So what is everyone's definition of the Millennial Generation? Just so we know each other's viewpoint.
I personally ascribe to the 1982 starting point view, but think the end year is more 2000 - 2005.
And what are we calling the generation after?
I feel that the Millennial generation began in the early 80's (so 1982 is definitely a good year to start) and between the late-90's and 9/11.
Some are referring to the generation after the Millennials as the Homeland generation (from the Strauss-Howe theory) or Generation Z. Either one would work.
I'll generally agree with a start date of 1982, and suggest 2001 as an end-date.
With that in mind, the
Reagan/Bush cohorts (1982-1991) are almost certain to be at least leaning Democratic for the foreseeable future. These are the "young voters" that are so often referenced as being heavily Democratic. Despite being born under the most popular Republican administrations in the modern era, the major political figures of their childhood were President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore. Assuming that most people start to became politically aware and political active in their teenage years, this would mean that the first election that many Reagan/Bush cohorts truly paid attention to was the election of 2000. Indeed, some of the oldest '80s children would have been eligible to vote in 2000. The animosity that the controversy of that election generated towards George W. Bush in the minds of many younger voters was then certainly only exacerbated by the rest of his administration, which proved exceptionally unpopular.
The combination of the Early Millennials entering their teenage years - their first politically active years - with the unpopular Bush administration ultimately led most of them to vote strongly for then-Senator Barack Obama in 2008, an election in which nearly all of them were eligible to vote. This, along with Obama's successful re-election campaign in 2012, probably sealed the Democratic lock on these voters.
So then comes the matter of the Late Millennials, or the
Clinton cohorts (1992-2001). I am actually one of them, so my analysis of them may be biased slightly towards my own experience. However, based on their political history, I have to agree that they'll probably end up being politically malleable compared to their older counterparts. The Late Millennials were born either under the last days of President George H. W. Bush, or during the Presidency of Bill Clinton, and in all likelihood, they don't have many memories of either president. The first election that most of them were old enough to experience in a politically aware context was the election of 2008, when Barack Obama won in a wave of popular support. In 2012, most of them seem to have voted for Barack Obama - it's difficult to tell, as most sources only display the data for 18-24 year olds, or 18-29 year olds. However, considering Barack Obama's declining popularity, and the current ineffectiveness of congress and government in general, they are probably more politically independent than other age groups that have already been won over. We must also remember that the majority of the Late Millennials haven't even voted in a Presidential election yet. Those born from 1995-1998 will be voting for a Presidential candidate for the first time in 2016.
The first election in which all of the Late Millennials will be eligible to vote will be 2020 - we'll probably be able to make a more concrete statement as to party preferences after that election. But the Republicans will almost certainly not win them over if they continue to nominate socially conservative candidates who appeal to their base. They need to find a moderate candidate, who can unite swing voters and independents under a conservative message, without getting bogged down in the culture war issues of yesteryear. If they do this, they'll have a good shot at uniting the Late Millennials into a new, electable GOP coalition.
The
"New Silents" or "Homelanders" - those born after 2001 - will be entering their teenage years over the next couple of political cycles. If the GOP were to become a little more forward-thinking, they could begin winning over the youth vote of the 2020's. If any group is up for grabs, it's this generation, and considering the current antics of the GOP, it may be too late to fight for the Late Millennials.
