mitchell would almost certainly win the general against Walker. With the Supreme Court landslide, Evers seems in a better position than I thought previously, but it's still going to be a rough race in which Walker could very possibly win re-election.

Mitchell really is a nobody, he's not well known, has no real strength out in the country which Evers has won multiple times in the past and who the Dems need to win the race.

[MasterJedi]

Still think Walker has a better chance against Evers; Mitchell would almost certainly win the general against Walker. With the Supreme Court landslide, Evers seems in a better position than I thought previously, but it's still going to be a rough race in which Walker could very possibly win re-election.

Mitchell really is a nobody, he's not well known, has no real strength out in the country which Evers has won multiple times in the past and who the Dems need to win the race.

And how many people know who Evers is? Name recognition at this point doesn't matter that much, in my opinion. The last poll (Marquette) had 45% of Democrats undecided. Mitchell would be able to turnout more voters in Milwaukee, where Democrats have underperformed in recent elections.

We don't really need Milwaukee as much as we need someone who can perform well(or at least not tank nearly as bad as Hillary) in rural areas and out in Driftless. Milwaukee had pretty lackluster turnout in the Supreme Court and we still won by 12 points because Dallet did pretty well in rural areas and Dane County had murderous turnout rates.

Exactly, you can pain Mitchell as a "Milwaukee liberal" or others as a "Madison liberal", you can't do that with Evers.

[MasterJedi]

Still think Walker has a better chance against Evers; Mitchell would almost certainly win the general against Walker. With the Supreme Court landslide, Evers seems in a better position than I thought previously, but it's still going to be a rough race in which Walker could very possibly win re-election.

Mitchell really is a nobody, he's not well known, has no real strength out in the country which Evers has won multiple times in the past and who the Dems need to win the race.

And how many people know who Evers is? Name recognition at this point doesn't matter that much, in my opinion. The last poll (Marquette) had 45% of Democrats undecided. Mitchell would be able to turnout more voters in Milwaukee, where Democrats have underperformed in recent elections.

We don't really need Milwaukee as much as we need someone who can perform well(or at least not tank nearly as bad as Hillary) in rural areas and out in Driftless. Milwaukee had pretty lackluster turnout in the Supreme Court and we still won by 12 points because Dallet did pretty well in rural areas and Dane County had murderous turnout rates.

Exactly, you can pain Mitchell as a "Milwaukee liberal" or others as a "Madison liberal", you can't do that with Evers.

And I'm not a fan of MKE right now. We can't count on them for anything it seems. It seems that MKE voters couldn't care less, even with a MKE native on the ticket.

Much of the Dem base in Milwaukee is the poor minority communities who are so busy just trying to exist and not drown in life that they don't have the luxury of politics to follow these elections outside of the big ones. Which is sad since so many of these elections have such a large impact on their day to day lives and their ability to survive.

[MasterJedi]

Who’s the likeliest LG choice for Dems?

If the governor's race is wide open that's even wider. I would personally like to see Evers/Vinehout or Evers/Mitchell.

[MasterJedi]

Who’s the likeliest LG choice for Dems?

If the governor's race is wide open that's even wider. I would personally like to see Evers/Vinehout or Evers/Mitchell.

Evers/Vinehout sounds great to me. Evers/Mitchell would also work. Are you now on Team Evers?

I was always on his team or team Vinehout, he's looking like the stronger option so I will go there. Still like Vinehout though.

[MasterJedi]

Who’s the likeliest LG choice for Dems?

If the governor's race is wide open that's even wider. I would personally like to see Evers/Vinehout or Evers/Mitchell.

Evers/Vinehout sounds great to me. Evers/Mitchell would also work. Are you now on Team Evers?

I was always on his team or team Vinehout, he's looking like the stronger option so I will go there. Still like Vinehout though.

I'll take it! I'll be campaigning for him later on.

That means that Vinehout or Mitchell would have to refile to run in LG primary. As of now it's Mandela Barns and 3 people I've never heard of running for LG.

I imagine as we get closer there will be a few that drop out because they know they aren't going anywhere.