He doesn't have that far to go, as he's currently down to 39% according to the latest Gallup poll.
So say his numbers continue to decline, and by the 2020 election he is somewhere in the 20% range. Assuming he doesn't simply decide not to run, and if there is no serious third party candidate to screw things up, does he have any actual hope of winning with those kind of numbers?
Also assuming he doesn't get us into a war in the hopes of bumping up his numbers (I wouldn't put it past him to do something like that).
Feel free to post maps. Here's mine:
Democrat: 333
Trump: 205
I feel like I'm being generous to the Fuhrer, but I think he only barely holds onto Texas and Georgia, and manages to still carry Ohio, but by a lesser margin than he did in 2016. I think North Carolina will be close but flips, with Arizona actually being a more decisive victory for the Democrat. Alaska and (to a much lesser extent) Montana flirt with swinging to the Dems, but ultimately go to the GOP again. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, somewhere in the mid 50% for each, and Wisconsin and New Hampshire both in the lower 50s. Minnesota goes back to being a stalwart Dem state. Florida is bipolar as usual.
