UK local by-elections, 2024 (user search)
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June 20, 2024, 11:42:56 PM
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Author Topic: UK local by-elections, 2024  (Read 8579 times)
adma
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« on: February 23, 2024, 05:42:33 PM »

I’d even suggest that in the fabled “Canada 1993” outcome Berwickshire et al might be one of the survivors.

Note that the two survivors in 1993 were not ones that one would guess generically. Charest's majority at Sherbrooke was very large in 1988 but then this was true of many other provincial ridings in Quebec that year and it had only a very weak PC history before 1984, while the PC majority at Saint John in 1988 was only 4.5pts: Wayne actually increased the PC majority there amidst complete national collapse in 1993!

Saint John was never even a Tory stronghold. It was always a swing

Exactly! If a Canada '93 situation were to somehow occur (and as the Canadian House of Commons is a lot smaller than the British one so two seats would translate to about four and a half) then the list of last survivors would likely also be distinctly odd.

Another detail that helped Elsie Wayne in '93, one that's been lost in the sands of time: the '88 Lib candidate ran as an independent, getting over 10% of the vote.  Combined, the "united Liberal" vote outpolled Elsie by just under a point, if one seeks to make a "Kingswood argument" on behalf of the Libs here...
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adma
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,802
« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2024, 05:50:04 AM »

A cousin of "Canada 1993" was "Quebec 2011" federally, i.e. nobody would have guessed that Ahuntsic would have been one of the 4 Bloc Quebecois survivors...
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