How exactly can Trump win Pennsylvania against Hillary? (user search)
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  How exactly can Trump win Pennsylvania against Hillary? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How exactly can Trump win Pennsylvania against Hillary?  (Read 3808 times)
Inmate Trump
GWBFan
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« on: March 10, 2016, 03:38:58 PM »

He won't win PA.

He does have a chance with OH and FL...he could take both. But even then, he wouldn't win. He'd need to win some combination of VA, IA, CO, NC, WI, MN, and NV in order to get to 270--in addition to OH and FL.

PA won't happen for him. OH and FL might go to him.

But VA, IA, WI, MN, and NV are all likely Hillary states at this point, with CO also being a good possibility for her. Trump could take NC, but I really doubt his chances in the other states I mentioned.

The absolute most optimistic electoral scenario for Trump would see him winning 262 electoral votes. That's even with him taking OH and FL.
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Inmate Trump
GWBFan
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,125


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -7.30

P P P
« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2016, 03:44:04 PM »

He does have a chance with OH and FL...

I just can't see how that is possible if Hispanic turnout sees a pretty heavy bump, which looks like that might be the case. The FL Hispanic electorate is growing very fast and has been moving heavily towards Democrats in recent years - If Romney couldn't win it in 2012, it's just hard to see Trump winning it now in a better economy with likely record non-white turnout / Democratic support.

Yea, you're probably right.

I was trying to giving Trump the best chances he'd have, and I think he *could* win FL, but the chances are probably really low. Just not as low as PA.
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