Out on a limb

[Inmate Trump]

Assuming Dean gets the nomination, I see a likely (though NOT AT ALL certain) victory for Bush.

I won't say if I think it'll be a close election or a landslide for Bush; all that depends on Iraq and the economy by Nov. '04.  If both of those go down for Bush (they're looking up right now), it could really hurt him.

I actually think Dean would do better against Bush than some of the other frontrunners like Clark and Gephardt.  I think Bush wins all the states he carried in 2000 except possibly Ohio and New Hampshire.  I believe Bush will gain Oregon, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and POSSIBLY Wisconsin, Michigan, and even California.  Yes, I said California.

For the Senate, I think the GOP has about an 85-90% chance of winning in my state of GA.  I think Republicans will most likely win in every other southern state, except Florida and/or Louisiana, where the races will be too close to call, I predict.

In South Dakota, I really do believe Daschle could get kicked out by Thune.  Voter fraud messed Thune up last time; had the Dems not pulled that stunt, Thune would be in the senate right now.  I think the voter fraud of the 2002 election being public knowledge, S.D. being a pretty conservative Republican state, and the fact that Daschle attacked Bush on the eve of war may be just enough to get Thune in and Daschle out.

The governor races don't seem too much of a concern.  There aren't really that many critical seats open this cycle anyhow.

As far as the House goes....Man, does anybody actually see a situation where the House goes Dem?  Be honest now.

[Inmate Trump]

House stays GOP with Texas ruling today.

Gov Holden is toast in MO.

We are already preparig comparisons of Daschle and what he says and votes in DC pieces for the paper.  ( me and some friends) to hit every little paper in editorials and letters to the editor.  Just showing them the facts.  Quote of what he said and how he voted and statements he said in DC.


When is filing deadline for Senate seat as Dems in GA still only have a weak state senator?

The filing deadline for Ga is, I think, sometime in late April.  Don't know an exact date though.  So far, there are NO major Dems running, which is a big problem for them.  All potential candidates that stood a chance have declined to run.

On the Rep side, Johnny Isakson looks to be the frontrunner, with Mac Collins coming in at second.  I'm a Collins support myself, he's the more conservative one.  Isakson is very soft on abortion, so he's out, in my view - I really hope he doesn't get the nomination b/c I'd hate to have to vote for him.  That being said, I believe any Republican candidate would win here, in a state where Bush gets at least a 60% approval rating.

[Inmate Trump]

How is Hermain Cain on the issues and does he have a chance at all?

Oh, Cain would be a great senator.  Actually, he's my favorite of the three running, Collins being second and Isakon third.  The problem is, Cain doesn't have a chance at the nomination.  My whole thing is, I don't want Isakson to win, so my only option to derail him is to vote for Collins, who does have a chance at the nom...which isn't a bad thing b/c I like him too.

[Inmate Trump]

Any polls out there yet?

I'm sure there are, but I haven't seen them.  I'm basing that on just the pure fact that Isakson is pretty well known and respected here.  He has run campaigns for governor, and (I think) senate all through the '90s and he came real close to winning once or twice.  Collins doesn't really have the name recognition and resume that Isakson has and Cain has less name recognition than Collins, plus there's the whole black factor...which doesn't affect my vote, but it does have an impact on others.

Then there's the fact that the guy whose seat is being fought for is extremely popular and he seems to be abandoning his own party by being the only (as far as I know) MAJOR Democrat endorsing Bush in 2004 - which could really hurt any Dem running for the senate seat, especially if Zell actively campaigns for Bush in Ga.  Zell could literally run for anything he wanted to and win in Georgia.

[Inmate Trump]

Which is the African American, I forget?

That would be Cain.

[Inmate Trump]

Bush would still be favored and is ahead in fact in all polls in head to head vs clark.

Yea.

Actually, in a few polls that I've seen, Dean does best against Bush than ALL the other candidates.  They all still lose to Bush, but Dean does best...according to some polls, anyway.