Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Inmate Trump]

When Trump starts campaigning with Jones, it's all over for Kemp.

[Inmate Trump]

Some Trumper coworkers were discussing this today.

Basically they're very mad Trump has endorsed Perdue.  They want Trump to back Jones.  They're still supporting Jones.  They're worried Perdue will split the anti-Kemp vote and cause Kemp to come out on top by default.  They said Perdue has already lost statewide once and they don't want to go with him.

[Inmate Trump]

Some Trumper coworkers were discussing this today.

Basically they're very mad Trump has endorsed Perdue.  They want Trump to back Jones.  They're still supporting Jones.  They're worried Perdue will split the anti-Kemp vote and cause Kemp to come out on top by default.

Don’t they know that Georgia has runoffs?

Who knows?  I didn't engage with them, and generally keep my mouth shut when politics comes up at the workplace.

[Inmate Trump]

My hunch is that the primary campaign will not end up being very kind to Perdue.

I'll bake in my first "way too early" prediction for the GOP primary as a 59-37 win for Kemp.

You think Kemp will win it outright, or in a runoff?

[Inmate Trump]

Georgia allows voters to select whichever primary they want to vote in.

I'm going to vote in the GOP primary for Kemp.

Obviously, I'll go with Abrams for the general no matter what.  But at least Kemp tried to (somewhat) stand up for democracy and not blindly go along with Trump.  Perdue would sell us out, and he's already admitted to that.

[Inmate Trump]

Perdue's legacy is going to be even more embarrassing if he loses this primary.

I really don't know that Kemp will win it.  And with Jones, it's going to a runoff, which is worse for Kemp's potential IMO.

I'm betting Perdue wins it.  But I also think he'll perform worse against Stacey Abrams than would Kemp (though he may do better than Jones).

[Inmate Trump]

She clearly made a huge error with that photo op.

Who on her team suggested that'd be a good idea?

[Inmate Trump]

I never thought I’d say this but….

I can’t wait to cast my vote for Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger in the Republican primary.

Duncan should’ve run for re-election, he might have won.

[Inmate Trump]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

F Donald Trump.

[Inmate Trump]

Refusing to concede I think is extremely petty of both of them. Of course Trump's approach was extreme and far more dangerous, by firing up his supporters to stage an insurrection.

Agreed. Abrams was wrong to refuse to concede. It reflects poorly on her, and she's going to lose in November (though I will be voting for her).

[Inmate Trump]

I wonder whether Geoff Duncan regrets not running for reelection? Given that even Raffensberger pulled it out and avoided a runoff, the guy could easily have won as well?

I feel almost certain he does regret it.

But there seems to be no love loss between him and other Republicans. I could see him supporting Biden (or another Dem) in 2024, if Trump is the nominee.

[Inmate Trump]

Here's a map showing turnout as of Sunday by county - as a share of "% of '18" as shown by Georgia Votes (still not entirely clear what this is a measurement of, as the numbers don't line up with total 2018 EV or 2018 EV on this comparable day). Colors are in gradients of 10 points (the lightest shade is <30% & the darkest shade is >100%).

DRA data available here.



I also thought it'd be interesting to see how each grouping of counties compares to their presidential margins in 2020. This is what it shows:



Other than Athens-Clarke & Richmond skewing the data by being sub-30%, there's a fairly clear trend (though Bibb and Dougherty being in the 40s at the moment breaks things a tad as well; the remainder of the category was Trump +39).

I'm stupid, can you help me understand what this means? Good for Dems/bad for Dems?