Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Inmate Trump]

Marist just tweeted that approval ratings for the President are execrable in Minnesota (which he barely lost), Michigan (which he barely won), and Wisconsin (which he barely won). In each, the President's approval is in the mid-30s.

It is amazing how rapidly the Midwestern states have turned against Trump. The tax cuts and his failure to reverse outsourcing are probably the main reasons why, and I think the tariffs will hurt him further. I still think Trump has a 50-50 chance in winning Wisconsin and Michigan in 2020, but it's going to be tough.

He has a better chance at winning Wisconsin than Michigan. His margin of victory was smaller in Michigan and it voted more so for Obama in 2012 than Wisconsin.

They're both tossups IMO but he's more likely to win Wisconsin or Pennsylvania than Michigan. If you put a gun to my head I think he loses all three.

There are still plenty of morons allowed to vote who think Obama/Hillary destroyed their livelihoods or whatever.  These people, coupled with Russia probably being much more heavily involved in the 2020 election than anywhere near the level they were in 2016, could easily reelect him.

[Inmate Trump]

"Stay humble." "Which means it's really 65%." How f***ing delusional are these people!? And that includes Trump.

These people are right here on this forum.  Trump could literally take a dump beside the Statue of Liberty and wipe his butt with the flag and these people would start an all out bidding war to own Trump's feces flag.  They are obsessed; they are unhinged; most of them own some type of weapon.  This is a cult, and it is running the United States government.  Every intelligent citizen should be frightened.

[Inmate Trump]

Note how much lower No Opinion is with Trump. His Approval Minus Disapproval is a better comparison.

And his net approvals are still the furthest underwater. Also the fact that he has never been above water outside of his two weeks' honeymoon should be telling. Maybe Trump does pretty well in 2020, but Clinton, Reagan, and Obama all had horrible midterms. And then there was Carter who had an OK one only to get blasted in the ass in 1980.

None of those men were traitors willing to commit treason in order to win elections; Trump is.

[Inmate Trump]

5. He can cheat. That might be more effective than anything else. Unlike the other three, it is consistent with his character.

And it already worked for him once.  The reason he's so friendly with Putin is that he knows Putin helped him win.

[Inmate Trump]

Pew Research American Trends Survey, July 30 - Aug. 12, 4581 adults (change from Feb. -- this is a semiannual survey)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (nc)

Strongle disapprove almost a majority

That is a huge level of discontent -- nearly half of the public considers him profoundly offensive without an economic downturn or a military debacle.

AP/NORC, Aug. 16-20, 1055 adults (change from June)

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+3)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

At this point, a majority of Americans are political dissidents. It is hard to imagine any President reaching this level of unpopularity so early in his Presidency. Many who held their noses and voted for Trump now regret that they can smell what they voted for, 24 hours a day and seven days a week unless they have and use passports.

I hope so. If Trump loses his soft support, he's done. I still worry that he could coast on low expectations or by denigrating his eventual 2020 opponent enough, though.

I worry about the help he will receive from Russia.  Depending on the closeness of the vote, Russian interference on behalf of Trump could certainly have an impact again.

[Inmate Trump]

Pew Research American Trends Survey, July 30 - Aug. 12, 4581 adults (change from Feb. -- this is a semiannual survey)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (nc)

Strongle disapprove almost a majority

That is a huge level of discontent -- nearly half of the public considers him profoundly offensive without an economic downturn or a military debacle.

AP/NORC, Aug. 16-20, 1055 adults (change from June)

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+3)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

At this point, a majority of Americans are political dissidents. It is hard to imagine any President reaching this level of unpopularity so early in his Presidency. Many who held their noses and voted for Trump now regret that they can smell what they voted for, 24 hours a day and seven days a week unless they have and use passports.

I hope so. If Trump loses his soft support, he's done. I still worry that he could coast on low expectations or by denigrating his eventual 2020 opponent enough, though.

I worry about the help he will receive from Russia.  Depending on the closeness of the vote, Russian interference on behalf of Trump could certainly have an impact again.

That goes without saying. But the Russian dissemination of fake news and manipulation wouldn't be able to work if people weren't still willing to give Trump a pass. That's the real problem.

True.  However, with the ever increasing insecurities of many state’s voting machines (due solely to Republican ineffectuality), I’m concerned that Russia’s role in 2020 will be far more impactful than in 2016.

[Inmate Trump]

I do find it amazing how Bush's approval rating was over 20 pts lower than a guy who has all three networks and 2/3 cable networks talking scandal, impeachment, Watergate-style stories on him 24/7. In todays day and age, I see 44-50% approvals and I kinda shrug and say, "Meh". If it was 22% or 24%, then I'd be like, "Holy cow."

It took Bush 2 terms of disasters to get there. Trump is little over a quarter through his first term

Actually, about a third. The economy has yet to melt down on this President, and there are not great numbers of body bags returning from an American war.

This President has a core support that seems to accept him no matter what he does, and that explains why he does not yet have disapproval below the high 30s nationwide at any time, and that his disapproval ratings are remarkably stable (if unusually high for a president after a year and a half).

Considering the economy is pretty good, I’m actually surprised his poll numbers aren’t higher.  If he would stop tweeting every stupid thought in his head, his numbers would probably be higher.  That’s impossible for him to do though.

[Inmate Trump]

I don't think Trump's approvals will change more than 2-3 points in either direction until at least the midterms. That might shake things up a bit.

TBH, Trump right now is about two points below where Obama's approvals were when Obama managed to lose like 60 House seats in 2010. Just worth keeping in mind.

And with much higher strong disapproval numbers than Obama's.

Were the house races in 2010 the same ones up for election/reelection in 2018?  Don't they generally favor Republicans anyway?  I'm a moron and I'm lazy.

[Inmate Trump]

I don't think Trump's approvals will change more than 2-3 points in either direction until at least the midterms. That might shake things up a bit.

TBH, Trump right now is about two points below where Obama's approvals were when Obama managed to lose like 60 House seats in 2010. Just worth keeping in mind.

And with much higher strong disapproval numbers than Obama's.

Were the house races in 2010 the same ones up for election/reelection in 2018?  Don't they generally favor Republicans anyway?  I'm a moron and I'm lazy.

I don't quite understand the question.  All 435 House races are up every two years.  Were you thinking of Senate races?  Those are six-year terms, so the 2010 class was up again in 2016.

Yea, I was thinking Senate.  Whoops!  Really revealed my stupidity there.

[Inmate Trump]

A few other notes from the ABC/WP poll:

- This is Trump's worst showing to date in this poll (previously he's been at -22 a few times)

- 49% say Congress should start impeachment proceedings, 46% say no

- 63% support Mueller probe (52% strongly support), 29% oppose

I'm impressed that nearly half of all Americans already support impeachment -and this is before Mueller (or rather Rosenstein) has released his final report to Congress.  

If Mueller finds evidence of conspiracy and money laundering, and Trump's clear involvement in those crimes, imagine where the numbers will be then... 

That won't translate enough to the necessary Republican votes for conviction in the Senate though. So really, it doesn't matter.

Exactly.

Impeachment isn't a goal anyone should be working toward unless and until Republicans come on board.  He's obviously a destructive president who shouldn't be in the position he's in (give me Mike Pence over Trump any day), but there's really nothing that can be done until the GOP step up, even just a little.

[Inmate Trump]

Atlas posters after two or three polls show a Trump bump--"Don't believe it!! They are outliers!!"

Atlas posters after two or three polls show a Trump fall--(Orgasmic moans)

Why are you so bothered that people don't like this man? LOL.

Maybe because your double standards are so unabashed and obvious...

What’s the double standard exactly?

I’m sorry, but if Obama said even a handful of the things Trump has said I wouldn’t like him either.  If anyone said POWs aren’t war heroes, that is immediately disqualifing, or it should be.

[Inmate Trump]

Aside from election hacking and Russian interference, how on earth can a president be this unpopular and win reelection?

[Inmate Trump]

I doubt ND is just an outlier.

Cramer is up by a lot too in the Senate election.

[Inmate Trump]

Georgia: PPP, Oct. 5-6, 729 voters

Approve 50
Disapprove 46

Ugh!

[Inmate Trump]

Colorado, like Virginia, isn't quite a swing state anymore.

[Inmate Trump]

When the summary of the report came out I was worried Trump would get a bounce and end u in the mid/high 40's. That does not seem to have materialized.

I was too, but I think we're in the clear.

I think Trump’s temperament and demeanor just won’t ever allow him to get over 50%.  He will never be a popular president even if he wins re-election.

Knock on wood.